DMAI wants the government to extend the NRHM till 2017 with radical operational changes

The Disease Management Association of India (DMAI), a non-profit organisation propagating disease management concept and tools in the country, has urged the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of the central government to reconsider its recommendations for scrapping of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) as the NRHM has made an impact on the lives of the rural population in the country.

The DMAI suggestion in this regard was put forth by the DMAI president and director Rajendra Pratap Gupta in a letter addressed to PAC chairman Dr Murli Manohar Joshi recently.

The NRHM was launched in the country on April 12, 2005 for a period of seven years i.e. from 2005 to 2012 for providing integrated comprehensive primary health care services, specially to the poor and vulnerable sections of the society. It means that NRHM will get expired by 2012. However, seeing its impact on the rural population, the government is thinking of a possible extension for another five years. In this regard the government had asked PAC to review the NRHM. However, in its reports the PAC has recommended on scrapping the NRHM scheme.

However Gupta suggested, “NRHM is a very useful programme and has been successful in having its presence felt even in the remote parts of the country. However, there are many radical administrative and operational changes needed to be made in the present format of NRHM.”

He suggested that with proper administrative and operational tactic, this programme certainly will have the power to create desired impact in the rural health scene. In his recommendations to the planning commission on the changes needed in NRHM for the 12th five year plan, Gupta suggested that technology must be leveraged in NRHM for accountability, transparency and telehealth and that 12th five year plan must consider opportunities to digitise NRHM in all spheres of its implementation.

He said, “There are many important changes that needs to be undertaken in the NRHM, but of all changes the first and foremost change should be to improve the quality of medicines that is being supplied at the NRHM centres. Secondly, minor surgeries are not allowed in Primary Health Centres (PHCs) as of now. This should be changed and the government must allow minor surgeries in the PHCs as it would help reduce a lot for hassles for the villagers and bring revenue for the government as well.”

Other issue that he had highlighted in the letter was on the inadequate fund flow on time which could lead to corruption among the people working at the lowest level in PHC and sub centres.

“I have met people who were not paid salary for months, and also discovered the fact that the funds that were supposed to be sent for 2010 were received by the centres in mid January 2011. Such delays must be stopped with immediate effect as this clearly will encourage and lead to corruption as people drawing a monthly salary of Rs.5000-8000 won’t be able to sustain their family without salary for months. Either they will resort to bribing, selling the government supplies or starts absconding and working for employers in parallel. Thus I suggest that the fund meant for a sub centre or PHC must be transferred in advance for the quarter if not half yearly,” Gupta points out.

He put special stress on telehealth adoption goals for NRHM and other healthcare projects, as setting up and manning the physical infrastructure with qualified professionals at remote places is nonviable. To stress the importance of telehealth adoption in the country the Telemedicine Society of India (TSI) is organising a three-day conference Telemedicon’ 11 in Mumbai from November 11 to 13. TSI is completely dedicated to the promotion of telehealth in India and is being organised at a time when there is a big push from the government and private players in the field of telehealth in India.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.pharmabiz.com/NewsDetails.aspx?aid=61977&sid=1

www.telemedicon11.com

Inaugural Speech delivered by Rajendra Pratap Gupta on March 14th 2011, at ‘Spardha’ - A national level event organized by VAMNICOM , Pune, for students of Management & Agricultural institutes across India

Good Morning friends !

I feel honoured to be here and am thankful to my friend, Dr.Yash Patil and the Director, Dr.Reddy, for giving me an opportunity to be a part of your National event, ‘Spardha’ .

Whenever I address students - the young , energetic and vibrant crowd , I am quite convinced that India will change . You are all full of great energy and ideas, but sadly , at present , India does not offer you a readymade & attractive platform due to our inefficient leaders at the helm of affairs and corrupt bureaucracy who are eating away the money and opportunities meant for the common man . But I see that the winds of change are on the horizon , and I believe that each one of you will push India ahead ; to set a new bench mark for the world in all spheres.

Today , India stands at a very critical juncture , and institutes like VAMNICOM hold the key for either India’s meteoric rise or a gradual fall !!

I was going through your chairman, Dr.Chandra Pal Singh Yadav’s message , and I was impressed with his views that we need to support farmers ,workers and weaker sections of the society for the development of this country. I believe that the education imparted via VAMINICOM aims to deliver that goal . This is exactly what India needs today .

It is an ironical fact that IIM’s and IIT’s have lost direction and failed to deliver the mission with which they had started with. Today, IIT’s & IIM’s are about fat packages from MNC’s . In fact , they have become subservient to MNC’s packages and are doing little for this country’s betterment . In these times , we want you all to pass out of VAMNICON and set goals that will re-define the future of this great nation.

Let me put things in a little perspective so that you do not have illusions in future when you move out of the campus. I believe that you will pass out this year or next year, depending if you are in 1st year or the final year. Some of you will get back to their family business , some will seek jobs and some will become entrepreneurs . No matter which path you take , the formula for success would remain the same . So let’s understand the realities of professional life :

Each one of you needs to have two goals in mind – Urgent ( short term ) & Important (Long term )goals . ‘Urgent’ is about the present i.e. your studies, to clear the exams with good marks . ‘Important’ is about future . What are you going to do after passing out from VAMNICON ? Don’t ever commit the mistake that President Obama did ! When President Obama started his election campaign, he talked about healthcare reforms & the Wall Street reforms. By the time he became the President , things had changed, but he still focused all his energies on the ‘Urgent’ & forgot the ‘Important’; that the market conditions had changed and there was a deep recession . People were losing the jobs every hour . President Obama still kept working on his ‘Urgent’ agenda,not realizing that the conditions had changed . He accomplished Healthcare reforms & Wall Street reforms !! Mid-term elections came in for the congress . President Obama had missed out addressing the Important , and so he lost to the Republicans in 2010, and finally , he is fighting to save the essence of the bills that he had passed on healthcare & Wall Street . The point is, never loose sight of the changed circumstances and keep focusing on both the urgent & the important . Else , you will have to compromise to survive . We are living in a very dynamic and an ultra -volatile world .

We live in a material world :. Don’t try to kill your desires. Reality in life is that people worship knowledge, position, influence & money. So you need to have each of them if you want to be successful. You must aim to be debt free by the age of 40 and, have a house , vehicle and savings good enough to last you without working for a year or two. It is extremely important to draw a line as to how much is much ? If you do not have those boundaries, you are bound to get into the mad rush for making money without realizing where to stop ! This is what our current politicians are doing . They lack moral boundaries, and they go for more and more and do not stop before nature pulls the carpet under their feet !!

Getting settled in life : How many of you want to get settled in life soon? Well let me quote you an interaction with one of my dear friends – Shiv Khera . He is the biggest motivational Guru in India . Sometime in 2009, we were coming out of The Grand Hyatt hotel , and he was discussing with me about the new path he had undertaken that required tough decisions . So I asked him ‘Shiv , can you leave your book writing and speeches and join politics full time ? To which , he immediately replied ‘ I am not yet settled’ . Imagine , if a person who is the highest paid speaker and the best motivational writer, is not settled , how will people like you and me be settled ? So it is wrong to assume that we ever get settled in life . Life is about facing constant challenges. Have you ever seen an ECG ? If ECG comes out as a straight line , the patient is dead !

You cannot have a long ride without a puncture : While all of you will do well in life , but you can never drive a vehicle always in the fifth gear . Long rides cannot be without a puncture . Some time , you will feel that you weren’t wrong but still you were punished . Never mind , even Gods were punished without fault ! Lord Ram & Lord Christ were punished for no fault of theirs . But do fight back for what is right !!

Keep reading books and newspapers to update yourself on the global and national scene & across sectors . If five friends came together , you could buy one book each and read five books . Form a habit to read at least two news papers a day . But learn to appreciate the difference between education , knowledge and wisdom . A highly educated person might not necessarily be a wise person .

Stay Fit : As you move up the corporate ladder , you will need to be mentally fit and physically active . Devote 5 % of your daily time for yoga , mediation and gym Working is important but so is networking . How many of you are on facebook , Orkut or twitter ? How many of you are on a professional networking group ? Professional networking groups are a powerful professional tool for career progression . Please do not ignore them .

Always look for new ideas & not become copy cats : I was heading a large retail chain as a COO, and every time in the review meetings , I would solve the operational problems with a new approach . Once , my team member asked me , ‘Sir, every time you come out with something new , but one day you will run out of ideas , then what will you do ? I asked him “Since how many years river Ganges is coming out from Gangotri ? . He replied ‘ Since ages’. I asked him again ‘has it stopped ?’ . He replied ‘never’. He got the answer . That there is no limit to new ideas . While you are working in an organization , ensure that your work & experience profile changes every 2-3 years . Else , you would be like a truck driver with 20 years of experience. Remember that a truck driver faces the same road conditions every year . So his actual experience is just one year !!

You are amongst the five % Indians that are graduates . So you are also responsible for the remaining 95 %......... Let me ask you a question ? I know of a family where 56 % of the income goes in paying loans , 30 % of the income goes in running the household and another 10 % is miscellaneous expenditure , and only 4 % is invested to increase the income or to create assets . How would you rate such a family? Well to do, not good not bad or in a serious financial crisis ? So here are the facts about Indian economy : 55.9 % of the GDP goes into servicing the debt, approximately 30 % is the cost of running the government and bureaucracy, 2.5 % goes to subsidies , 2.6 % goes to defense . One fact is clear that only about 4 % of the GDP is going towards asset creation or wealth creation in this country . This is a very serious issue facing the nation.

How will the country be prosperous which spends about 96 % of its income with no wealth creation strategies & adds 17 million people to its population every year !!

If our country borrows Rs.80 lac a minute how will its citizens be prosperous ? Similarly, If the 99 % of the system is corrupt , you & your family members and even your next generation will certainly be harassed unless the system gets changed ?

Let me ask you another question. If you were earning handsomely after working hard, how many of you would share your monthly income with you neighbours or servants after paying your taxes ? We keep hearing that the fruits of growth has not reached the masses.

Common man will not reap the fruits of India’s prosperity unless he is the one driving it !! Why should someone share the earnings of his hard work with someone who hasn’t ? This is where each one of you can make a real difference . Agriculture continues to employ 65 % of its population and contributes just 17.2 % of the GDP. There is so much to be done but none at the policy maker level knows what to do ?

A few weeks back I was with the policy advisor of Rahul Gandhi , and we were discussing about how we could transform rural India . He informed me that he was advising Rahul to create 600 new districts at a cost of USD 1 billion each to transform India, but he could not convince me as to how 600 new districts transform the population’s standard of living ? After an hour of discussion , he admitted that the future of the villages was doomed ? Should we let this to happen ? We know the problem , lets take the challenge to change the fate of these ‘doomed’ villages . Each one of you can contribute effectively . We know that the government might not have the right answers but we must not just find solutions but also go ahead and implement them.

Rural India can transform if we understand that the basic requirement for such a transformation is having ‘transactions’ in rural India . The good thing about money is that whenever it changes hands , the hand becomes heavier ! I request you to think of creating business models that can utilize the local inputs and create products and services that leads to more transactions for rural India . Co-operatives & SHG’s ( Self Help Groups) are central to rural India’s transformation. Think about the 1.55 lac post offices , 2.38 lac gram panchayats and millions of kirana stores . Can we not create rural millionaires out of 700 million rural Indians ? We need micro-preneurs & agri-preneurs, if we want to change the rural landscape . Due to uncertainty of variable factors and no clear political vision for the prosperity for rural India , people do not want to remain in agriculture any more . If they get a job they keep moving and are selling their land. Because of the haphazard developmental policies , land and employment under agriculture is decreasing . In the western world, people are migrating to rural areas for better quality of life and in India , it is just the opposite, as Indians are migrating to urban areas. God forbid, if India ever faced a famine or severe draught , what will happen to a billion people ? Have we planned for it ? Can we guarantee it will never happen ?? We have not been able to tackle inflation even ??

A day before yesterday , I read that government wants to open the FDI in retail for metros and we have heard in the past that ‘Mumbai is being made Shanghai’ . So if we are creating hype and investing in metros , why should people not migrate ? We must create more ‘Mumbai’s in India rather than trying to create ‘Shanghai’ in Mumbai . Government has always said that opening up the FDI in retail will improve the supply chain. But we know that FDI in supply chain is already permitted . So we know that this is a wrong reason to justify FDI in retail.

Most of our growth is inspired due to the growth in China. India woke up for growth when China started growing at 10 + % per year with a much larger population . The current growth in India is about GDP and sensex . India’s growth is only applicable & benefits people who read The Economic Times . Such a growth has no strong fundamentals .

The government has allocated Rs,500 crore for skills development programme, and Rs. 40000.00 crore in NAREGA . This is, when we are facing acute shortage of trained man power in every sector at every level ! If a few thousand crore was invested in skills development for rural India , it would create a lasting value for the rural people and the economy

Wastage of agriculture produce due to lack of proper infrastructure is to the tune of Rs.30000.00 per year . Can we address this issue ? Some of you go and start a daily transportation service that carries the farm produce to the nearest town for sale . Imagine the value addition it would bring to the farmers ? You charge them a fixed percentage of sale ?? All will make money in the process and Agriculture will be lucrative for farmers – something that is missing today .

Can some of you go and set up low cost rural cold chain facilities for rural India Can some of you set up international technical collaborations for enhancing the quality and quantity of farm produce India has the largest number of cattle but not milk products . Can some of you create more Amul’s & Warna’s in India ?

India is the largest producer of milk in the world but not the top most exporter !! India is endowed with livestock resources of vast genetic diversity and accounts for about 11 percent of the world livestock population. The country boasts of 55 per cent of the world buffalo population, 20 per cent of the goat population and 16 per cent of the cattle population in the world. India has the largest cattle and buffalo population in the world and holds the second rank with respect to goat and sheep world population. Some of you could take food processing techniques to rural India

Kiwi fruit is sold at Rs. 25 a piece and it is given to pigs in Manipur as the road infrastructure is so bad that the fruits are unfit for consumption by the time they reach the markets . Some of you develop technologies to save such a wastage

Healthcare reaches only 24 % of rural India . Some of you could create a viable rural healthcare delivery model .Some of you should go and set up telemedicine centres across rural India

Some of you could maybe set up veterinary care centres ?

Kirana stores in rural India are still lagging behind . Some of you can start a rural Kirana store chain

Can some of you go and set up SHG’s in different states in India and empower them to form a national level marketing channel for rural India Opportunities are countless , just go and execute .

Let me tell you that Indian system is very good but manned by wrong people , and so public has lost trust .

Despite all the odds , everywhere in India, I see so much opportunities to work on , and it is a great boon to be born in India . It is how you take it . I believe that each one of you will have a lot to accomplish in life , and am sure that this institution will equip you with the right tools to handle the opportunities that will come your way

I wish you all the best and hope to see you again

Rajendra

Budget , Governance & Political leadership

Budget , Governance & Political leadership

Few important points :
Paridhi : Here is the answer on how budget could have been better: Besides ,there are many other points that i have covered based on queries from other Blog subscribers

1. If the budget was not just a statement of account or an announcement . All the investments should be related to quantifiable outcomes

2. What will 37 % investment in infrastructure lead to ? How many jobs ? How much time will it take ? Were there any other opportunities that can have a better ROD ( Return on decision ?? )

3. If the PSU will get divested , what is the return on Divestment (ROD ). When you divest, you are giving away profits to the investor forever . How much profit will we give away because of divestment ? one is the ROD ( Return on divestment ) or the cost of divestment ( COD ) over the next 10 years & the last is the Return on Opportunity loss ( ROOL ) .

4. Every year 3 % of the population ( 30 million ) go below the poverty line due to healthcare costs . Last year due to recession , at least 3 % more would have gone down below the poverty line + 1.55 % annual population growth rate adds another 15.5 million people to India every year . Where does the budget put in place these numbers and the plan to address the needs of additional 75.5 Million people ? . Can we call the current budget without such considerations & provisions an all-inclusive budget ?

5. Budget should also give an account of the last year’s budget versus achievement and also state how many plans have been shelved and what is the amount that has been unused by the various departments . So that we can ensure the sanctity of the budget and the accountability of the people at the helm of affairs

6. On one side we are talking of revenue / budget deficit , on the other side , we have given a 30 year tax holiday to SEZ ? What is the logic ?

7. Over Rs.6 Lac crore worth of Black money is lying in the banks . Government should promise the people that the money will be brought back to the country in the next few years . This should actually cover the revenue deficit

8. The current budget is provoking budget for Naxalites . Naxalites strives on poverty and poverty thrives on poor governance

9. If the government wants to increase spending for employment generation , it must pass a rule that from 2015, any company bidding for government tenders should have a manufacturing base in India to cater to 50 % of the delivery of products and services
from its Indian company . This will fuel large-scale investments and generate phenomenal employment opportunities .

10. The budget must have allocated money for solar energy in Rajasthan and for villages that still do not have electricity
11. Pentakota in Orissa has one school for 40,000. We need one university and 15 -30 schools in that town. Such things should be considered if we talk about all-inclusive growth .

12. It will take 320 years to clear the judicial back log, Every Indian judge has a load of about 2147 cases. This must be addressed or else i might consider becoming a hard core criminal than writing such emails expecting a change . Simply because my case would beyond 2147 and it will never get settled in my lifetime at least !!
India has the biggest problem with the average age of the political leadership that is a big disadvantage seeing the average age of Indians . The ratio’s are out of sync . Age of political leadership should match the national age group . I am totally against reservation that divides the society and the nation. The best thing would be to provide financial and institutional support to those who need and may be get 50 % of the youth in government ( without any reservation )to lead this nation's political agenda

. RESERVATION PROVES THAT PEOPLE AT THE HELM OF AFFIARS ARE NOT WILLFULLY WANTING TO CHANGE AND NEED LAWS TO ENSURE THAT CHANGE HAPPENS BY FORCE !
WHY RESERVATION FOR WOMEN ? GIVE THEM 50 % TICKETS TO FIGHT ELECTIONS ON YOUR WILL

See the case of 3G spectrum : few questions .

Why are we launching 3G. Can we not move directly to 4G ? Smaller countries like Sri Lanka started 3 G five years ago. Why are we so late ? It could be a better decision to move directly to 4G . Government wants to collect more than Rs.30,000.00 crore. But it has not stated what is the benefit of 3G for the investor over the next 5 years . What is the life cycle (Span )of 3G, when the 4 G comes , what will the players do then ? This could prove to be very costly and killer for some of the telecom players. India is still a voice driven cell phone market .

2. Why India should have 16 circles . Why not one India . USA has single geography for its mobile user

3. I personally believe that 3 G will hit the telecom companies mercilessly . It might lead to losses and mergers & finally consolidation amongst telecom companies in India
In India , i believe that the basic problem is ‘powerful announcements and powerless execution’

Corruption & leakage is leading to a black money economy : Why it is that giving bribe is a crime ? No one gives bribe willingly . It is only a choice-less option when you are pushed against the wall . We need to encourage people to report bribing . But seems that the current law is to protect and patronizing bribe takers. The law must be amended with a clause that giving bribe is not a crime as long as it is reported with the vigilance authorities after the bribe has met its purpose. This will help ensure that the work will get done and the person taking bribe can be brought to the book. We must encourage people to come out and report without the fear of getting caught and that their genuine work does not stop !

China – India : Politicians in India are trying to ape china . The fact is that, a few decades from now China will be a big economy and an old nation. India is not a big economy now but is a young nation today and we will lose our Future demographic advantage (FAD ), if our politicians do not act with right policies now .

We are a victim of a good government , but poor governance .

eHealth & Adoption incentives

Adoption of e-Health



Today i was attending the Joint Round Table on Communication Policy – eHealth in India

I made a few comments and they were accepted by the Round Table, and will be presented to the Hon’ble Union Minister for Health , Dr Dinesh Trivedi & the Planning commission on Monday , 8th March 2010

My view was that if the government tied up with private players like TCS, Infosys , Cognizant ( or anyone ) and worked out a nationwide uniform solution for eHealth for the practising doctors and nurses , it could transform the healthcare system in many ways

The government can bear the cost of the software ( Entire solution- i am not a techie so cannot spell the exact terminology !! ) and give it free to doctors who wish to get on this platform within the next three years . This will help a faster adoption of the EMR or the eHealth platform . After three years , the doctors will be charged for the program on the market cost . Here the disincentive will work as the incentive
The government can negotiate the rate with the hardware vendors for doctors who wish to install the hardware. This way , the doctors will get a better deal
This eHealth can start with 40 metros and finally drive down to smaller towns and finally to every doctors
This will check fake doctors . As only registered / qualified doctors will be given login id / password . The patient can even identify the fake doctors
This will get the government the actual number of doctors working in India in each geography. This will help government map the ‘gap’ areas and post government doctors in those areas or initiate PPP in those select areas on priority
With the doctors details resting on the central database , i can simply SMS to a number and get the details of the nearest doctor to my pin code . Pin code mapping will get government and patient the correct picture of the practitioners in the area
Patient database can be used for patient education and immunization of children in an effective manner . Since patient’s medical and allergy history will be available , the medication errors will minimize to a large extent and the treatment will become more outcome and compliance driven .
Spurious drugs can also be tackled to some extent
Medical history / patient record can be made mobile / universally accessible
This will empower the patient for referral / changing his doctor . The patient might not be required to repeat the same tests if he changes the doctor in a short time , as all the tests might be available online for a similar treatment
My view is doctors are not adopting to EMR – eHealth, as most of the dealings are in cash and there is no record of how many patient the doctor sees per day. With this one uniform system , the government’s tax collection will zoom . Thereby making the entire policy change a zero sum game for the government . The government will make money by selling the software to doctors who come on this system after three years , and also by increased tax collection for recording each patient on the central database .

Worth adopting this !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.org

Address to the students if ISCS, Indira Group as Chief Guest - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Dear Friends,

Good morning, Congratulations and a warm welcome to Indira Group. You have embarked on an important stage of your career.

When I was invited as a Chief Guest, I had another meeting planned at Guwahati today, but I cancelled it and came here. I recollected a discussion with one of the senior most professors of Welingkar institute a few months ago.

I was looking for a good management institute for admission of one of our family friends. So I talked about this to Indira School, D.Y.Patil and Welingkar. While I was chatting with my Professor friend , he told me , Indira Group had won the maximum awards from the industry, and if I could get a seat there , nothing like it ! So friends, let me tell you that you are luckily in the management institute that is highly regarded by the industry

Now that you have a wonderful platform of ISCS, you will have the confidence of having graduated from this well known institute. Now you have to make the best out of this institute by your hard work.

I thought it would be helpful if I shared a few important points with you which will help you , based on my experience & learning right from being a research officer to being the Vice President , COO, CEO , Executive Director & Vice Chairman in different companies and across different sectors

First and foremost, what I must share, is the value of time:
Just think , at 99 degrees water is hot and at 100 degrees water is boiling, 1 degree makes the difference. In 800 m 2004 Olympic games , the margin of victory for a gold medal was .71 seconds . In Formula one racing, in last ten years, the average difference between the first and second position has been 1.54 seconds. The first prize is 1.27 (1278813) Million USD and the second prize is .621 Million (621321 USD). A difference is 657492 USD for just 1.54 Seconds, So friends, never forget that time is the most valuable asset that you have. You cannot afford to delay your decisions when you are studying or working

Time Management : What is the common thing that people like Henry Ford , Albert Einstein and Wright Brothers and all of you - 24 hours of time, and what is the difference ? How they managed their time Also, the most important thing every day is not anything else but how you handle the most important task of the day – Time Management. . I suggest that you pick the most difficult or the most time consuming task first and time management will be quite easy. Time management will help you achieve your goals much easily. If you mess up on time management, you will end up frustrating yourself. These four lines are very relevant for you to remember

He slept beneath the moon
He basked beneath the sun
He lived a life of about going to do, and
Died with having nothing done.

Knowledge Managment :Let me ask you a question: How many of you brush your teeth every day? Almost every one! How many of you brush your knowledge every day? Remember both are equally important. I would strongly recommend that you not just study your course, but also regularly update yourself on the economy & all the sectors of the economy on a regular basis and spend at least two hours a day on updating your knowledge. You must read three newspapers a day

How many of you can buy 50 management books or magazines in a year? How many of you can buy one magazine & book per year. Imagine, if you did so, you have access to 200 books & magazines to read. When you leave this institute, you can donate the same to the institute library with your name and batch on the cover page. Not only that this will enrich your batch but also the subsequent batches who join this institute. They might be thankful to you for your contribution when they read your name on the book. If this continues for the next ten years, this institute will have the best library due to an individual’s effort! On the choice of books, I must advice, you pick a wide range of topics from self management to management and beyond.

Working and networking: Networking is equally important as working. In a world connected by internet and VOIP, networking is boundary-less and free. Please keep enhancing your network and maintaining your old network of friends. It will eventually become a big asset

World Economy: Having talked to you about the values of time , knowledge management & networking , now let me update you a bit on the world economy & the industry: We are hearing on the state of the world economy that we are into a deep recession. I believe that, the world has been put on a reset button. Every recession has shifted the global supremacy of economies. The first recession shifted the power from Britain to U.S.S.R. & U.S.A. if I were right, the current recession will shift the powers to multiple economies like China, India etc. So it is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world and now towards a multi polar world. So ,you will have an important role to ensure that Indian corporate world makes the best use of this God send opportunity and that, can only happen when you are prepared to make the best use of this opportunity . You all have an important role to play

Indian Economy: Two sectors have to be changed if the economy has to grow at 9 or 10 %. These are agriculture and SME sector. About 65 % of the population is engaged in agriculture & 40 % farmers are willing to give up this profession. We will have a serious economic crisis if things don’t change. For agriculture, this also presents two great opportunities – organic farming and food processing. You must consider these opportunities once you pass out from this institute. These two opportunities can add real value to the economy both in terms of domestic revival and foreign trade. SME sector contributed to about 39 % of the economic output in India, but in the developed world SME sector account for more than 90 % of the economic output. In India, SME’s are not that competitive, as we lack good managers in the SME Sector. You can contribute a lot to the SME sector to raise the GDP of the nation and contribute to the economy of this nation

Overall economic environment is very dynamic. As students of management, you must keep a watch on the sectors. SME , Agriculture, Retail, Healthcare, Real estate , Tourism, Education & travel will remain the hot sectors for the next few decades. You must add value to these sectors when you join the corporate world.
Having updated you on all these opportunities , I must also let you know two most important realities.
One, that things never come to you without efforts and you will have to work restlessly to achieve them. Most of the time you will be discouraged and turned away but never mind. Keep chasing your passion. In the end, you are bound to succeed...

Chester Carlson was turned down by all the 20 companies he approached, including GE & IBM. But Chester gave us Xerox.

Jeff Hawkins & Donna Dubinsky invented the palm pilot, they were turned away by the VC’s who believed it was a sure fire way to poor house. In 1995, Jeff and Dona settled for USD 44 Million from U.S. Robotics

Same was with John Grisham; he was turned down by about 80 publishers only to become the best- selling author

Marconi was taken to a psychiatrist when he talked about his invention - Telephone

Let me give you examples of a few Indian’s.
Thyrocare – largest path lab in the country. The owner of this lab slept on CST, Mumbai station from August 18-22 in 1982. He went on to do PhD from BAARC. One day he realised what will happen when he retires from BAARC. He quit and started a one room lab at Byculla with three employees, one who would collect samples; other would do tests in the night and the third who would deliver the reports. All three were Dr.A.Velumani. Today, he runs a 500 cr Business

Suman Jha- He went to Russia to study M.B.B.S. Today at the age of 36, he runs a 700 million USD business that he started when he had 100 USD in his pocket. Shreya entertainment and Shreya Life Sciences are his company

So, may be that most of the time you will be discouraged or turned away. Does not mean that you give up. Remember, a setback can let you down or get you more determined. Choice will be totally yours. Second and most important thing, contended people never bring any changes, they happily adapt to the world. It is the dissatisfied, discontented & the restless people who bring about the change. You all must try to be a change agent. India is a land of billion plus people but we only have about 6 major corporate groups. There is another big question. Can we not create more?

Last question :How many of you think that you will settle down in your life in the next 10, 15 or 20 years? You can never settle down in life at any point in time. If you were ever to do that, It will be after death! Being settled is against the rule of life. Check with any doctor. What does it convey from an ECG when it is a straight line? It means the person is dead. So if the ECG is not a straight line , that is a good news . So friends living and being successful cannot be like a straight line . I was talking to my friend who is from the corporate world and known as the biggest business guru and motivational speaker of his time. He was about to venture in a new field. And I asked him, are you willing to give up your earlier venture for the sake of a new venture. He immediately said; No, I am still to settle down .......................So live with the reality. We are never settled in life, we have to keep working & we are never settled and will never be. As you reach the horizons, the horizons will expand. Keep moving . Always remember that life is a moving target

Please work hard, support the right , don’t compromise on the values & be assertive and the world is yours. Try to make it a little better place

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
So friends, it was real pleasure being with you all this morning & i wish you all the very best

Rajendra

Indian Economy & Michael Jackson's dealth - A lot to learn - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Indian Economy Opti – 'mystic' about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?
Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.
Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?
This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic
Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!
No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .
The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .

Budget did not enthuse - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

July 6, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.

Dear Dr.Joshi,

Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!

As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.

I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.

I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.

Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each

Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!

The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!

Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.

My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!

The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly
Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day

National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person

More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.

Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!

I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!

I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.

Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %

UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %

French Economy will decline by 3 %

Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %

Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %

Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %

Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %

Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.

With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.

This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.

Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?

Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!

Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.

Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.

Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.

The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.

My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year and that too, slowly. I don't expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.

Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.

What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.

Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??


Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.

Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!

How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!


Security of the nation- Diplomacy :

Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.

China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours

Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.

Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.

Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.

Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise

Waiting to hear you in parliament

As always, with best regards

A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com