If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors . So in all , i guess the next year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected. This might impact this growth a little more and bring it down under 6.0 %
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Economy in a severe recession- Government in a denial mode
Indian Economy is in a severe recession: Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Our Mr. Blind ( P. Chidambaram ) and Mr.Sardar ( Not Asardaar – Mr. Manmohan Singh ) have recently denied that Indian Economy is in a recession.
Except God, for everything else , i believe in data. Here is what the duo might need to relook to give up their selective blindness . Sir’s please look into the same
The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( According to the Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )
60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs . Narendra Modi has refused any package for them ( Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council ( GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry
The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.
I was recently in Delhi and talked to my cab driver ( he drives for a cab company at Delhi airport ). He informed me that, earlier he would earn between 15 – 22000.00 per month . Now for the last three months , his income has dropped to Rs.6000.00. He is expected to do a minimum of 52 trips a month which is getting difficult now . So he was worried.
Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India are via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva , President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and December 2008 alone , close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. According to The Mint dated Dec 26th 2008. With such an massive loss, just imagine what must be happening to the families of 158000 truck drivers, helpers , cleaners and the people associated with providing services at Dhabas and repairers for these trucks !! It is a solid loss for a small economy like India
All the businesses have cut down the expansion plans and the same will continue for the next year in my view . TATA motors have cut the production for two days a week, Cisco is on long Christmas and a new year holiday, All auto majors including Maruti is slowing or voluntarily suspending production to take care of the ‘standing or piled up’ inventories
ACC cement has already shut the production in one of the plants and slowed the same in others
I visited quite a few malls and talked to employees. At Lifestyle store at Mulund last year around this time , the 2nd floor has five counters. This year they just had one counter. The salesman when quizzed ,did accept that there is a drastic drop in customers and sales
Big Bazaar, has no different story. They were operating with two counters and not long queues which earlier operated eight counters. Big Bazaar has launched shopping schemes that is drawing customers but not much sales. The same scheme in 2007 March could have doubled the turnovers. ‘Marketing Steroids’ are not working well
The best mall in the country , Inorbit Mall employees had the same views. They were shocked at the drastic drops in customers and sales. Their wide aisles at the Hypercity had few customers.
Aditya Birla retail is likely to shut down around 100 out of 700 stores in the name of rationalization . They are doing a business of Rs. 5 per Sq. Feet and expenses of Rs.200 per Sq. Feet. It is a thumb rule, that such retail formats should not incur more than 120 per sq. Ft.
A month back when i visited the Fame Adlabs at Kharghar to watch the night show for the hit film Fashion, my wife and myself were refused tickets as we were the only two people to watch the movie and the counter girl told us that, she needed at least 5 people to start the show !! Did you expect this in good times !!
Reliance retail is no better, they have changed the strategy for the second time in the last two years and if i remain accurate in my predictions. This time again Reliance will have to redo a lot of things to avoid exiting the retail venture . All these retail majors banked on experienced retail expats . Who themselves wanted to ‘Earn while Learn in India ’ at the cost of these employers.
Some organised retailers are not even in a position to recover their expenses , losses are mounting and credit is moving at an escape velocity not imagined in 2007 !! Money is not available, as earlier even the small companies would value themselves on the lines of the listed companies . With stock market following the Wal-Mart model ( everyday low prices, even Wal street is joked and nick named as Wal-Mart street !!! ).Now there are no takers for these companies . Defaults are increasing day by day. We know the outcome.
Industrial production and growth is slowed . I believe that at this time , for most businesses , survival is the main question and not growth or profits !! . Takeovers will happen or closures. In India , bankruptcy is not practised widely. So we will see closures. The government should keep vigilant on big business houses for accounting and reporting in case they are listed, or we might see a fraud and failure like Enron or WorldCom. This is a step to avoid ‘financial terrorism’ . Some business houses ‘control’ many politicians and this is an area of big concern. We have created unequal wealth in the form of strong and gigantic business houses who are iconic Any wrong doing in such a big business houses would be like a corporate suicide and will severely impact the market scenario. I don’t rule out ‘accounting manipulations’ or ‘jugglery’ in these ‘tough times’ to keep the image and reputation intact for such big business houses.
Even the TATA’s are not able to raise funds , the rights issue was a case in point . DLF , Unitech were rising stars in 2007 are shooting stars now. Projects are delayed and more news is to come in the times ahead.
The Dec 08 quarter results of companies will be disappointing and that will take the shine off the Indian growth and strong fundamentals story.
I urge our politicians to give up the ‘Academic definition’ of recession and accept that we are into a recession and take steps to correct the path going forward .
Let’s see the countries by their GDP and their share in the World GDP. India may not be more than a rounding error at this point !!
2006 GDP USD GDP as % of the world GDP
1.USA 13,201,819 27.3
2. Japan 4,340,133 8.9
3. Germany 2,906,681 6.0
4. China 2,668,071 5.5
5. UK 2,345,015 4.8
6. France 2,230,721 4.6
7. Italy 1,844,749 3.8
8. Canada 1,251,463 2.6
9. Spain 1,223,988 2.5
10. Brazil 1,067,962 2.2
Top Ten Total 33,080,602 68.6
World 48,244,879 100.0
Chinese Consumer spending is to reach USD 1.3 Trillion this year, France USD 1.4 trillion, US economy is USD 9.9 Trillion , India is just 660 Billion according to the Mint Dec 23 , 2008. So if the world’s biggest economies is de-growing and we are dependent on these countries. How can we say that we are not into a recession ??? Are you talking sense Mr.P.C and Mr. Singh ????. Those who buy clothes and other merchandise from US / Europe know well, that all leading brands outsource their production to India , Bangladesh and Sri Lanka . Now that the sales are down, these countries are under sever loss . USA, Japan and Europe account for 68 % of the world GDP and they are into recession. Do we need more reasons to convince ourselves that we are heading towards a more severe recession. Problem started with US , till it ends in the US the problem the world over will continue. The interest rates in USA and Japan have come close to zero. China will get into recession or pass on the pressures to countries like India via dumping cheaper goods to avoid recession. This is one area where India needs to be watchful. US recession will also pass on pressures to nations dependent on its economy
I believe that congress may take to surgical strikes to play with the public sentiment , to dodge the economic issues to come into power. Forgetting , that the parliament attacker is still alive. All these steps should have been taken when parliament was attacked . If then we did not act then, i see no reason to act except for the fact that the elections are near . The government needs to fight many forms of terrorism . i.e. Economic terrorism, militant terrorism ,healthcare terrorism ( seeing that 6000 children die every day below the age of 5 years due to disease and malnutrition ). Few reasons that India might not attack Pakistan are that , we are working with weapons which are Bofors like and secondly , our economy cannot afford to take on a full-fledged war with Pakistan, thirdly, in case we do surgical strikes , Pakistan will drop a nuclear bomb as it is not a nation that honours any pact ( All likelihood , that it will not honour its pack on this as well and quote anything stupid to justify its act.)
India needs to understand the order of world has changed with history. Earlier , the nation with a stronger military was considered stronger , then the nation which was financially stronger was stronger . Future will be for both technically and financially stronger nations . India needs to be financially and technically independent .
New year is not going to be better than 2008. So i don’t know how to wish you for 2009, but i must send my best wishes for hopeful and a pragmatic 2009 that is full of moderation in growth plans , better financial regulation , increased spending from governments , encourage and increase savings for emergencies and a more peaceful 2009
Best wishes
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org
Our Mr. Blind ( P. Chidambaram ) and Mr.Sardar ( Not Asardaar – Mr. Manmohan Singh ) have recently denied that Indian Economy is in a recession.
Except God, for everything else , i believe in data. Here is what the duo might need to relook to give up their selective blindness . Sir’s please look into the same
The Tax collections for December quarter dropped by 22 % ( According to the Economic Times dated 27th Dec 2008 )
60 % of the 8000 units into diamond polishing and cutting business went on forced holiday leaving 100,000 people without jobs . Narendra Modi has refused any package for them ( Times of India 27th Dec 2008). There is a 40 % reduction in demand according to Gems and Jewellery Promotion Council ( GJEPC). Exports account for $ 20 billion in the industry
The gross NPA’s of banks will reach 4.7 % of the total loans in FY10 from the current of 2.3 %. Credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %. Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. In the first half of Dec 2008, in Bangalore itself there have been defaults to the tune of Rs.80.23 crore at Corporation Bank . Out of the total home loan portfolio exposure of Rs.1000 cr , 50 % is in the IT sector. Defaults will start increase going forward. We will see the real impact in April 09.
I was recently in Delhi and talked to my cab driver ( he drives for a cab company at Delhi airport ). He informed me that, earlier he would earn between 15 – 22000.00 per month . Now for the last three months , his income has dropped to Rs.6000.00. He is expected to do a minimum of 52 trips a month which is getting difficult now . So he was worried.
Approx 90 % of all the commercial vehicles sold in India are via loans. Kotak Mahindra Bank has repossessed about 200 vehicles. Deepak Sachdeva , President of the Delhi Goods Transport association said that between April and December 2008 alone , close to 158000 commercial vehicles were either surrendered or repossessed due to loan defaults. According to The Mint dated Dec 26th 2008. With such an massive loss, just imagine what must be happening to the families of 158000 truck drivers, helpers , cleaners and the people associated with providing services at Dhabas and repairers for these trucks !! It is a solid loss for a small economy like India
All the businesses have cut down the expansion plans and the same will continue for the next year in my view . TATA motors have cut the production for two days a week, Cisco is on long Christmas and a new year holiday, All auto majors including Maruti is slowing or voluntarily suspending production to take care of the ‘standing or piled up’ inventories
ACC cement has already shut the production in one of the plants and slowed the same in others
I visited quite a few malls and talked to employees. At Lifestyle store at Mulund last year around this time , the 2nd floor has five counters. This year they just had one counter. The salesman when quizzed ,did accept that there is a drastic drop in customers and sales
Big Bazaar, has no different story. They were operating with two counters and not long queues which earlier operated eight counters. Big Bazaar has launched shopping schemes that is drawing customers but not much sales. The same scheme in 2007 March could have doubled the turnovers. ‘Marketing Steroids’ are not working well
The best mall in the country , Inorbit Mall employees had the same views. They were shocked at the drastic drops in customers and sales. Their wide aisles at the Hypercity had few customers.
Aditya Birla retail is likely to shut down around 100 out of 700 stores in the name of rationalization . They are doing a business of Rs. 5 per Sq. Feet and expenses of Rs.200 per Sq. Feet. It is a thumb rule, that such retail formats should not incur more than 120 per sq. Ft.
A month back when i visited the Fame Adlabs at Kharghar to watch the night show for the hit film Fashion, my wife and myself were refused tickets as we were the only two people to watch the movie and the counter girl told us that, she needed at least 5 people to start the show !! Did you expect this in good times !!
Reliance retail is no better, they have changed the strategy for the second time in the last two years and if i remain accurate in my predictions. This time again Reliance will have to redo a lot of things to avoid exiting the retail venture . All these retail majors banked on experienced retail expats . Who themselves wanted to ‘Earn while Learn in India ’ at the cost of these employers.
Some organised retailers are not even in a position to recover their expenses , losses are mounting and credit is moving at an escape velocity not imagined in 2007 !! Money is not available, as earlier even the small companies would value themselves on the lines of the listed companies . With stock market following the Wal-Mart model ( everyday low prices, even Wal street is joked and nick named as Wal-Mart street !!! ).Now there are no takers for these companies . Defaults are increasing day by day. We know the outcome.
Industrial production and growth is slowed . I believe that at this time , for most businesses , survival is the main question and not growth or profits !! . Takeovers will happen or closures. In India , bankruptcy is not practised widely. So we will see closures. The government should keep vigilant on big business houses for accounting and reporting in case they are listed, or we might see a fraud and failure like Enron or WorldCom. This is a step to avoid ‘financial terrorism’ . Some business houses ‘control’ many politicians and this is an area of big concern. We have created unequal wealth in the form of strong and gigantic business houses who are iconic Any wrong doing in such a big business houses would be like a corporate suicide and will severely impact the market scenario. I don’t rule out ‘accounting manipulations’ or ‘jugglery’ in these ‘tough times’ to keep the image and reputation intact for such big business houses.
Even the TATA’s are not able to raise funds , the rights issue was a case in point . DLF , Unitech were rising stars in 2007 are shooting stars now. Projects are delayed and more news is to come in the times ahead.
The Dec 08 quarter results of companies will be disappointing and that will take the shine off the Indian growth and strong fundamentals story.
I urge our politicians to give up the ‘Academic definition’ of recession and accept that we are into a recession and take steps to correct the path going forward .
Let’s see the countries by their GDP and their share in the World GDP. India may not be more than a rounding error at this point !!
2006 GDP USD GDP as % of the world GDP
1.USA 13,201,819 27.3
2. Japan 4,340,133 8.9
3. Germany 2,906,681 6.0
4. China 2,668,071 5.5
5. UK 2,345,015 4.8
6. France 2,230,721 4.6
7. Italy 1,844,749 3.8
8. Canada 1,251,463 2.6
9. Spain 1,223,988 2.5
10. Brazil 1,067,962 2.2
Top Ten Total 33,080,602 68.6
World 48,244,879 100.0
Chinese Consumer spending is to reach USD 1.3 Trillion this year, France USD 1.4 trillion, US economy is USD 9.9 Trillion , India is just 660 Billion according to the Mint Dec 23 , 2008. So if the world’s biggest economies is de-growing and we are dependent on these countries. How can we say that we are not into a recession ??? Are you talking sense Mr.P.C and Mr. Singh ????. Those who buy clothes and other merchandise from US / Europe know well, that all leading brands outsource their production to India , Bangladesh and Sri Lanka . Now that the sales are down, these countries are under sever loss . USA, Japan and Europe account for 68 % of the world GDP and they are into recession. Do we need more reasons to convince ourselves that we are heading towards a more severe recession. Problem started with US , till it ends in the US the problem the world over will continue. The interest rates in USA and Japan have come close to zero. China will get into recession or pass on the pressures to countries like India via dumping cheaper goods to avoid recession. This is one area where India needs to be watchful. US recession will also pass on pressures to nations dependent on its economy
I believe that congress may take to surgical strikes to play with the public sentiment , to dodge the economic issues to come into power. Forgetting , that the parliament attacker is still alive. All these steps should have been taken when parliament was attacked . If then we did not act then, i see no reason to act except for the fact that the elections are near . The government needs to fight many forms of terrorism . i.e. Economic terrorism, militant terrorism ,healthcare terrorism ( seeing that 6000 children die every day below the age of 5 years due to disease and malnutrition ). Few reasons that India might not attack Pakistan are that , we are working with weapons which are Bofors like and secondly , our economy cannot afford to take on a full-fledged war with Pakistan, thirdly, in case we do surgical strikes , Pakistan will drop a nuclear bomb as it is not a nation that honours any pact ( All likelihood , that it will not honour its pack on this as well and quote anything stupid to justify its act.)
India needs to understand the order of world has changed with history. Earlier , the nation with a stronger military was considered stronger , then the nation which was financially stronger was stronger . Future will be for both technically and financially stronger nations . India needs to be financially and technically independent .
New year is not going to be better than 2008. So i don’t know how to wish you for 2009, but i must send my best wishes for hopeful and a pragmatic 2009 that is full of moderation in growth plans , better financial regulation , increased spending from governments , encourage and increase savings for emergencies and a more peaceful 2009
Best wishes
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
www.countryfirst.org
Monday, December 22, 2008
India is a poor country but Indians are rich
LOOK WHERE OUR MONEY IS GOING????
Revelation on Swiss Bank Accounts "who can save india no one knows where tax payer money is going "
Revelation on Swiss Bank Accounts
This is so shocking . . . . . wish black money deposits was an Olympics event . . . . . India would have won a gold medal hands down.
The second best Russia has 4 times lesser deposit. US is not even there in the counting in top five !! India has more money in Swiss banks than all the other countries combined !!!!
Recently, due to international pressure, Swiss govt. agreed to disclose the names of the account holders only if the respective govts formally asked for it. Indian govt. is not asking for the details . .
. . no marks for guessing why ????
We need to start a movement to pressurise the govt. to do so !!
This is perhaps the only way, and a golden opportunity, to expose the high and mighty and weed out corruption !!
Please read on . . . . . and forward to all the honest Indians to . .. . . like somebody is forwarding to you . . . . . and build a ground-swell of support for action !!
Is India poor, who says? Ask Swiss banks With personal account deposit bank of $1500 billion in foreign reserve which have been misappropriated, an amount 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt, one needs to rethink if India is a poor country?.
DISHONEST INDUSTRIALISTS, scandalous politicians and corrupt IAS, IRS, IPS officers have deposited in foreign banks in their illegal personal accounts a sum of about $ 1500 billion, which have been misappropriated by them. This amount is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt. With this amount 45 crore poor people can get Rs 1,00,000 each.
This huge amount has been appropriated from the people of India by exploiting and betraying them.
Once this huge amount of black money & property comes back to India , the entire foreign debt can be repaid in 24 hours. After paying the entire foreign debt, we will have surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the foreign debt. If this surplus amount is invested in
earning interest, the amount of interest will be more than the annual budget of the Central government. So even if all the taxes are abolished, then also the Central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably..
Some 80,000 people travel to Switzerland every year, of whom 25,000 travel very frequently. 'Obviously, these people won't be tourists.
They must be travelling there for some other reason,' believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who've been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organisation (WTO)
negotiations went into a tailspin!
Just read the following details and note how these dishonest industrialists, scandalous politicians, corrupt officers, cricketers, film actors, illegal sex trade and protected wildlife operators, to name just a few, sucked this country's wealth and prosperity. This may
be the picture of deposits in Swiss banks only. What about other international banks?
Black money in Swiss banks -- Swiss Banking Association report, 2006 details bank deposits in the territory of Switzerland by nationals of following countries :
Top Five
1. India ---- $1,456 billion
2. Russia ---$ 470 billion
3. UK -------$390 billion
4. Ukraine - $100 billion
5. China -----$ 96 billion
Now do the maths - India with $1456 billion or $1.4 trillion has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined.
Public loot since 1947: Can we bring back our money? It is one of the biggest loots witnessed by mankind -- the loot of the Aam Aadmi (common man) since 1947, by his
brethren occupying public office.
It has been orchestrated by politicians, bureaucrats and some businessmen. The list is almost all-encompassing. No wonder, everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear. What is even more depressing in that this ill-gotten wealth of ours has been stashed
away abroad into secret bank accounts located in some of the world's best known tax havens. And to that extent the Indian economy has been stripped of its wealth.
Ordinary Indians may not be exactly aware of how such secret accounts operate and what are the rules and regulations that go on to govern such tax havens. However, one may well be aware of 'Swiss bank accounts,' the shorthand for murky dealings, secrecy and of course
pilferage from developing countries into rich developed ones.
In fact, some finance experts and economists believe taxhavens to be a conspiracy of the western world against the poor countries. By allowing the proliferation of tax havens in the twentieth century, the western world explicitly encourages the movement of scarce capital
from the developing countries to the rich.
In March 2005, the Tax Justice Network (TJN) published a research finding demonstrating that $11.5 trillion of personal wealth was held offshore by rich individuals across the globe. The findings estimated that a large proportion of this wealth was managed from some 70 tax
havens. Further,augmenting these studies of TJN, Raymond Baker -- in his widely celebrated book titled 'Capitalism' s Achilles Heel : Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free Market System' -- estimates that at least $5 trillion have been shifted out of poorer countries to the
West since the mid-1970.
It is further estimated by experts that 1 % of the world's population holds more than 57 % of total global wealth, routing it invariably through these tax havens. How much of this is from India is anybody's guess. What is to be noted here is that most of the wealth of Indians
parked in these tax havens is illegitimate money acquired through corrupt means.
Naturally, the secrecy associated with the bank accounts in such places is central to the issue, not their low tax rates as the term 'tax havens' suggests. Remember Bofors and how India could not trace the ultimate beneficiary of those transactions because of the secrecy
associated with these bank accounts?
IS THERE ANY ONE WHO CAN SAVE INDIA ?
Rajendra Pratap Gupta, U.S.Economy, Indian economy enters recession,Winter in USA, Christmas, Snow Fall, Bailout of Auto majors,GM motors,Stock markets in USA , stock markets crash, stock markets crash, Economic theory
Revelation on Swiss Bank Accounts "who can save india no one knows where tax payer money is going "
Revelation on Swiss Bank Accounts
This is so shocking . . . . . wish black money deposits was an Olympics event . . . . . India would have won a gold medal hands down.
The second best Russia has 4 times lesser deposit. US is not even there in the counting in top five !! India has more money in Swiss banks than all the other countries combined !!!!
Recently, due to international pressure, Swiss govt. agreed to disclose the names of the account holders only if the respective govts formally asked for it. Indian govt. is not asking for the details . .
. . no marks for guessing why ????
We need to start a movement to pressurise the govt. to do so !!
This is perhaps the only way, and a golden opportunity, to expose the high and mighty and weed out corruption !!
Please read on . . . . . and forward to all the honest Indians to . .. . . like somebody is forwarding to you . . . . . and build a ground-swell of support for action !!
Is India poor, who says? Ask Swiss banks With personal account deposit bank of $1500 billion in foreign reserve which have been misappropriated, an amount 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt, one needs to rethink if India is a poor country?.
DISHONEST INDUSTRIALISTS, scandalous politicians and corrupt IAS, IRS, IPS officers have deposited in foreign banks in their illegal personal accounts a sum of about $ 1500 billion, which have been misappropriated by them. This amount is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt. With this amount 45 crore poor people can get Rs 1,00,000 each.
This huge amount has been appropriated from the people of India by exploiting and betraying them.
Once this huge amount of black money & property comes back to India , the entire foreign debt can be repaid in 24 hours. After paying the entire foreign debt, we will have surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the foreign debt. If this surplus amount is invested in
earning interest, the amount of interest will be more than the annual budget of the Central government. So even if all the taxes are abolished, then also the Central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably..
Some 80,000 people travel to Switzerland every year, of whom 25,000 travel very frequently. 'Obviously, these people won't be tourists.
They must be travelling there for some other reason,' believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who've been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organisation (WTO)
negotiations went into a tailspin!
Just read the following details and note how these dishonest industrialists, scandalous politicians, corrupt officers, cricketers, film actors, illegal sex trade and protected wildlife operators, to name just a few, sucked this country's wealth and prosperity. This may
be the picture of deposits in Swiss banks only. What about other international banks?
Black money in Swiss banks -- Swiss Banking Association report, 2006 details bank deposits in the territory of Switzerland by nationals of following countries :
Top Five
1. India ---- $1,456 billion
2. Russia ---$ 470 billion
3. UK -------$390 billion
4. Ukraine - $100 billion
5. China -----$ 96 billion
Now do the maths - India with $1456 billion or $1.4 trillion has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined.
Public loot since 1947: Can we bring back our money? It is one of the biggest loots witnessed by mankind -- the loot of the Aam Aadmi (common man) since 1947, by his
brethren occupying public office.
It has been orchestrated by politicians, bureaucrats and some businessmen. The list is almost all-encompassing. No wonder, everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear. What is even more depressing in that this ill-gotten wealth of ours has been stashed
away abroad into secret bank accounts located in some of the world's best known tax havens. And to that extent the Indian economy has been stripped of its wealth.
Ordinary Indians may not be exactly aware of how such secret accounts operate and what are the rules and regulations that go on to govern such tax havens. However, one may well be aware of 'Swiss bank accounts,' the shorthand for murky dealings, secrecy and of course
pilferage from developing countries into rich developed ones.
In fact, some finance experts and economists believe taxhavens to be a conspiracy of the western world against the poor countries. By allowing the proliferation of tax havens in the twentieth century, the western world explicitly encourages the movement of scarce capital
from the developing countries to the rich.
In March 2005, the Tax Justice Network (TJN) published a research finding demonstrating that $11.5 trillion of personal wealth was held offshore by rich individuals across the globe. The findings estimated that a large proportion of this wealth was managed from some 70 tax
havens. Further,augmenting these studies of TJN, Raymond Baker -- in his widely celebrated book titled 'Capitalism' s Achilles Heel : Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free Market System' -- estimates that at least $5 trillion have been shifted out of poorer countries to the
West since the mid-1970.
It is further estimated by experts that 1 % of the world's population holds more than 57 % of total global wealth, routing it invariably through these tax havens. How much of this is from India is anybody's guess. What is to be noted here is that most of the wealth of Indians
parked in these tax havens is illegitimate money acquired through corrupt means.
Naturally, the secrecy associated with the bank accounts in such places is central to the issue, not their low tax rates as the term 'tax havens' suggests. Remember Bofors and how India could not trace the ultimate beneficiary of those transactions because of the secrecy
associated with these bank accounts?
IS THERE ANY ONE WHO CAN SAVE INDIA ?
Rajendra Pratap Gupta, U.S.Economy, Indian economy enters recession,Winter in USA, Christmas, Snow Fall, Bailout of Auto majors,GM motors,Stock markets in USA , stock markets crash, stock markets crash, Economic theory
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Indian Economy
Indian Economy – two sides of the same coin
Why is Indian economy in recession? Indian economy was known as the most intriguing economy for the last three years. There was a lot of hype and hoopla created around the same, everyone wanted to ride the booming India. Some called it the ‘rise of the east’ or ‘a billion under-served customers’. It was the country no one wanted to miss. What happened? What went wrong and why at all?
Firstly, a few things led to a sudden hype. Rise of Infosys and Wipro’s, TATA Tetley acquisition, Arcelor Mittal takeover, Indra Nooyi taking over PepsiCo as CEO, Arun Sarin over Vodafone etc... This was backed by a lot of media coverage.
Secondly, the triumvirate of Manmohan Singh , P. Chidambaram & Montek Singh talking of a double digit growth excited a lot enthusiasm of politically connected ( and not so politically connected ) business groups to enter into ‘businesses of future’ like infrastructure , power, retail etc... This was based on ‘Big Talk’ of the triumvirate. We all know how many people pumped in money at unrealistic valuations and market was heated up beyond logic, banks were also enjoying the party, share market was expanding like a balloon, manpower was charging anything and still jumping for tempting offers, retail was spotting everywhere. Result: competition became suicidal. Money got pumped into real estate and supply increased and the prices soared. Brands started fighting for space and not profits. Finally, reality was surfacing; growth was not double digits; which the triumvirate shouted for three years. We saw profits were not as projected, corporates were missing numbers, shutting the outlets and man power layoffs. Just forcing Jet airways to take back air hostesses will not cover the reality............how unfortunate!!!
Thirdly, the ‘Big consulting majors’ were talking in 2007 -8 about the multi-billion dollar markets suddenly growing three fold or four fold by 2012-15. How stupid of CEO’s who believed these news releases of these so called ‘big consulting majors’ and spent millions to buy their reports & finally presented their boards with these rosy projections and raised funds. Now they are shying about the current share prices and valuations (let’s not even talk about growth achievements versus plan or the crazy profits numbers!!!)
All the three factors basically did no good but just created a ‘sexy story’ about a nation like India, where more than 70 % people don’t have access to basic healthcare, only 3 % dabble in stock markets, only 10 towns can boast of a retail revolution, has 36 billionaires and more than 800 million living on about a dollar a day.
Let’s evaluate a little more ........When people talked of India in 2007 they talked about big IT giants , call centre’s high paying jobs to teen agers, overseas acquisitions of TATA’s & Mittal’s, Mumbai becoming like Shanghai, Big malls coming , dollars flowing as FDI, Big brands coming to India , MNC’s coming to India, ballooning stock markets, BPO’s multi million outsourcing contracts & the great retail revolution. Now with US / Europe in recession and may be, with Barack taking over as the next US President. India will have to take a big hit. We just saw the first wave of negative effects of the US Financial market collapse. India’s stock market crashed almost to a third of its high. With India’s IT / BPO shying and taking to lay off’s, we know the real estate sector would be hit as the entire 2 BHK ( Two bed room , hall & Kitchen ) flat story was built on these young ‘Ripe aged’ employees buying flats at the age of 25-30. Splurging on mobiles and white goods by credit cards ............all this is over (believe me!!)
The hype was more of a story of 36 billionaires , Infosys, TATA, Arcelor, stock market manipulations , FDI and not the story of economic development & and the 800 million population. What we see happening was a foregone conclusion. It was not a ‘bubbling economy’ but an ‘economic bubble’. And it got burst
When the banks started hiring recovery agents, it was the start of the default / delinquency crises (credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %). Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. When the government has to get in to pump in money or the so called confidence, It’s a sure shot sign of crisis or recession or both.
I wish that congress leaders should have thought well before announcing a Rs.60000 crore write off for farmers. This has put a pressure on banks and it will manifest in banking / loan crises. Now imagine, I am a farmer with an Rs.10000 loan for my sister’s marriage or due to a crop failure (trust me, farmers crisis has come due to rise in social costs as much as crop failure). If my loan was waived off what it did to me? Firstly, it gave me nothing to raise a healthy crop and earn for the season so my problem would be standing as such on my head. Has it given me seeds or irrigation which i needed? I could have earned and paid for the loans in the next few years (a moratorium on payments & Interest was more than enough). Moreover, it has set a precedent for me not to pay my loans and hope for future waivers. When politics drives finance, chaos is the only outcome.
Take a cue from USA . They have pumped 700 billion dollars ( India cannot think of even a tenth of this amount in the case of a crises !!! ). This pumping of funds actually helped the banking system in the US and not the economy as people have been made to believe in !
We can knock off any crises if India develops an indigenous model for growth in which technology only becomes the enabler and not the key driver or determinant. What i am pointing is that, we need not depend on FDI totally. When FDI came in, we were roaming the whole world and shouting about it. Now that these economies are under crises, they will take care of their home first, and may even exit from our country as we have seen in the case of FII’s exiting the stock market and leading to a sudden crash. We must have started our economy with 75 % dependence on domestic and 25 % on foreign fund generation besides a host of infrastructure & ground level measures. We need a ‘self reliant India growth model’ and not a USA – Europe dependent-driven growth model. Hope the policy makers will learn from the crises & take steps to correct it.
Now a day’s the most talked about line from the ruling politicians is, that India is fundamentally strong economy. Which ‘Fundamentals’ are they referring to ? Our consumer sentiment is low, stock markets have crashed, industrial production is low , inflation is high, uncertainty is looming over every corporate , retrenchment is happening , rupee is weak against the dollar, farmers that constitute 65-70 % of the population are committing suicides , IT & BPO industry is hit hard due to US –Europe recession, terrorism and lawlessness is rampant. I am still trying to get which fundaments appear to be strong !!! Is it the large suffering population that is being referred to ?
Coming to the most happening sector – The great Indian retail story : I see some retailers having burnt their fingers in metros , now are planning of moving to class II & III towns for the next cycle of growth. Let me express boldly, that this will be a big loss making proposition. In towns like Mumbai and Gurgaon, retailers are having a tough time, how come they will survive in smaller towns with more ‘service class’ & ‘Small time traders’ people. At least , bigger towns have industries and other corporates to support higher spending opportunities. Some learned Advisors have informed these retailers that 70 % of India lives in rural areas so rural India is a bigger market than urban India (calculating that rural India with USD 530 income per capita is three times the population of urban India with the per capita income of USD 1200). What an ‘unintelligent logic’. The 530 USD that the rural India earns is not even enough to spend on basics, unlike urbanites who have the basics already and can afford to spend on the new class of products which supports the modern retail formats. It is analogous to three boys of seven years marrying a girl of eighteen years (3 boys x 7 years = 21 Years, marriageable age!!!). Intelligent logic isn’t!!! That’s what our great retailers are trying to do . Only smart ones are Pantaloon and Wal-mart. Rest all are smart looking idiots !!!
Retailers must realise that they are making investments for 2012-15 market projections. The figures of these projections are not even validated. But the cash burnout is happening now. Imagine this , rentals going up by 5 % every year , salaries by 20-30 % , cash burnout for new openings , increasing offering –SKU’s, reducing margins to attract customers or wash off old inventory. However can a retailer survive ? Adding to this , move to class II towns!!!
Just to make a note that if in towns like Panvel in Navi Mumbai, the two supermarkets owned by Foodland have closed within a year due to opening of ‘MORE’ supermarkets, D’mart & Reliance Fresh stores, how can small kirana stores survive? If i don’t go wrong, even ‘More’ & Reliance will have to shut down in the times to come in the area or make perpetual losses . So the retail story in its current form is not a lasting one. But the lessons are to be learnt . One thing that has happened in India which is totally wrong is that, we have tried to CCP (cut, copy and paste) foreign retailers. But we have missed to note the most important point , that foreign retailers were pretty slow in the first ten years in their country. Even Mukesh Ambani made a strategic mistake; he announced 5 billion dollar investment in retail only to face the back lash from local traders. No one expected seasoned businesses houses to make such tall claims ....This gives us a clear feeling that Indians are unaware and unprepared for the hype that has been created by the media and neither are they guided by the realities . I would call Wal-Mart the smartest retailer in India. They have just done a retail tie up in India without using its brand name . So that the Indian partner has the expense & experience and Wal-mart has the learning’s. Moreover, their growth plans are practical. Just 15 stores now compared to 600 + stores of Reliance and Birla’s. What if the Ambani’s & Birla’s want to change the strategy or make changes backwards because of their learning’s?? It is easier to correct and make changes in 15 stores of Wal-Mart then 600+ stores of Reliance or Birla’s.
We must note:
85 % of the rural India does not have the power to consume very much at the prices that currently prevail in the market.
30 % of urban India constitutes 75 % of the GDP.
70 % of the rural India constitutes 23 % of GDP
According to the Central Statistical organization, in 2001, 48 % of the rural GDP was agricultural.
In 2001, the NDP contributors were: agriculture 46 % , industry 21 % and services 33 %.
If India needs to grow sustainably, we need to make a prudent choice between education, vocational training and SSI. Needless to mention that, India’s growth will be driven by creating more jobs in lowest rungs of the society. They will build the real consumption led growth for a ‘Shining India’. The earlier, the better.
India today is in a recession and we must accept the fact. By closing our eyes the problems will still remain. We must build growth models not based on dollars , stock markets , urban India but go in for holistic models of growth that suit the local conditions and requirements , are broad based for all sections of society and industry , and just don’t reflect isolated figures .
Why is Indian economy in recession? Indian economy was known as the most intriguing economy for the last three years. There was a lot of hype and hoopla created around the same, everyone wanted to ride the booming India. Some called it the ‘rise of the east’ or ‘a billion under-served customers’. It was the country no one wanted to miss. What happened? What went wrong and why at all?
Firstly, a few things led to a sudden hype. Rise of Infosys and Wipro’s, TATA Tetley acquisition, Arcelor Mittal takeover, Indra Nooyi taking over PepsiCo as CEO, Arun Sarin over Vodafone etc... This was backed by a lot of media coverage.
Secondly, the triumvirate of Manmohan Singh , P. Chidambaram & Montek Singh talking of a double digit growth excited a lot enthusiasm of politically connected ( and not so politically connected ) business groups to enter into ‘businesses of future’ like infrastructure , power, retail etc... This was based on ‘Big Talk’ of the triumvirate. We all know how many people pumped in money at unrealistic valuations and market was heated up beyond logic, banks were also enjoying the party, share market was expanding like a balloon, manpower was charging anything and still jumping for tempting offers, retail was spotting everywhere. Result: competition became suicidal. Money got pumped into real estate and supply increased and the prices soared. Brands started fighting for space and not profits. Finally, reality was surfacing; growth was not double digits; which the triumvirate shouted for three years. We saw profits were not as projected, corporates were missing numbers, shutting the outlets and man power layoffs. Just forcing Jet airways to take back air hostesses will not cover the reality............how unfortunate!!!
Thirdly, the ‘Big consulting majors’ were talking in 2007 -8 about the multi-billion dollar markets suddenly growing three fold or four fold by 2012-15. How stupid of CEO’s who believed these news releases of these so called ‘big consulting majors’ and spent millions to buy their reports & finally presented their boards with these rosy projections and raised funds. Now they are shying about the current share prices and valuations (let’s not even talk about growth achievements versus plan or the crazy profits numbers!!!)
All the three factors basically did no good but just created a ‘sexy story’ about a nation like India, where more than 70 % people don’t have access to basic healthcare, only 3 % dabble in stock markets, only 10 towns can boast of a retail revolution, has 36 billionaires and more than 800 million living on about a dollar a day.
Let’s evaluate a little more ........When people talked of India in 2007 they talked about big IT giants , call centre’s high paying jobs to teen agers, overseas acquisitions of TATA’s & Mittal’s, Mumbai becoming like Shanghai, Big malls coming , dollars flowing as FDI, Big brands coming to India , MNC’s coming to India, ballooning stock markets, BPO’s multi million outsourcing contracts & the great retail revolution. Now with US / Europe in recession and may be, with Barack taking over as the next US President. India will have to take a big hit. We just saw the first wave of negative effects of the US Financial market collapse. India’s stock market crashed almost to a third of its high. With India’s IT / BPO shying and taking to lay off’s, we know the real estate sector would be hit as the entire 2 BHK ( Two bed room , hall & Kitchen ) flat story was built on these young ‘Ripe aged’ employees buying flats at the age of 25-30. Splurging on mobiles and white goods by credit cards ............all this is over (believe me!!)
The hype was more of a story of 36 billionaires , Infosys, TATA, Arcelor, stock market manipulations , FDI and not the story of economic development & and the 800 million population. What we see happening was a foregone conclusion. It was not a ‘bubbling economy’ but an ‘economic bubble’. And it got burst
When the banks started hiring recovery agents, it was the start of the default / delinquency crises (credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %). Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. When the government has to get in to pump in money or the so called confidence, It’s a sure shot sign of crisis or recession or both.
I wish that congress leaders should have thought well before announcing a Rs.60000 crore write off for farmers. This has put a pressure on banks and it will manifest in banking / loan crises. Now imagine, I am a farmer with an Rs.10000 loan for my sister’s marriage or due to a crop failure (trust me, farmers crisis has come due to rise in social costs as much as crop failure). If my loan was waived off what it did to me? Firstly, it gave me nothing to raise a healthy crop and earn for the season so my problem would be standing as such on my head. Has it given me seeds or irrigation which i needed? I could have earned and paid for the loans in the next few years (a moratorium on payments & Interest was more than enough). Moreover, it has set a precedent for me not to pay my loans and hope for future waivers. When politics drives finance, chaos is the only outcome.
Take a cue from USA . They have pumped 700 billion dollars ( India cannot think of even a tenth of this amount in the case of a crises !!! ). This pumping of funds actually helped the banking system in the US and not the economy as people have been made to believe in !
We can knock off any crises if India develops an indigenous model for growth in which technology only becomes the enabler and not the key driver or determinant. What i am pointing is that, we need not depend on FDI totally. When FDI came in, we were roaming the whole world and shouting about it. Now that these economies are under crises, they will take care of their home first, and may even exit from our country as we have seen in the case of FII’s exiting the stock market and leading to a sudden crash. We must have started our economy with 75 % dependence on domestic and 25 % on foreign fund generation besides a host of infrastructure & ground level measures. We need a ‘self reliant India growth model’ and not a USA – Europe dependent-driven growth model. Hope the policy makers will learn from the crises & take steps to correct it.
Now a day’s the most talked about line from the ruling politicians is, that India is fundamentally strong economy. Which ‘Fundamentals’ are they referring to ? Our consumer sentiment is low, stock markets have crashed, industrial production is low , inflation is high, uncertainty is looming over every corporate , retrenchment is happening , rupee is weak against the dollar, farmers that constitute 65-70 % of the population are committing suicides , IT & BPO industry is hit hard due to US –Europe recession, terrorism and lawlessness is rampant. I am still trying to get which fundaments appear to be strong !!! Is it the large suffering population that is being referred to ?
Coming to the most happening sector – The great Indian retail story : I see some retailers having burnt their fingers in metros , now are planning of moving to class II & III towns for the next cycle of growth. Let me express boldly, that this will be a big loss making proposition. In towns like Mumbai and Gurgaon, retailers are having a tough time, how come they will survive in smaller towns with more ‘service class’ & ‘Small time traders’ people. At least , bigger towns have industries and other corporates to support higher spending opportunities. Some learned Advisors have informed these retailers that 70 % of India lives in rural areas so rural India is a bigger market than urban India (calculating that rural India with USD 530 income per capita is three times the population of urban India with the per capita income of USD 1200). What an ‘unintelligent logic’. The 530 USD that the rural India earns is not even enough to spend on basics, unlike urbanites who have the basics already and can afford to spend on the new class of products which supports the modern retail formats. It is analogous to three boys of seven years marrying a girl of eighteen years (3 boys x 7 years = 21 Years, marriageable age!!!). Intelligent logic isn’t!!! That’s what our great retailers are trying to do . Only smart ones are Pantaloon and Wal-mart. Rest all are smart looking idiots !!!
Retailers must realise that they are making investments for 2012-15 market projections. The figures of these projections are not even validated. But the cash burnout is happening now. Imagine this , rentals going up by 5 % every year , salaries by 20-30 % , cash burnout for new openings , increasing offering –SKU’s, reducing margins to attract customers or wash off old inventory. However can a retailer survive ? Adding to this , move to class II towns!!!
Just to make a note that if in towns like Panvel in Navi Mumbai, the two supermarkets owned by Foodland have closed within a year due to opening of ‘MORE’ supermarkets, D’mart & Reliance Fresh stores, how can small kirana stores survive? If i don’t go wrong, even ‘More’ & Reliance will have to shut down in the times to come in the area or make perpetual losses . So the retail story in its current form is not a lasting one. But the lessons are to be learnt . One thing that has happened in India which is totally wrong is that, we have tried to CCP (cut, copy and paste) foreign retailers. But we have missed to note the most important point , that foreign retailers were pretty slow in the first ten years in their country. Even Mukesh Ambani made a strategic mistake; he announced 5 billion dollar investment in retail only to face the back lash from local traders. No one expected seasoned businesses houses to make such tall claims ....This gives us a clear feeling that Indians are unaware and unprepared for the hype that has been created by the media and neither are they guided by the realities . I would call Wal-Mart the smartest retailer in India. They have just done a retail tie up in India without using its brand name . So that the Indian partner has the expense & experience and Wal-mart has the learning’s. Moreover, their growth plans are practical. Just 15 stores now compared to 600 + stores of Reliance and Birla’s. What if the Ambani’s & Birla’s want to change the strategy or make changes backwards because of their learning’s?? It is easier to correct and make changes in 15 stores of Wal-Mart then 600+ stores of Reliance or Birla’s.
We must note:
85 % of the rural India does not have the power to consume very much at the prices that currently prevail in the market.
30 % of urban India constitutes 75 % of the GDP.
70 % of the rural India constitutes 23 % of GDP
According to the Central Statistical organization, in 2001, 48 % of the rural GDP was agricultural.
In 2001, the NDP contributors were: agriculture 46 % , industry 21 % and services 33 %.
If India needs to grow sustainably, we need to make a prudent choice between education, vocational training and SSI. Needless to mention that, India’s growth will be driven by creating more jobs in lowest rungs of the society. They will build the real consumption led growth for a ‘Shining India’. The earlier, the better.
India today is in a recession and we must accept the fact. By closing our eyes the problems will still remain. We must build growth models not based on dollars , stock markets , urban India but go in for holistic models of growth that suit the local conditions and requirements , are broad based for all sections of society and industry , and just don’t reflect isolated figures .
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Indian economy enters recession
India has already entered a recession . It is how we define it , how we see it and when we accept it. It is a matter of choice and nothing else. We must accept the harsh reality about the state of Indian economy. Industrial production has slowed down, unemployment is increasing, rather retrenchment is happening at a hectic pace, consumer sentiment is negative, stock markets are crashing and moreover, the government has put the economy on the ventilator by dong repo rate cuts etc.
All this clearly indicates that India has entered a phase of recession. The earliet we accept and start working , the better prepared we will be to survive the same
email me @: mail@rajendragupta.org cell: 09323109456 / 9867300045
All this clearly indicates that India has entered a phase of recession. The earliet we accept and start working , the better prepared we will be to survive the same
email me @: mail@rajendragupta.org cell: 09323109456 / 9867300045
Sunday, October 19, 2008
US Economy and India - Main Culprits
A lot of people have been saying various things on decoupling of the Indian economy and USA economy. Here is what we need to understand
1. When India choose to be a part of the global economy and shared the fruits of the so called globalization, how it can avoid sharing the spoils of globalization ???
2.Indian problem: First let us understand why India's problems started. A good 20 years back India started opting for being a part of the global economy. Some so called 'Learned Men like Man Mohan Singh , Montek singh and P.Chidambaram' started talking of a double digit growth for the Indian economy. The immediate results ; few 'sensible' businessmen and a few 'learned' journalists started talking about the future companies like infrastructure , communications , IT , Retail blah...blah blah.. Investments started coming from abroad, Finally the economy was liberalised as we call it . But it was actually 'exposed to external risks' and not 'liberalised' as you might see ahead . All companies wanted to strike immediate gold.
Investments started and competition heated up. Suddenly India became a heated topic of discussion. While the initial euphoria created , growth zoomed some of the industries and companies . Indian economy started shining on the stock exchange. Outsourcing grew, salaries of millions for freshers from IT was not a joke anymore. Valuations of company was in multiple of projected earnings ( what a stupid thing !!). All was like a castle being built in the sky..........too highhhhhhh.
Suddenly, retail competition came and real estate became 'Unreal estate', Freshers in call centers were getting 15-20000 Rs. per month, Credit card money came in as a new income and with that also came in recovery agents , NPA on credit cards increased. Youngsters started earning easily and splurging the money or buying a dream house at the 'ripe' age of 25. All looked too good to believe initially. Many believed that India had come of age ......after the so called 60 years of freedom.
Today, as we look back......Following lessons to learn.
All that unrealistic valuations are a thing of the past as they had no fundamentals . The million dollar salaries paid to achieve those fictitious market shares ( based on the 'crap & bull shit' reports presented by the 'great' global consulting companies )are no where in sight & so are the jobs. Credit cards defaults are really hit a high and is a vicious cycle which caught a lot of youngsters.
I don't think that the retail business will also be helpful to most of the people in the middle & long run. Just imaging that salaries go up by 20 % every year, rentals go up by 5 -10 % every year, product range goes up every year, marketing cost goes up due to enhanced competition , margins go down due to increased competition and to attract the customer on the pretext ' every day low prices or cheapest on earth' , plus there is a cash burnout for the 'fantastic' growth in the number of new stores . In such a scenario , you cannot expect the retail story to last long. Already many have used a word ' rationalize' the retail strategy . But the fact is, that it is not 'Rationalize' but 'realise' the erroneous path that the retailers had taken.
Losses are humongous.
Adding to the pain, was the sudden jump in the fuel prices, America's slow growth and an overall negative sentiment .
India's pain originates from the optimism of the so called 'double digit growth' and a 'Robust economy' as quoted often by the triumvurate of Manmohan singh, P.Chidambaram and Montek' They are the real culprits for the mess that we are facing today.............Rest time will tell.
Also , equally responsible are the 'irresponsible' negative sentiments aired by everyone who is getting a chance to show his face on the TV Channels. The only statements that resonates my ears is, 'The worst is yet to come'. May God punish those 'idiots'. They don't give us the guidance to avoid the same or the possible opportunities that we might lose !
Wait for my next blog . Rajendra Pratap Gupta
1. When India choose to be a part of the global economy and shared the fruits of the so called globalization, how it can avoid sharing the spoils of globalization ???
2.Indian problem: First let us understand why India's problems started. A good 20 years back India started opting for being a part of the global economy. Some so called 'Learned Men like Man Mohan Singh , Montek singh and P.Chidambaram' started talking of a double digit growth for the Indian economy. The immediate results ; few 'sensible' businessmen and a few 'learned' journalists started talking about the future companies like infrastructure , communications , IT , Retail blah...blah blah.. Investments started coming from abroad, Finally the economy was liberalised as we call it . But it was actually 'exposed to external risks' and not 'liberalised' as you might see ahead . All companies wanted to strike immediate gold.
Investments started and competition heated up. Suddenly India became a heated topic of discussion. While the initial euphoria created , growth zoomed some of the industries and companies . Indian economy started shining on the stock exchange. Outsourcing grew, salaries of millions for freshers from IT was not a joke anymore. Valuations of company was in multiple of projected earnings ( what a stupid thing !!). All was like a castle being built in the sky..........too highhhhhhh.
Suddenly, retail competition came and real estate became 'Unreal estate', Freshers in call centers were getting 15-20000 Rs. per month, Credit card money came in as a new income and with that also came in recovery agents , NPA on credit cards increased. Youngsters started earning easily and splurging the money or buying a dream house at the 'ripe' age of 25. All looked too good to believe initially. Many believed that India had come of age ......after the so called 60 years of freedom.
Today, as we look back......Following lessons to learn.
All that unrealistic valuations are a thing of the past as they had no fundamentals . The million dollar salaries paid to achieve those fictitious market shares ( based on the 'crap & bull shit' reports presented by the 'great' global consulting companies )are no where in sight & so are the jobs. Credit cards defaults are really hit a high and is a vicious cycle which caught a lot of youngsters.
I don't think that the retail business will also be helpful to most of the people in the middle & long run. Just imaging that salaries go up by 20 % every year, rentals go up by 5 -10 % every year, product range goes up every year, marketing cost goes up due to enhanced competition , margins go down due to increased competition and to attract the customer on the pretext ' every day low prices or cheapest on earth' , plus there is a cash burnout for the 'fantastic' growth in the number of new stores . In such a scenario , you cannot expect the retail story to last long. Already many have used a word ' rationalize' the retail strategy . But the fact is, that it is not 'Rationalize' but 'realise' the erroneous path that the retailers had taken.
Losses are humongous.
Adding to the pain, was the sudden jump in the fuel prices, America's slow growth and an overall negative sentiment .
India's pain originates from the optimism of the so called 'double digit growth' and a 'Robust economy' as quoted often by the triumvurate of Manmohan singh, P.Chidambaram and Montek' They are the real culprits for the mess that we are facing today.............Rest time will tell.
Also , equally responsible are the 'irresponsible' negative sentiments aired by everyone who is getting a chance to show his face on the TV Channels. The only statements that resonates my ears is, 'The worst is yet to come'. May God punish those 'idiots'. They don't give us the guidance to avoid the same or the possible opportunities that we might lose !
Wait for my next blog . Rajendra Pratap Gupta
China to be the next super power
Dear Friends,
We all have been reading that America is collapsing and that the America is coming to an end in its supermacy. Well , time will tell what will happen to America and why. I believe that America's problems are due to excessive greed of Americans and thier culture to 'Consume at all costs'. Where the end justified the means so far. Americans always earn from Monday till Friday and splurge on Saturday and Sunday.Savings is not a part of American Culture. What is happening to America was destined to happen.
I must say that China has the key to America's collapse. What the west did to east , the same might get reversed. Chinese , it is believed to have lend more than a trillion dollars to American Banks . If it demands the same now . Imagine what can happen !!!
So we might see China becoming the next super power. Let's wait and watch. Rajendra Pratap Gupta
We all have been reading that America is collapsing and that the America is coming to an end in its supermacy. Well , time will tell what will happen to America and why. I believe that America's problems are due to excessive greed of Americans and thier culture to 'Consume at all costs'. Where the end justified the means so far. Americans always earn from Monday till Friday and splurge on Saturday and Sunday.Savings is not a part of American Culture. What is happening to America was destined to happen.
I must say that China has the key to America's collapse. What the west did to east , the same might get reversed. Chinese , it is believed to have lend more than a trillion dollars to American Banks . If it demands the same now . Imagine what can happen !!!
So we might see China becoming the next super power. Let's wait and watch. Rajendra Pratap Gupta
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