Maharashtra – Change the name
Over the last two years , Maharashtra has been trying to tell the world that Maharashtra is for Maharashtrian’s and outsiders are unwelcome and unsafe . Raj Thackeray has been sending out his goons to recklessly beat & drive out the poor and weak people who do menial jobs like driving the rickshaws & Taxies , selling fruits & vegetables and working as masons for big builders . Actually, these are the people who run the economy of the state , and their families back home . They did not snatch anyone’s job. Amitabh Bacchhan or Shah Rukh or Mukesh Ambani or Ratan TATA did not make it big in Bombay because they came from outside and snatched someone’s job. They created opportunities for themselves and settled here. Same applies to people from Mahrashtra who are well off and have made good name in all parts of the world !! No one snatches someone’s job .
It is just the simple rule of ‘Survival of the fastest’. Go to UAE , 70 % Of the population is from India and they are well to do . UAE was built by Indians. Locals in UAE respect and acknowledge the fact that UAE was built by Indians !!
Maharashtra was built similarly If you just look at the word MAHA- RASHTRA and its literal meaning .( English translation: MAHA= BIG , RASHTRA- NATION ). Maharashtra actually means a ‘Big Nation’. I wish people to interpret this state rightly and then play whatever politics works for the prosperity of this state and its people. With such parochial politics of Raj Thackeray at play , may be, it is the right time to rename Maharashtra . Maharashtra was built by Christians , Sindhi’s , Marwari’s , Gujarati’s , Keralites , Kannad etc .........were they not involved in building Maharashtra , it would be a different place then what it is today There are better issues to address if one needs to do politics , and hope that our wise residents of this ‘Big Nation- Maharashtra ‘ would not get carried away by cheap and short time tactics of the MNS or its affiliates
Showing posts with label Indian stock markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian stock markets. Show all posts
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Lessons to learn - Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Price rise & Inflation: ‘Elecflation’ –i coined this term for ‘election induced inflation’. This is a recurring phenomenon
I see a lot of hue and cry on the inflation and price rise of vegetables and pulses. While the public is worried, government seems to be doing nothing on it. Why???
Answer: Whenever there are elections, the business houses are forced to contribute to election funding or false cases built up against business houses to make money to fund the party. So how will the business houses recover the money they have spent for the elections? So very naturally, the politicians are also obliged to allow these business houses to hoard and sell at higher prices till they recover in multiples of the money paid for fighting elections. It is a simple election driven price inflation. Remember , same politicians and business houses will meet again for the next elections
I was recently addressing a gathering and i told the people that we don’t have any political parties in India. The people were quite anxious to know what made me conclude this? To which, i explained that what we have today are ‘election parties’ & not ‘Political parties’. Election parties come up with a manifesto during elections and then forget everything for another five years and spring into action again gearing for the next mandate. If we had political parties or politicians then we would have a long term vision for this great nation. Unfortunately, we don’t have politicians. A politician or a political party cannot run a nation of 1.2 billion population without an agenda for 10, 20 & 30 years. Adhocism has not taken this nation anywhere in the last 60+ years
Also, no politician or party can take credit for India’s growing middle class. What we are today is not by design but by default and fault of failed policies and politicians. Fortunately, it puts India in the right spot at the right time. But we should not brag about it but we must have a long term vision and policies and actions to shape the destiny for the nation
Just think, 1/6th of India is under naxalites, 4/6th of India is poor. So whatever you read or see as India opportunity is just representing 1/6th of India. I.e. 200 million Indians are in a position to afford what you have. This blog will only reach may be 40-50 million people. Isn’t that an irony of a nation with 1.2 billion brains? We are exporting brains and then importing technology. We are not a democracy but a pseudo-democracy for just 200 million Indians
There are clearly three segments of Indian population.
People who vote (majority are paid or coerced to vote – these are the people who fall into 800 million people living @less than 2 $ a day)
People who make others to vote (town class or semi urban middle class or Political workers.)
People who are voted – run into a few million as elected or rejected candidates who have the best of all available and are above the law of the land)
It is a time to change ................................The democracy that is India is for 1/6th of the population. Remaining 5/6th is either under the slavery of naxalites or poverty.
On 25th /11 there was a function organised at the Mumbai police Gymkhana. As a trustee of the United Force of India i was asked to share my views on the Mumbai security after 26/11. I only asked one question to the journalists. If after one year of attacks our elected representatives can be manhandled in the Vidhan Sabha and our journalists can be beaten and their office vandalised. Where are we? What security are we speaking about? We are just waiting for another attack to happen and it will!!
Now coming to Dubai crises: For long, i have believed that we are chasing wrong goals as an economy. In fact, on 19th January, i wrote a letter to our Hon’ble P.M. that we should not build our economy on dollars but it should be built on agriculture and SME’s. Free dollar flow is a sign of future pain!! .
See the case of India’s stock markets . The FII’s invest in it raise the index , exit and book profits . Poor Indian retail investors lose when such FII’s exit . But you cannot do anything . The big fish make money . My perception is that , this is happening with the concurrence of the people who are a party to such ‘short money making tactics’. Every politician starts as a humble farmer or a worker and then becomes a ‘uncrowned king’ with schools , charitable institutions , real estate , business ventures unheard and unimagined by people like you and me . We have seen the case of YSR’s son, Reddy brothers , Madhu Koda and the list is end less ............
Take the case of Dubai. Now people have started calling it ‘Doob Gayee’ . Dubai built their economy on dollars and we know their fate. If India does not focus on Agriculture and SME’s. We will cry with pain. I recently read Dr. Manmohan Singh statements that with strong FDI inflows, our economy is slated to grow 9 %. I sometimes, don’t understand why are we still dependent on the foreign money? This FII / FDI are like a refined and sophisticated terms for EIC – East India Company. They will take profits abroad. These instruments have only one goal – Feast on the growing middle class. Do we allow them? The day we make our ’Farmers , the father of the nation , the nation will turn into a vibrant economy’. I wish Dr.Singh to say some day that our farmers contribute to the growing GDP and SME contribute to a majority of dollar inflow .
Lastly, i must quote our Environment Minister, Mr. Jairam Ramesh - ‘If there was a noble prize for filth, India would get it hands down as there would be no competitors’. I expected our M.P. friends to seek his resignation for officially calling India a land of filth. He is a union minister and he should have abstained from making such a degrading comment on this great nation. Anything he says impacts India’s image negatively. What will people think about India when they read about this ‘noble prize’ eligibility for India? Do we expect more tourism with such statements or do we get more sanitation funds from WB / WHO etc with such irresponsible comments? Is the entire nation full of filth? Mr. Minister, please apologise for your senile statements and resign . You are getting your perks from this nation of filth .
Does it not prick your conscience to bring about a change in the nation than to complain??
Each one of you can bring about a small change in the scheme of things . Think small , aim big and act fast .
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country FirstEmail: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
I see a lot of hue and cry on the inflation and price rise of vegetables and pulses. While the public is worried, government seems to be doing nothing on it. Why???
Answer: Whenever there are elections, the business houses are forced to contribute to election funding or false cases built up against business houses to make money to fund the party. So how will the business houses recover the money they have spent for the elections? So very naturally, the politicians are also obliged to allow these business houses to hoard and sell at higher prices till they recover in multiples of the money paid for fighting elections. It is a simple election driven price inflation. Remember , same politicians and business houses will meet again for the next elections
I was recently addressing a gathering and i told the people that we don’t have any political parties in India. The people were quite anxious to know what made me conclude this? To which, i explained that what we have today are ‘election parties’ & not ‘Political parties’. Election parties come up with a manifesto during elections and then forget everything for another five years and spring into action again gearing for the next mandate. If we had political parties or politicians then we would have a long term vision for this great nation. Unfortunately, we don’t have politicians. A politician or a political party cannot run a nation of 1.2 billion population without an agenda for 10, 20 & 30 years. Adhocism has not taken this nation anywhere in the last 60+ years
Also, no politician or party can take credit for India’s growing middle class. What we are today is not by design but by default and fault of failed policies and politicians. Fortunately, it puts India in the right spot at the right time. But we should not brag about it but we must have a long term vision and policies and actions to shape the destiny for the nation
Just think, 1/6th of India is under naxalites, 4/6th of India is poor. So whatever you read or see as India opportunity is just representing 1/6th of India. I.e. 200 million Indians are in a position to afford what you have. This blog will only reach may be 40-50 million people. Isn’t that an irony of a nation with 1.2 billion brains? We are exporting brains and then importing technology. We are not a democracy but a pseudo-democracy for just 200 million Indians
There are clearly three segments of Indian population.
People who vote (majority are paid or coerced to vote – these are the people who fall into 800 million people living @less than 2 $ a day)
People who make others to vote (town class or semi urban middle class or Political workers.)
People who are voted – run into a few million as elected or rejected candidates who have the best of all available and are above the law of the land)
It is a time to change ................................The democracy that is India is for 1/6th of the population. Remaining 5/6th is either under the slavery of naxalites or poverty.
On 25th /11 there was a function organised at the Mumbai police Gymkhana. As a trustee of the United Force of India i was asked to share my views on the Mumbai security after 26/11. I only asked one question to the journalists. If after one year of attacks our elected representatives can be manhandled in the Vidhan Sabha and our journalists can be beaten and their office vandalised. Where are we? What security are we speaking about? We are just waiting for another attack to happen and it will!!
Now coming to Dubai crises: For long, i have believed that we are chasing wrong goals as an economy. In fact, on 19th January, i wrote a letter to our Hon’ble P.M. that we should not build our economy on dollars but it should be built on agriculture and SME’s. Free dollar flow is a sign of future pain!! .
See the case of India’s stock markets . The FII’s invest in it raise the index , exit and book profits . Poor Indian retail investors lose when such FII’s exit . But you cannot do anything . The big fish make money . My perception is that , this is happening with the concurrence of the people who are a party to such ‘short money making tactics’. Every politician starts as a humble farmer or a worker and then becomes a ‘uncrowned king’ with schools , charitable institutions , real estate , business ventures unheard and unimagined by people like you and me . We have seen the case of YSR’s son, Reddy brothers , Madhu Koda and the list is end less ............
Take the case of Dubai. Now people have started calling it ‘Doob Gayee’ . Dubai built their economy on dollars and we know their fate. If India does not focus on Agriculture and SME’s. We will cry with pain. I recently read Dr. Manmohan Singh statements that with strong FDI inflows, our economy is slated to grow 9 %. I sometimes, don’t understand why are we still dependent on the foreign money? This FII / FDI are like a refined and sophisticated terms for EIC – East India Company. They will take profits abroad. These instruments have only one goal – Feast on the growing middle class. Do we allow them? The day we make our ’Farmers , the father of the nation , the nation will turn into a vibrant economy’. I wish Dr.Singh to say some day that our farmers contribute to the growing GDP and SME contribute to a majority of dollar inflow .
Lastly, i must quote our Environment Minister, Mr. Jairam Ramesh - ‘If there was a noble prize for filth, India would get it hands down as there would be no competitors’. I expected our M.P. friends to seek his resignation for officially calling India a land of filth. He is a union minister and he should have abstained from making such a degrading comment on this great nation. Anything he says impacts India’s image negatively. What will people think about India when they read about this ‘noble prize’ eligibility for India? Do we expect more tourism with such statements or do we get more sanitation funds from WB / WHO etc with such irresponsible comments? Is the entire nation full of filth? Mr. Minister, please apologise for your senile statements and resign . You are getting your perks from this nation of filth .
Does it not prick your conscience to bring about a change in the nation than to complain??
Each one of you can bring about a small change in the scheme of things . Think small , aim big and act fast .
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country FirstEmail: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Indian Economy & Michael Jackson's dealth - A lot to learn - Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Indian Economy Opti – 'mystic' about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?
Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.
Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?
This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic
Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!
No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .
The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .
Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?
Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.
Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?
This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic
Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!
No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .
The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .
Monday, July 6, 2009
Budget did not enthuse - Rajendra Pratap Gupta
July 6, 2009
Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.
Dear Dr.Joshi,
Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!
As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.
I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.
I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.
Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each
Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!
The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!
Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.
My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!
The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly
Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day
National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person
More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.
Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!
I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!
I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.
Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %
UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %
French Economy will decline by 3 %
Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %
Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %
Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %
Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %
Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.
With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.
This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.
Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?
Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!
Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.
Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.
Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.
The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.
My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year and that too, slowly. I don't expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.
Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.
What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.
Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??
Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.
Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!
How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!
Security of the nation- Diplomacy :
Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.
China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours
Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.
Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.
Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.
Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise
Waiting to hear you in parliament
As always, with best regards
A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.
Dear Dr.Joshi,
Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!
As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.
I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.
I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.
Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each
Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!
The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!
Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.
My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!
The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly
Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day
National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person
More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.
Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!
I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!
I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.
Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %
UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %
French Economy will decline by 3 %
Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %
Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %
Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %
Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %
Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.
With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.
This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.
Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?
Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!
Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.
Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.
Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.
The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.
My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year and that too, slowly. I don't expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.
Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.
What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.
Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??
Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.
Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!
How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!
Security of the nation- Diplomacy :
Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.
China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours
Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.
Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.
Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.
Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise
Waiting to hear you in parliament
As always, with best regards
A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Third World War is on - Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Actual GDP growth around 4 % ?- Rajendra Pratap Gupta
According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.
Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.
The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.
Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %
Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .
Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008
With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA's in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA's via defaults .
Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories
If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.
We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ...........
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
E-mail : rajendra.india@gmail.com
According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.
Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.
The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.
Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %
Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .
Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008
With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA's in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA's via defaults .
Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories
If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.
We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ...........
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
E-mail : rajendra.india@gmail.com
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
What next ? Rajendra Pratap Gupta
50 years of Congress Misrule : Decline of India as a super power - Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Congress has ruled this nation for more than fifty years. Let’s examine what it did to this nation ?
In the last fifty years , the congress leaders have contributed immensely to deteriorating the economy and suppressing the rights of the common man by denying him the right education and running the economy on the ‘Self serving’ license raj. It was only in the 1990’s that the congress policies led India towards Bankruptcy, and under the instructions of the World Bank , Congress had to liberalise the economy. We should not forget that as a single party running the nation for more than 50 years, it did not let the common man to get proper education , as ‘The Common Man’ would have protested for change, and this, the shrewd leaders in congress never wanted . BJP was the first government that started the “Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan” to bring about the change ! Population under the congress misrule has just remained a mere statistics and a vote bank to be used during elections and abused thereafter. Let us also not forget that , congress due to its ‘Single family rule’ got divided into many parts and no one knows which is the original congress and still they talk of unity ? There is a Congress (i) , Congress Nationalist Party etc . Congress has followed only one game in the name of government , prepare the nation to take on the next Gandhi inheritor no matter what . Respect for talent and merit has never been a norm in the congress party . The party that cannot practice democracy at home , how can it practice Democracy in the party, leave alone democracy in the nation. Respect for democracy and talent in congress is a cruel joke . Congress is nothing but the rule of Gandhi family .
Below is an ‘Eye Opener’ on what Congress’s contributed to this nation :
A Failed Judiciary :
On Feb 6, 2009, the Supreme court said that , the Criminal justice system has collapsed – Making the chilling observation, which to many only confirmed the widely held perception of the erosion of the system, a Bench comprising Justices B N Agrawal, G S Singhvi and Aftab Alam also said that the lower judiciary had decayed. "The courts of magistrate and munsif have ceased to be an option for the common man," the Bench said and compared the lower courts to ill-equipped and ill-staffed public health centres (PHCs) in rural areas.
Only those people go there who have no other option," said the Bench as an apparent indicator of the low measure of public faith in these courts, which are the first points of dispute settlement for the masses.
While the last Election manifesto of congress in 2004 quoted ‘ Immediate measures will be taken to drastically cut the delays in courts, particularly in the high courts and in lower levels of the judiciary’.
Central Bureau of Investigations : “Only God can save the situation”.
On Tuesday 11th Feb , 2009, the Supreme Court said the CBI was acting at the behest of the law ministry while investigating the disproportionate assets case against SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. An exasperated Bench said, “Only God can save the situation”.
“You are acting at the behest of the law ministry. You are not acting on your own,” said the bench comprising Justice Altamas Kabir and Justice Cyriac Joseph ‘
Ironically, the last election manifesto of congress quoted ‘ An administrative reforms commission will be established to prepare a detailed blueprint for revamping the public administration system completely so as to make it more performance oriented and accountable’.
Divided Election Commission : Fading hopes !!
The Chief Election Commissioner's recommendation for removal of Election Commissioner , Navin Chawla ahead of the general elections brings to the fore the differences among the three-member body which has often been marred by clashes over crucial decisions. This is the second pillar after the Judiciary that safe guards the democracy . Under the current Congress rule ,The Election commissions decisions cannot be trusted anymore . Apparently , looks like, that the system has lost its credibility . Whereas , the Election Manifesto of Congress quoted ‘ Congress is deeply committed to electoral reforms’.
Congress is not in favour of Aam Aadmi ??? Poor accountability on spending :
The CAG( Comptroller and auditor general ) report released on 20th February 2009 said that the centre’s Aam Aaadmi Bill was highly inflated. According to CAG, the funds meant for social and infrastructure development were diverted to celebrations and giving aid to NGO’s and other expenditure rather than creating infrastructure .
Remember Rajiv Gandhi saying , out of every rupee meant for the poor only fifteen paisa reaches the common man. This is what the leader of party said , whose family ruled this nation as its fiefdom since the very independence !
Congress has failed to act against terrorism – We are living at the mercy of the terrorists.
The less we talk the better. This government has failed utterly against terror . We had all kinds of attacks at all the places – Air , Land & Sea. It is not just Kashmir , it is all across . We are totally at the mercy of the terrorists . Congress has let the nation down badly.
Financially , our economy is at its worst :
The fiscal deficit for 2009 would be in around 11 % . The Fiscal deficit budgeted at 2.5 % of the GDP this year , will end up at 6 % , to which should be added another 1.5 % of the GDP for the off-budget items like dues on oil and fertilizers companies . Throw in another 3.5 % of GDP of state government deficits , and India will have a consolidated fiscal deficit of 11 % in 2008-9. Remember, during the BJP led NDA , Revenue deficit never crossed 4.5 %. Congress took over from BJP, an Indian Economy growing at 8 % every year and after five years. We are just a step away from being rated as a ‘Junk status’ under the congress policies and misrule.
Congress regime has seem unchecked inflation . Even we are not sure whether the low inflation numbers we see today are correct or cooked up . Economy is sliding day by day. Companies are getting into voluntary shut downs, expected job losses till March 09 are expected to cross one crore. Last Election manifesto of Congress reiterated “its firm commitment to eliminating the revenue deficit of the central government in five years time” & actually gave India the worst ever revenue deficit since its independence . According to S&P’s ( Standard & Poor’s ratings ) , India’s fiscal position is unsustainable in the middle term, reduced the outlook on long term debt from stable to negative for four government entities , and , in turn, the UPA government . In the 3rd Week of Feb’ 09, even Fitch ratings had called India’s finances in to question.
Urban Poverty :
According to the 'India: Urban Poverty Report, 2009',The poverty in cities is not an overflow of the poverty in villages but has happened because of the faulty nature of urbanisation in India, says the country's first report on Urban Poverty released today. According to the study, an estimated 23.7 per cent of the urban population was living in slums amid squalor, crime, disease and tension, but not all slum dwellers exist below the poverty line.
They have been marginalised because of the poor city planning and poorer urban land management and legislation.
The urban poverty was not about only nutritional deficiency but deficiencies in the basic needs of housing, water, sanitation, medical care, education, and opportunity for income generation. As many 81 million or 25.7 per cent people(2004-05) subsist in urban areas on incomes that are below the poverty line. Eighty per cent of their meagre income goes towards paying for food and energy, leaving very little for meeting the cost of living in an increasingly monetised society
Congress Election Manifesto of 2004 quoted ‘ The Congress is conscious of the havoc that corruption at all levels adds to the harassment of the common man’.
In fact, fifty years of Congress misrule is a naked , sordid & ruthless saga of Gareebi , Bhrashtachaar and Aantakwaad and not the Roti , Kapda aur Makaan that has just remained a slogan after 50 years of rule. Congress is all words and no substance !
Overall , Congress led UPA is a failure on all fronts. Giving it even five hours is against the interest of the nation and the common man . All including , wise men in Congress will agree to this along with the fact that, Congress only talks of sacrifices by the Gandhi family and does not even acknowledge that others have also contributed to this nation. Is it that except the Gandhi family, no one has sacrificed in Congress ? The last manifesto of congress read ‘ It is the congress leaders like Gandhi ji, Indiraji and Rajive ji who have sacrificed their lives in the services of the country’ .
Fifty years of misrule has certainly achieved one thing; ethics has been eroded in politics and no one trusts a politician. BJP is committed to change this by you participating actively in bringing about this change and creating an India for the common man
Decline of India as a Global power :
Source : Angus Maddison, The World Economy, Paris , OECD, 2001, P.261, Table B-18
The Changing share of world GDP 1600-1870 ( In million 1990 International $ )
| Geography | 1600 A.D. | % of total | 1700 A.D. | % of total | 1870 A.D. | % of total |
| Britain | 6007 | 1.80 | 10709 | 2.88 | 100179 | 9.10 |
| Western Europe | 65955 | 20.02 | 83395 | 22.46 | 370223 | 33.61 |
| China | 96000 | 29.14 | 82800 | 22.30 | 189740 | 17.23 |
| India | 74250 | 22.54 | 90750 | 24.44 | 134882 | 12.25 |
| World | 329417 | | 371369 | | 1101369 | |
This chart proves that India was a world leader in trade after China with 22.54 % of the world GDP. East India company changed the global equations and reduced it to 12.25 % . Congress did the rest . Today , we are less than 2 % .
What next ? It depends on what you and I will do next ?
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: President@countryfirst.org
Thursday, January 29, 2009
If you will . It will
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
The satyam saga is not as simple as people believe . My personal view is, that it happened due to the political comfort Raju enjoyed with all the powers that are at play. More specifically , all the A.P. Governments be it of CBN or YSR..
I am sure that, this dirty trail will pull out many political skeletons. And if this is bound to happen, Raju’s life might be in danger . No A.P. politician would like to be named when elections are just a few weeks away. I fear that Raju might be eliminated in the name of a heart attack
The center must interrogate , investigate and keep the custody of Raju out of Andhra . But as we know, that our courageous politicians , corrupt agencies working under political influence and control, inefficient judiciary and biased press will not let the truth be out for the common man. That is what is called the CMP – Common Minimum Programme !!
Government has given mobilizing advance to Maytas infra. What steps have been taken to build safeguards for the two thousand Crores given as mobilising advance ? It is well understood that government has a cut in every such deal. Rajiv Gandhi once said that, out of every rupee meant for poor , 15 paisa reaches the poor. In ( political – business ) deals , poor are our politicians and they demand much more than 15 paisa out of every rupee in the name of the party and themselves – They have no shame – Remember Bangaru Laxman ?. How come suddenly a news paper cartoonist like Bal Thackeray and his entire clan run deals worth hundreds of Crores !! A poor man when becomes a saviour of the poor ( read politician ) suddenly becomes rich ?? I recall a quote- A Politician is one, who extracts votes and money from the rich and poor on the pretext of protecting each from the other !!
A few days back, I was talking to one of my friends who has access to the powers at the center. I was shocked to learn , that planning commission does not issue money to the states till there is a guarantee for the portion of the money being returned for fighting elections. If the grapevine is to be believed , this amount per state runs into thousand crore plus !!! That’s why when you complain about corruption , no one listens, as all the powers are deeply involved into it either at the front end or at the backend . Corruption is the politician’s only religion . Corruption is a trickling down process and is like rain water . It comes from the top and not the other way round !
While a lot of people are looking at bringing about a change in the governance of the nation . But trust me , it will not happen soon. Reason is, that there are only less than 5 percent of people who read and get frustrated about the current state of affairs ; unfortunately, they don’t even vote . So frustration alone will not change this system.. Rest 95 percent are victims and partners by force to such an ‘illegal democratic System’. The corruption is “institutionalised business” to such an extent that you and i cannot imagine as honest individuals . A Member of parliament. has to pay for becoming an M.P. then he has to collect the same money ( with returns ) from business houses, IAS & IPS officers in the name of getting things done !! A low level clerk or the hawaldaar / constable has to be pay for his posting and lucrative transfer . At the end , i and you have to pay for all this as bribe. This is my definition of the current democracy – a totally manipulated system by the politicians , for the influential at the cost of the common man.
Those of us who think that we can change it by mere lighting a candle or filing an PIL. Just go and check how many election commissioners , retired judges that have given favourable judgements are in plum postings post retirement ? why did Chief Election Commissioner T.N.Sesan not become a Union minister and Mr.Gill become a union minister ? Why do IPS officers , Judges become governors of states after retirement ? Many such cases exists. Just peep into the past. You might have all answers. Why does the CBI need a permission from the government for prosecuting the officers or M.P.’s ? Simply to delay and bid time . Anyways, an average Indian is so lost in daily chores that he/she doesn’t have time to get ‘involved’ in ‘such issues’ . Votes that the ‘intellectuals’ like us give does not exceed 3 % .Mostly, we don’t even go to vote. Majority of the people who vote for these corrupt politicians decide not on the basis of good governance, but whether his wives get a saree and the family gets a sumptuous meal a few days till the voting day. These are the 600 million innocent and exploited people who for almost next five years after elections will go to bed empty stomach every day. They cannot practice our principles ! And the politicians don’t wish them to prosper . If these 600 million people prosper and come out of poverty, corrupt people like Lalu Yadav, Shibo Soren, Mulayam Singh , Amar Singh, Sharad Pawar and many more would not be rubbing shoulders with Sonia or Manmohan or dreaming to be union ministers !! We all know why Ashwariya got the Padmshri award ? Simply because Amar and his gang have bailed out the congress ? Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi talk about democracy in the nation . If Rahul was not Gandhi would he become the Gen.Secy of the congress so soon ? When the party itself is against democracy and decides the top posts based on sycophancy , favouritism and dictatorship how can it guarantee democracy to the nation ? Why are we getting fooled. I would go to an extent of writing that Manmohan would have been forced for the cardiac surgery . So that if by chance , Congress comes to power. On health grounds , Manmohan can be retired and Rahul can step in to lead the nation to disaster ! Anyways, the Gandhi dynasty has ruled the nation for 90 % of the time since Independence . Earlier , they can be credited with ‘license raj’ and now ‘quota raj’ . Both the steps led them to manipulate and come to power but weakened he nation and divided it . We have gone backward than becoming developed . Elections have never been fought for good governance . It has been fought to stay in power. The priorities are misplaced totally. Last five years into power they had all to develop an indigenous growth model for India . But they went on to build a dollar based economy and gave us recession to live with . What a colossal failure for Sonia , Manmohan and PC !!
Don’t expect the system to change soon . A new cult has to come up from the youth , specially women who will have to lead another mass movement to make it happen. And it cannot happen if you read this and still decide to sit back and go into thinking mode.
We must get up to action .
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Email: mail@rajendragupta.org
rajendra.india@gmail.com
The satyam saga is not as simple as people believe . My personal view is, that it happened due to the political comfort Raju enjoyed with all the powers that are at play. More specifically , all the A.P. Governments be it of CBN or YSR..
I am sure that, this dirty trail will pull out many political skeletons. And if this is bound to happen, Raju’s life might be in danger . No A.P. politician would like to be named when elections are just a few weeks away. I fear that Raju might be eliminated in the name of a heart attack
The center must interrogate , investigate and keep the custody of Raju out of Andhra . But as we know, that our courageous politicians , corrupt agencies working under political influence and control, inefficient judiciary and biased press will not let the truth be out for the common man. That is what is called the CMP – Common Minimum Programme !!
Government has given mobilizing advance to Maytas infra. What steps have been taken to build safeguards for the two thousand Crores given as mobilising advance ? It is well understood that government has a cut in every such deal. Rajiv Gandhi once said that, out of every rupee meant for poor , 15 paisa reaches the poor. In ( political – business ) deals , poor are our politicians and they demand much more than 15 paisa out of every rupee in the name of the party and themselves – They have no shame – Remember Bangaru Laxman ?. How come suddenly a news paper cartoonist like Bal Thackeray and his entire clan run deals worth hundreds of Crores !! A poor man when becomes a saviour of the poor ( read politician ) suddenly becomes rich ?? I recall a quote- A Politician is one, who extracts votes and money from the rich and poor on the pretext of protecting each from the other !!
A few days back, I was talking to one of my friends who has access to the powers at the center. I was shocked to learn , that planning commission does not issue money to the states till there is a guarantee for the portion of the money being returned for fighting elections. If the grapevine is to be believed , this amount per state runs into thousand crore plus !!! That’s why when you complain about corruption , no one listens, as all the powers are deeply involved into it either at the front end or at the backend . Corruption is the politician’s only religion . Corruption is a trickling down process and is like rain water . It comes from the top and not the other way round !
While a lot of people are looking at bringing about a change in the governance of the nation . But trust me , it will not happen soon. Reason is, that there are only less than 5 percent of people who read and get frustrated about the current state of affairs ; unfortunately, they don’t even vote . So frustration alone will not change this system.. Rest 95 percent are victims and partners by force to such an ‘illegal democratic System’. The corruption is “institutionalised business” to such an extent that you and i cannot imagine as honest individuals . A Member of parliament. has to pay for becoming an M.P. then he has to collect the same money ( with returns ) from business houses, IAS & IPS officers in the name of getting things done !! A low level clerk or the hawaldaar / constable has to be pay for his posting and lucrative transfer . At the end , i and you have to pay for all this as bribe. This is my definition of the current democracy – a totally manipulated system by the politicians , for the influential at the cost of the common man.
Those of us who think that we can change it by mere lighting a candle or filing an PIL. Just go and check how many election commissioners , retired judges that have given favourable judgements are in plum postings post retirement ? why did Chief Election Commissioner T.N.Sesan not become a Union minister and Mr.Gill become a union minister ? Why do IPS officers , Judges become governors of states after retirement ? Many such cases exists. Just peep into the past. You might have all answers. Why does the CBI need a permission from the government for prosecuting the officers or M.P.’s ? Simply to delay and bid time . Anyways, an average Indian is so lost in daily chores that he/she doesn’t have time to get ‘involved’ in ‘such issues’ . Votes that the ‘intellectuals’ like us give does not exceed 3 % .Mostly, we don’t even go to vote. Majority of the people who vote for these corrupt politicians decide not on the basis of good governance, but whether his wives get a saree and the family gets a sumptuous meal a few days till the voting day. These are the 600 million innocent and exploited people who for almost next five years after elections will go to bed empty stomach every day. They cannot practice our principles ! And the politicians don’t wish them to prosper . If these 600 million people prosper and come out of poverty, corrupt people like Lalu Yadav, Shibo Soren, Mulayam Singh , Amar Singh, Sharad Pawar and many more would not be rubbing shoulders with Sonia or Manmohan or dreaming to be union ministers !! We all know why Ashwariya got the Padmshri award ? Simply because Amar and his gang have bailed out the congress ? Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi talk about democracy in the nation . If Rahul was not Gandhi would he become the Gen.Secy of the congress so soon ? When the party itself is against democracy and decides the top posts based on sycophancy , favouritism and dictatorship how can it guarantee democracy to the nation ? Why are we getting fooled. I would go to an extent of writing that Manmohan would have been forced for the cardiac surgery . So that if by chance , Congress comes to power. On health grounds , Manmohan can be retired and Rahul can step in to lead the nation to disaster ! Anyways, the Gandhi dynasty has ruled the nation for 90 % of the time since Independence . Earlier , they can be credited with ‘license raj’ and now ‘quota raj’ . Both the steps led them to manipulate and come to power but weakened he nation and divided it . We have gone backward than becoming developed . Elections have never been fought for good governance . It has been fought to stay in power. The priorities are misplaced totally. Last five years into power they had all to develop an indigenous growth model for India . But they went on to build a dollar based economy and gave us recession to live with . What a colossal failure for Sonia , Manmohan and PC !!
Don’t expect the system to change soon . A new cult has to come up from the youth , specially women who will have to lead another mass movement to make it happen. And it cannot happen if you read this and still decide to sit back and go into thinking mode.
We must get up to action .
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Email: mail@rajendragupta.org
rajendra.india@gmail.com
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Global Recession- An opportunity for India to course correct
January 16th, 2009
Dr. Manmohan Singh
Prime Minister &
Minister for Finance
Government of India
New Delhi
Subject: Economic policies and the current turmoil- Recommendations
Dear Dr.Singh,
I am writing this letter to draw your attention to the issues affecting the nation and some practical solutions
On the outset, I wish to place it on record that I am neither a world renowned Economist nor a Nobel Laureate but have spend 12 successful years at the helm of many corporate companies more so because of my approach rather than some other qualification. As an ever lasting student of the corporate world, my focus has been on constant innovations and prioritizations in order to simplify complex situations and search for practical, achievable and sustainable solutions. The spirit and essence of this communiqué flow from these thoughts.
and trust me, if you follow my advice, we can certainly come out of the recession faster and emerge stronger. There are lessons to be learned to make India stronger
Let me clear you that India is in a recession and that we are headed for a severe recession if we don’t take immediate steps. I wish to quote you the following data to enlighten you about the same.
• Exports :According to the President ,Federation of Indian Export Organizations ( FIEO), Mr.A.Sakthvel, 2009 is going to be the worst year in history and the Indian Exporters may cut 10 million jobs by March as the orders are drying up
• Slow down in the leather industry is likely to axe 5 lakh workers in leather units in the next three to four months with worsening market scenario in US and Europe . The industry employs almost 2.5 million people. Ref: The Economic Times dated Jan 2009.
• Tax Collections :The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( Ref: The Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )
• Corporate - Domestic slowdown Net profit of India Inc. likely to decline by almost 46 % in the 3rd Quarter of third fiscal .Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 08.
• The private sector abandoned projects worth 44 billion in the third quarter of 2008
• Insurance Sector April to Nov 08 , the insurer’s first premium income and number of policies sold were down by 14 % - Ref : The Economic Times dated 3rd Jan 2009
• Banking SectorFor a leading private bank , between Nov and Dec 08 the credit card delinquency increased to 26 %
• The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.
• Aviation Sector Jet airways and Jet lite have defaulted in payments of Rs. 32.78 Cr to AAI TOI 29th Dec 08. Airline industry is expected be in deep red this year
• Hospitality Sector The hotel occupancy has dropped by 50 %. Ref : The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Diamond Sector 60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs. (Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council (GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry. Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Auto & transport Sector Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India is via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva, President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and Dec alone, close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. Ref The Mint – Wall street Journal dated Dec 26th 2008
• IT sector is likely to lay off 50,000 people in the next 6 months. Already layoffs are happening across sectors
Let’s look back as to why we have had a problem ? We built an economy on dollars, FDI and stock market and not on 600 million people who live on 2.5 USD a day. We have tried to compete with China or serve the developed world. The outsourcing business is not build on merits other than low costs of human capital. We don’t have a lasting story if we bank on cheap labour only!! We need to capitalize on our resources internally and not become a body shopping country. But till now, we have let others capitalize on our strengths. You will have to change this. Common minimum programme has to be Common man’s programme
India has always been a land of ‘Rishi’ and ‘Krishi’. We forgot this aspect of India. We still have not done much for the farmers of this nation. We know for sure that 18 % of the GDP (agriculture) supports 60 % of the population. Kamal Nath believes that this might not be possible. I must correct him. What we need is value addition to agriculture and connecting the value chain of agriculture business to farmers at the place of produce. We need to think more about farmers producing cash crops besides staple crop. We need to increase the value of 18 %. We must note that 80 % farms in India are smaller than 5 acres. From 1971-96, the average size of the farms has reduced from 2.3 to 1.4 acres. Whilst, in the developing countries the average farm size has decreased, same has increased in developed world.
Having given the above mentioned data let me inform you that in abnormally tough times you cannot take routine decisions. Baby steps would not help. Severe crisis needs several big interventions. You need to take drastic steps. Some of which i am putting for your immediate consideration
Just lowering the interest rate or some small duty cuts would not raise the morale of the countrymen. This is a crisis of comfort and confidence both. You are testing waters by lowering the rates in monthly reviews and at intervals. Not realising that that these SOPS in instalments are deteriorating the economy and the morale of the people is suffering as time is passing. We are drifting in the ‘quick sand of recession’. Please consider, people do not buy because a particular product or service is cheap. But the buying decision is dependent on certainty of income and availability of cheap capital coupled with host of other social and market factors. Seeing what is happening in the country, i don’t see a positive mood till you take drastic steps like,
1. Replace the portfolio of Minister of Finance with the Minister for economic development
2. Have a dedicated secretariat to monitor the economic indicators and look to prevent surprises and signal disasters much in advance- in short to do a overall risk assessment across sectors in the economy. They should have no other job than to forecast and warn against the impending threats to the economic growth
3. Have a dedicated minister for modern agriculture practices
4. Dedicate a separate ministries for each innovation ,poverty alleviation and PPP- Public Private partnerships . PPP must be encouraged in all sectors
5. Economic policies should be more inward looking than foreign dependent
6. Tax rates must be reduced for individuals in one go and in a massive manner and not in instalments
7. Fuel rates should be reduced immediately and be made market driven
8. We need to focus and take immediate steps for setting up Agri and processed foods SEZ on an urgent basis.
9. Announce incentives for organic farming.
10. Announce incentives for tourism
11. Government must give big push to vocational training and employment for students
12. Increase recruitment for teachers , police and other government staff
13. Scholarships for education and R&D must be given
14. Lower the bank interest rates for corporate lending to around 9 % at one go.
15. Home loan rates be immediately reduced to 7.5 % for amount up to Rs. 5 lac, 8 % above 5 Lac till 20 Lac, 8.5 % for amount above Rs. 20 lac till Rs.50 Lac and 9 % for amounts above Rs. 50 Lac. The customers must be allowed to get these at fixed rates and not floating rates for a period of 20 years. Construction boom will increase activity in a lot of infrastructure industries like construction workers, cement, iron and steel and paints etc. which will add to the economy in a big way. All these must be lowered in one go rather in instalments
16. While you give incentives to the infrastructure , you must appoint a housing regulator to bring in confidence of a fair play amongst the investors
17. Government must build houses for weakest sections of the society to be leased on rentals and not be sold
18. Banks must be mandated for giving loans to students for vocational courses without any guarantor .This will lead to enhancement of skills and employment and the loan amounts will be small. Plus the bank will secure the loans as the students cannot get the job without clearance from banks !! So safer loans. People can earn and pay along
19. IT sector must focus on agriculture sector & education– This one step will take India to a better placed economy
20. Big corporates must be mandated to outsource 2.5 % of their requirement to SSI (Small scale industries).
21. Encourage Small scale industries and incentivise them by making them tax free for 3 years
22. SSI based SEZ must be considered for every state
23. Agriculture and food processing SEZ must be established near ports and in every state
24. Don’t transform Mumbai to Shanghai. Create more Mumbai’s in India. Have realistic goals
25. Remove bureaucratic hurdles to set up small businesses like removing multiple approvals. Let it be a single window clearance for setting up a shop or small business
We must be focussed on servicing our population and not be dependent on globalization. We have learned now that building an economy based on just FDI will not be a stable economy. We need to learn a lesson from the BJP’s Swadeshi strategy. Albeit in a different manner. Let the financing be local and focus on intrinsic industries. Agriculture, and SSI is good enough to give stable growth to the economy
Unchecked capitalism has failed in USA . Now America is fast moving towards being a socialistic economy – American government is funding and buying into big defaulting and bankrupt corporations thus socialising the economy. It is clear that you can’t build a great economy on capitalist lines. I have my serious doubts on Barack being able to revive US capitalist economy. In India, we have only four five major corporates in a land of a billion people. This indicates that the policies of the government have favoured or controlled by a privileged few !! This needs to be changed immediately. Encourage entrepreneurship and SSI in an institutionalised manner and support them.
Give a push to communication, Infrastructure, healthcare, education and PPP to grow India to the next level. Have a robust pension system and a culture of long term investments and savings. This is critical to avoiding America like defaults and disaster
I must also take you through the US failure and where it might head for. The failure of America is due to lack of culture of savings and greedy & unnatural growth strategies. It is the start of the historical shift of power equation. Historically, Greek & Roman empires dominated the world. Then came the turn of Britain that controlled the world , It shifted the power equation to USSR & USA. Now it is the USA. Future undoubtedly is of China. If you care to correct the situation with drastic measures, India will be back in to glory by the year 2020 as the world’s top most power.
We have faltered due to our myopic policies. You have the opportunity to change this nation’s future by taking appropriate measures or get caught in the web of political compulsions or electoral policies. Needless to mention, peace is a precondition to progress.
See the date of different states, this tells us a lot. I have arranged in ascending order w.r.t. population
S. No State Population Per capita net state domestic product in INR No. of M.P.’s
Lok Sabha No. of M.P’s Rajya Sabha No. of Assembly seats
1 Lakshadweep 60650 N.A. 1
2 Daman & Diu 1.58 Lac NA 1
3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 2.2 Lac N.A. 1
4 Andaman & Nicobar 3.56 Lac 28340 ( 2002-3) 1
5 Sikkim 5.4 Lac 21586 (2003-4) 1 1 32
6 Mizoram 8.88 Lac 22207 (2002-3) 1 1 40
7 Chandigarh 9 Lac 57621 (2003-4) 1
8 Poducherry 9.74 Lac 50936 (2003-4) 1 1 30
9 Arunachal Pradesh 11 Lac 17393 ( 2003-4) 2 1 60
10 Goa 13.47 Lac 53092 (2002-3) 2 1 40
11 Nagaland 19 Lac 18911 (2001-2) 1 1 60
12 Manipur 21.66 Lac 14766 (2003-4) 2 1 60
13 Meghalaya 23.18 Lac 18135 (2003-4) 2 1 60
14 Jharkhand 26.9 Lac 12509 (2003-4) 14 6 81
15 Tripura 31 Lac 18676 (2002-3) 2 1 60
16 Himachal Pradesh 60 Lac 24903 (2003-4) 4 3 68
17 Uttaranchal 84 Lac 13260 (2001-2) 5 3 70
18 J&K 1 Crore 13320 ( 2001-2) 6 4 87
19 Delhi 1.38 Crore 51.664 (2003-4) 7 3 70
20 Chhattisgarh 2.0 Crore 14863 ( 2003-4) 11 5 90
21 Haryana 2.11 Crore 29963 ( 2003-4) 9 5 90
22 Punjab 2.4 Crore 27851 (2003-4) 13 7 117
23 Assam 2.65 Crore 13139 ( 2003-4) 14 7 126
24 Kerala 3.18 Crore 24492 ( 2003-4) 19 9 140
25 Orissa 3.68 Crore 12388 (2003-4) 21 10 147
26 Gujarat 5 Crore 26979 ( 2003-4) 26 11 182
27 Karnataka 5.28 Crore 21696 (2003-4) 28 12 225
28 Rajasthan 5.60 Crore 15486 (2003-4) 25 10 200
29 M.P. 6 Crore 14011 (2003-4) 29 11 230
30 Tamilnadu 6.2 Crore 23358 (2003-4) 39 18 234
31 Andhra Pradesh 7.6 Crore 20,757 (2003-4) 42 18 295
32 West Bengal 8 Crore 20896 (2003-4) 42 16 294
33 Bihar 8.29 Crore 5780 ( 2003-4) 40 16 243
34 Maharashtra 9.68 Crore 29204 (2003-4) 47 19 288
35 Uttar Pradesh 16.61 Crore 10817 (2003-4) 80 31 403
I must also advice that you convince your colleagues on increasing the salary of M.P.’s, and this is one thing that they might or might not agree. 545 Member of parliaments run this country. Let them have the best salaries. I will recommend for them salaries starting Rs.2.5 Crores with a larger bonus on performance. Reasonable cause for this high salary is that;
1. We will get the best brains drawn to politics
2. Public will not let incompetent people to be elected to such ‘high paying offices’ and public outcry will question non performance for the high salaries
3. Bribes ‘might’ stop
4. People taking such salaries will have guilt if they did not deliver (at least we can hope so !!).
Recently, I interviewed more than 100 students of a top internationally renowned management institution at Mumbai and was both happy and felt at a loss. I am glad that we have a logical and a responsible youth contrary to media perception. But i felt sorry that, they are lacking proper guidance and so they are disillusioned. We must unleash the power of youth, more so, of women power. Then only we will begin a new era of growth.
Recession is equally big an opportunity as robust economic growth.
Economic Forecast for 2009: If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors. So in all , i guess this year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected, this might impact this growth a little more and bring it down well under 6.0 %
You will not be remembered for how you managed the crisis of the 90’s but how you manage 09. That time, we were alone in the crisis and compulsions left with you with only one option. Now it is a Global crisis . Only intelligent and effective leadership can work. I see so many opportunities and endless possibilities. Hope see that as well. Good Luck !
Dr.Singh, we cannot drive our car looking at other cars rear view mirror. We must drive our car from within and people cannot steer it from outside. This has a message for you. Look inside and drive India to glory, out of recession
I hope i have made a point
Best regards
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
Mobile: 09323109456 / 9867300045
Dr. Manmohan Singh
Prime Minister &
Minister for Finance
Government of India
New Delhi
Subject: Economic policies and the current turmoil- Recommendations
Dear Dr.Singh,
I am writing this letter to draw your attention to the issues affecting the nation and some practical solutions
On the outset, I wish to place it on record that I am neither a world renowned Economist nor a Nobel Laureate but have spend 12 successful years at the helm of many corporate companies more so because of my approach rather than some other qualification. As an ever lasting student of the corporate world, my focus has been on constant innovations and prioritizations in order to simplify complex situations and search for practical, achievable and sustainable solutions. The spirit and essence of this communiqué flow from these thoughts.
and trust me, if you follow my advice, we can certainly come out of the recession faster and emerge stronger. There are lessons to be learned to make India stronger
Let me clear you that India is in a recession and that we are headed for a severe recession if we don’t take immediate steps. I wish to quote you the following data to enlighten you about the same.
• Exports :According to the President ,Federation of Indian Export Organizations ( FIEO), Mr.A.Sakthvel, 2009 is going to be the worst year in history and the Indian Exporters may cut 10 million jobs by March as the orders are drying up
• Slow down in the leather industry is likely to axe 5 lakh workers in leather units in the next three to four months with worsening market scenario in US and Europe . The industry employs almost 2.5 million people. Ref: The Economic Times dated Jan 2009.
• Tax Collections :The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( Ref: The Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )
• Corporate - Domestic slowdown Net profit of India Inc. likely to decline by almost 46 % in the 3rd Quarter of third fiscal .Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 08.
• The private sector abandoned projects worth 44 billion in the third quarter of 2008
• Insurance Sector April to Nov 08 , the insurer’s first premium income and number of policies sold were down by 14 % - Ref : The Economic Times dated 3rd Jan 2009
• Banking SectorFor a leading private bank , between Nov and Dec 08 the credit card delinquency increased to 26 %
• The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.
• Aviation Sector Jet airways and Jet lite have defaulted in payments of Rs. 32.78 Cr to AAI TOI 29th Dec 08. Airline industry is expected be in deep red this year
• Hospitality Sector The hotel occupancy has dropped by 50 %. Ref : The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Diamond Sector 60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs. (Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council (GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry. Ref: The Economic Times dated 28th Dec 2008
• Auto & transport Sector Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India is via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva, President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and Dec alone, close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. Ref The Mint – Wall street Journal dated Dec 26th 2008
• IT sector is likely to lay off 50,000 people in the next 6 months. Already layoffs are happening across sectors
Let’s look back as to why we have had a problem ? We built an economy on dollars, FDI and stock market and not on 600 million people who live on 2.5 USD a day. We have tried to compete with China or serve the developed world. The outsourcing business is not build on merits other than low costs of human capital. We don’t have a lasting story if we bank on cheap labour only!! We need to capitalize on our resources internally and not become a body shopping country. But till now, we have let others capitalize on our strengths. You will have to change this. Common minimum programme has to be Common man’s programme
India has always been a land of ‘Rishi’ and ‘Krishi’. We forgot this aspect of India. We still have not done much for the farmers of this nation. We know for sure that 18 % of the GDP (agriculture) supports 60 % of the population. Kamal Nath believes that this might not be possible. I must correct him. What we need is value addition to agriculture and connecting the value chain of agriculture business to farmers at the place of produce. We need to think more about farmers producing cash crops besides staple crop. We need to increase the value of 18 %. We must note that 80 % farms in India are smaller than 5 acres. From 1971-96, the average size of the farms has reduced from 2.3 to 1.4 acres. Whilst, in the developing countries the average farm size has decreased, same has increased in developed world.
Having given the above mentioned data let me inform you that in abnormally tough times you cannot take routine decisions. Baby steps would not help. Severe crisis needs several big interventions. You need to take drastic steps. Some of which i am putting for your immediate consideration
Just lowering the interest rate or some small duty cuts would not raise the morale of the countrymen. This is a crisis of comfort and confidence both. You are testing waters by lowering the rates in monthly reviews and at intervals. Not realising that that these SOPS in instalments are deteriorating the economy and the morale of the people is suffering as time is passing. We are drifting in the ‘quick sand of recession’. Please consider, people do not buy because a particular product or service is cheap. But the buying decision is dependent on certainty of income and availability of cheap capital coupled with host of other social and market factors. Seeing what is happening in the country, i don’t see a positive mood till you take drastic steps like,
1. Replace the portfolio of Minister of Finance with the Minister for economic development
2. Have a dedicated secretariat to monitor the economic indicators and look to prevent surprises and signal disasters much in advance- in short to do a overall risk assessment across sectors in the economy. They should have no other job than to forecast and warn against the impending threats to the economic growth
3. Have a dedicated minister for modern agriculture practices
4. Dedicate a separate ministries for each innovation ,poverty alleviation and PPP- Public Private partnerships . PPP must be encouraged in all sectors
5. Economic policies should be more inward looking than foreign dependent
6. Tax rates must be reduced for individuals in one go and in a massive manner and not in instalments
7. Fuel rates should be reduced immediately and be made market driven
8. We need to focus and take immediate steps for setting up Agri and processed foods SEZ on an urgent basis.
9. Announce incentives for organic farming.
10. Announce incentives for tourism
11. Government must give big push to vocational training and employment for students
12. Increase recruitment for teachers , police and other government staff
13. Scholarships for education and R&D must be given
14. Lower the bank interest rates for corporate lending to around 9 % at one go.
15. Home loan rates be immediately reduced to 7.5 % for amount up to Rs. 5 lac, 8 % above 5 Lac till 20 Lac, 8.5 % for amount above Rs. 20 lac till Rs.50 Lac and 9 % for amounts above Rs. 50 Lac. The customers must be allowed to get these at fixed rates and not floating rates for a period of 20 years. Construction boom will increase activity in a lot of infrastructure industries like construction workers, cement, iron and steel and paints etc. which will add to the economy in a big way. All these must be lowered in one go rather in instalments
16. While you give incentives to the infrastructure , you must appoint a housing regulator to bring in confidence of a fair play amongst the investors
17. Government must build houses for weakest sections of the society to be leased on rentals and not be sold
18. Banks must be mandated for giving loans to students for vocational courses without any guarantor .This will lead to enhancement of skills and employment and the loan amounts will be small. Plus the bank will secure the loans as the students cannot get the job without clearance from banks !! So safer loans. People can earn and pay along
19. IT sector must focus on agriculture sector & education– This one step will take India to a better placed economy
20. Big corporates must be mandated to outsource 2.5 % of their requirement to SSI (Small scale industries).
21. Encourage Small scale industries and incentivise them by making them tax free for 3 years
22. SSI based SEZ must be considered for every state
23. Agriculture and food processing SEZ must be established near ports and in every state
24. Don’t transform Mumbai to Shanghai. Create more Mumbai’s in India. Have realistic goals
25. Remove bureaucratic hurdles to set up small businesses like removing multiple approvals. Let it be a single window clearance for setting up a shop or small business
We must be focussed on servicing our population and not be dependent on globalization. We have learned now that building an economy based on just FDI will not be a stable economy. We need to learn a lesson from the BJP’s Swadeshi strategy. Albeit in a different manner. Let the financing be local and focus on intrinsic industries. Agriculture, and SSI is good enough to give stable growth to the economy
Unchecked capitalism has failed in USA . Now America is fast moving towards being a socialistic economy – American government is funding and buying into big defaulting and bankrupt corporations thus socialising the economy. It is clear that you can’t build a great economy on capitalist lines. I have my serious doubts on Barack being able to revive US capitalist economy. In India, we have only four five major corporates in a land of a billion people. This indicates that the policies of the government have favoured or controlled by a privileged few !! This needs to be changed immediately. Encourage entrepreneurship and SSI in an institutionalised manner and support them.
Give a push to communication, Infrastructure, healthcare, education and PPP to grow India to the next level. Have a robust pension system and a culture of long term investments and savings. This is critical to avoiding America like defaults and disaster
I must also take you through the US failure and where it might head for. The failure of America is due to lack of culture of savings and greedy & unnatural growth strategies. It is the start of the historical shift of power equation. Historically, Greek & Roman empires dominated the world. Then came the turn of Britain that controlled the world , It shifted the power equation to USSR & USA. Now it is the USA. Future undoubtedly is of China. If you care to correct the situation with drastic measures, India will be back in to glory by the year 2020 as the world’s top most power.
We have faltered due to our myopic policies. You have the opportunity to change this nation’s future by taking appropriate measures or get caught in the web of political compulsions or electoral policies. Needless to mention, peace is a precondition to progress.
See the date of different states, this tells us a lot. I have arranged in ascending order w.r.t. population
S. No State Population Per capita net state domestic product in INR No. of M.P.’s
Lok Sabha No. of M.P’s Rajya Sabha No. of Assembly seats
1 Lakshadweep 60650 N.A. 1
2 Daman & Diu 1.58 Lac NA 1
3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 2.2 Lac N.A. 1
4 Andaman & Nicobar 3.56 Lac 28340 ( 2002-3) 1
5 Sikkim 5.4 Lac 21586 (2003-4) 1 1 32
6 Mizoram 8.88 Lac 22207 (2002-3) 1 1 40
7 Chandigarh 9 Lac 57621 (2003-4) 1
8 Poducherry 9.74 Lac 50936 (2003-4) 1 1 30
9 Arunachal Pradesh 11 Lac 17393 ( 2003-4) 2 1 60
10 Goa 13.47 Lac 53092 (2002-3) 2 1 40
11 Nagaland 19 Lac 18911 (2001-2) 1 1 60
12 Manipur 21.66 Lac 14766 (2003-4) 2 1 60
13 Meghalaya 23.18 Lac 18135 (2003-4) 2 1 60
14 Jharkhand 26.9 Lac 12509 (2003-4) 14 6 81
15 Tripura 31 Lac 18676 (2002-3) 2 1 60
16 Himachal Pradesh 60 Lac 24903 (2003-4) 4 3 68
17 Uttaranchal 84 Lac 13260 (2001-2) 5 3 70
18 J&K 1 Crore 13320 ( 2001-2) 6 4 87
19 Delhi 1.38 Crore 51.664 (2003-4) 7 3 70
20 Chhattisgarh 2.0 Crore 14863 ( 2003-4) 11 5 90
21 Haryana 2.11 Crore 29963 ( 2003-4) 9 5 90
22 Punjab 2.4 Crore 27851 (2003-4) 13 7 117
23 Assam 2.65 Crore 13139 ( 2003-4) 14 7 126
24 Kerala 3.18 Crore 24492 ( 2003-4) 19 9 140
25 Orissa 3.68 Crore 12388 (2003-4) 21 10 147
26 Gujarat 5 Crore 26979 ( 2003-4) 26 11 182
27 Karnataka 5.28 Crore 21696 (2003-4) 28 12 225
28 Rajasthan 5.60 Crore 15486 (2003-4) 25 10 200
29 M.P. 6 Crore 14011 (2003-4) 29 11 230
30 Tamilnadu 6.2 Crore 23358 (2003-4) 39 18 234
31 Andhra Pradesh 7.6 Crore 20,757 (2003-4) 42 18 295
32 West Bengal 8 Crore 20896 (2003-4) 42 16 294
33 Bihar 8.29 Crore 5780 ( 2003-4) 40 16 243
34 Maharashtra 9.68 Crore 29204 (2003-4) 47 19 288
35 Uttar Pradesh 16.61 Crore 10817 (2003-4) 80 31 403
I must also advice that you convince your colleagues on increasing the salary of M.P.’s, and this is one thing that they might or might not agree. 545 Member of parliaments run this country. Let them have the best salaries. I will recommend for them salaries starting Rs.2.5 Crores with a larger bonus on performance. Reasonable cause for this high salary is that;
1. We will get the best brains drawn to politics
2. Public will not let incompetent people to be elected to such ‘high paying offices’ and public outcry will question non performance for the high salaries
3. Bribes ‘might’ stop
4. People taking such salaries will have guilt if they did not deliver (at least we can hope so !!).
Recently, I interviewed more than 100 students of a top internationally renowned management institution at Mumbai and was both happy and felt at a loss. I am glad that we have a logical and a responsible youth contrary to media perception. But i felt sorry that, they are lacking proper guidance and so they are disillusioned. We must unleash the power of youth, more so, of women power. Then only we will begin a new era of growth.
Recession is equally big an opportunity as robust economic growth.
Economic Forecast for 2009: If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors. So in all , i guess this year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected, this might impact this growth a little more and bring it down well under 6.0 %
You will not be remembered for how you managed the crisis of the 90’s but how you manage 09. That time, we were alone in the crisis and compulsions left with you with only one option. Now it is a Global crisis . Only intelligent and effective leadership can work. I see so many opportunities and endless possibilities. Hope see that as well. Good Luck !
Dr.Singh, we cannot drive our car looking at other cars rear view mirror. We must drive our car from within and people cannot steer it from outside. This has a message for you. Look inside and drive India to glory, out of recession
I hope i have made a point
Best regards
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
Mobile: 09323109456 / 9867300045
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