Sunday, March 29, 2009

Recession - Solution to the Indian economic crises - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

India & Recession – Why & When

It is more than one and a half year that we have heard and read about recession , slowing economy, reduction in industrial output , high inflation , negative agricultural growth , voluntary cut in production , lay-offs , reduction in wages , shutting down of companies etc . Prime Minister and other ministers kept assuring that we are a decoupled economy with very ‘strong fundamentals’, and that India will not be affected. In the interim budget they did not give anything as ‘Stimulus’. Suddenly, when Standard and Poor down-graded our economy ratings to one level above ‘Junk status’. Overnight, the government announced a stimulus for the economy, and still keeps saying that, the economy will grow around 7 %. Personally, I am compelled to be optimistic, as I can’t afford to see my colleagues losing jobs, factories shutting down, people dying of hunger. A country with a billion populations fights a blame game. Government will finally put it on the global crises. But India was supposed to be a self reliant economy? Right? So are we saying we are beggars to the world and when the world goes belly up we will be reduced to what we are? Shame on the politicians who are liars of the highest order and distorting facts

There are five big questions that need answers from all of us and not just the government whom we have voted to power. These questions are related to the so called recession

1. Why it happened
2. Who failed us or who let us down
3. Where are we today
4. What is the solution
5. What we can do to prevent the same

Why it happened?

Congress ruled India for around 50 years .They gave us the infamous license raj, where it was difficult to produce without a license, available only to a select few. Outcome , politicians became rich , corporate houses became richer and the masses in India remained poor. When it came to voting, it was easy to ‘Influence’ and ‘Buy’ votes by offering ‘Daaru’ and ‘Sarees and cycles’. 70 % of the population lives in villages and they are the people who count when it comes to voting, and not people like you and me who read these blogs are merely 40 million in a population of over 1000 million?

In the 1990’s, our economy’s balance of payments situation became worse and Manmohan devaluated the currency twice and opened the economy to the foreign sector. After that, there was no looking back. Our immediate problem was solved but long term problems started. We started measuring our economic strength in the foreign exchange reserves in the country. These foreign investors also got into the stock market. Over the years, we got a very high Sensex- 21000. WOW!

As a result, Mukesh Ambani became the richest man in the world (albeit for a few days!!).

Just a few Indians who left the Indian shores for abroad and made it big ( V.S.Naipaul, Amartya Sen , Indira Nooyi , Arun Sarin etc..) or Arcelor , Tetley, Land Rover & Jaguar , or Corus acquisitions . These were merely aberrations. In India, where 16 % of the world populations reside, why do we not have 16 % of the top executives and 16 % of the top class firms in every sector? So these achievements were not a part of the Indian government’s plan or strategy. Clearly, these were a few aberrations and we arrogated them to India coming of an age. If you are asked about five top Indian names in the global corporate sector, you would find it difficult to reach the number. If you were asked to name five Indian fortune 500 companies, you would start looking at the wall. Is this what a land of billion minds should have produced? So we went wrong in our human resources management

We measured India with how many contracts Infosys or Wipro’s signed in Europe and India, how many call centers started serving US and European clients, and how many dollars got invested into India.

On the other hand , Ambani’s , Birla’s & Tata’s were looking at these ‘News’ and assuming that the entire India is growing fast . The reports that Indian government churns out is nothing but a bunch of information that government wants the public to know , so that the government remains in the good books of the public and makes it win the elections and give it another term.

While Manmohan had opened the economy, he did nothing for farmers or small scale industries or BPL people. The result, we created a huge disparity in the income generation and spread. This was the sowing of seeds for a long term economic failure that our economy is facing today. Ideally, 25 out of the 100 richest people should have been from India, 100 of the fortune 500 companies should have been from India and 50 % of all patents should have been from India. Our billion plus population is for a mere statistics. Actually, our effective population is not more than 150 million. Rest is mere numbers or rather they have been just treated as numbers. I recall a definition of a politician ‘One who promises to protect rich from the poor and poor from the rich on the pretext of extracting money from the rich and votes from both’

Who failed us ?

Government did not fail alone. Media, in my belief, which is the teacher of modern society failed by selling its ethics and focusing on yellow journalism. Most of the top journalists are known to enjoy privileges and selling their conscience to others and write what their ‘Actual employers’ pay.

Judiciary: I read a day before yesterday a judge having said that, they should not equate to politicians & judges should not be asked to disclose their assets. SHAME ON YOU MR. Judge. Hopeless is a charitable word to describe judiciary in India . All the pillars of democracy have failed as judiciary is corrupt to an extent of over 90 %. Can you imagine the rot when a judge issued the summons to the President of India, Dr.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam? What worse can you imagine? If the president can be a victim of this inefficient judiciary what can a common man expect? If the judges have any shame they must quit en masse! You are a bunch of corrupt and inefficient people on the tax payer’s money and you don’t want to disclose your assets? Why the hell you want to keep them secret? Tell me a reasonable cause

Could you not try cases related to political corruption on priority things would have been different. But these greedy judges are not worth trusting for any worthwhile things for a suo moto action. They just keep passing judgments that gives them publicity.

No one trusts the government; everyone fears the judiciary and enforcement agencies. In all, the system has failed to deliver. I am not commenting the education and healthcare system as they don’t exists in the country

In all, I believe that our education system & more importantly teachers, media and judiciary have failed and delivered a fatal blow to our democracy

Teachers should be blamed for not being able to inculcate values amongst the students

Where are we?

A country is as strong as its citizens. When more than 80 % of the people are struggling to earn a two meals a day even after 61 years of Independence, have we gone the right way?

We are today in midst of two serious crises. One is the economic crises and the other is political crises.

Economic crisis can further be divided into two.

First, the one that has resulted into wrong economic policies blindly focused on FDI inflow and on making India a body shopping country. Also that, Indian government did not focus on developing the agriculture, infrastructure, SME, Retail & research based education. This had created a ‘Big economic divide’. Our politicians did not realise that the capacity building that could have resulted on building these sectors could have catapulted India to a different growth trajectory in the last two decades.

Second is the one that has been due to FDI, stock markets and the so called retail revolution. This was limited to about 35 towns directly and indirectly this gave employment to a lot of rural migrants. Knowing well that, most of agricultural families also depend on the members that work in towns and send money back home. These people have been affected due to reality and retail sector that is slowing down. All these are having a cascading effect.

Most important : Every one , right from the Reserve Bank governor to PM says that the worst is yet to come but they don’t tell what is the worst and when it will come and what is the solution ? It is like an astrologer telling you that you will die. Everyone dies one day , so what big a deal to tell that ? One should be able to tell when and how will you die .

I believe that , We are actually nearing the mid of recession cycle, and we will come of it in another year and a half.

Political crises: For more than 50 years, our country has been ruled by Gandhi family – A family of Kashmiri Pandits. This is enough to understand their commitment.

Who took the Kashmir issue to UN? Jawaharlal Lal Nehru, and we blame Pakistan for internationalizing the issue? Learn history

Congress lead by Gandhi’s has created a vicious cycle. Even today, Sonia Gandhi is the Chairperson of UPA, constitutionally authorized to oversee the implementation of CMP. Why these dual centers of power? Ideally, the Prime Minister’s role should not have been decimated. Why in the first place this extra authority created? Gandhi’s love for power is not hidden and they will keep away anyone who comes in their way. Gandhi’s have never allowed anyone to be number one in the party or politics. Whether it was Sharad Pawar or anyone else. No matter what. Also, that they have paid the price for this? What the Gandhi family is doing is against the law of nature. Power is like sand being held in the fist. The more you tighten the fist, more the sand will flow out. I would not be shocked if the family suffers a few adversaries in the times to come. They have always paid the price for their misconduct and the country had paid more …………………..Till the country gets rid of this family in politics, nothing can change.

Also, every Indian citizen has failed by not being active in politics and just making politics a tea table and road side discussion item. It is such a serious issue and has been treated casually by the Indian population.

What is the solution?

Complex problems have simple solutions – Read my earlier blog – An open letter to the PM.

Economic crisis has a political solution and political crises have an Economic solution.

First thing that needs to be done is to cut interest and lending rates in one shot and not in installments. I have been telling our PM since last year that we don’t need ‘Baby steps’, we need firm and drastic measures

Secondly, we must announce massive investments in infrastructure, Education & Research and IT (Government should set at least 100,000 IT kiosks as Government’s touch points for public access). The work should be given to IT companies of small and medium scale to retain the young IT talent.

FDI In retail should be discouraged and stopped immediately. We need an Indian version of FDI – Finance from domestic institutions.

Agriculture should be given a big push with incentives for organic farming & cash crops. According to NSS (National sample survey), even if one works for a day in a field, he is a farmer!! Which inflates the number of farmers in the country?

Five sectors can relieve India of its miseries; Infrastructure, Agriculture, Education, Retail & IT. Fortunately, we are at a nascent stage in every major sector . Be it agriculture , SME, Retail , IT , Automobiles, industrial growth , urbanization etc . In the US , the problems are of plenty , saturation & wastage . We are just at the reverse . Whilst US might find it difficult to protect and grow , we can log on to a massive growth with the right initiatives . Infact, India and US are at the two extreme ends of the growth cycle. All sectors in India have a potential for phenomenal growth. The 800 million Indians have to be made earning class and a spending class, and this one thing will take India to a 10 % + growth for the next twenty five years . We have a long way to go . Right governance can help us . NREGA Is not the right solution for a long term growth


Where will money come from?

What do you do when your family gets into financial problems? You sell a part of your assets for temporary relief and buy them back or buy better things in the good times or when the financial condition improves

India needs to re-look at the ‘Navratnas’ and dilute the equity and follow a moderate privatization drive to raise money to invest in the five sectors mentioned above. This is the way India can come out of the recession faster and build an economy with 8-10 % GDP growth every year or more.

India’s parallel economy is much bigger than the economy of taxes ( Black money economy is for sure a lot bigger than our 1000 Bn USD economy ). This money needs to be brought back and invested . I am not at all mentioning the money hoarded in Swiss banks and other heavens. All this can solve India’s problems today evening. This is a must , if we want to build an economy based on solid Economic & Social foundation.

Lay-offs are one part of the problem what about the fresher’s who are struggling for jobs. We need to create more job opportunities. No one seems to be addressing the issue knowing well that, we will have more 10 crore people who will get hunting for jobs in the next 5 -10 years

Defence spending should be cut and the same be invested in infrastructure. The defence strategy should be re-looked and reworked

All tenders for house-keeping, parking stands, vendors in public places and railways etc………should be reserved for both educated and uneducated youth irrespective of caste but on financial background

We must have guidelines where we build economy on 40 % services, 50 % manufacturing and 10 % on global trade. We must never exceed exports more than 10 % of our GDP

Need driven services never go slow or out of business? Indian economy must be 'inward looking’ and should be build on essential services and these should not be imported. All the national demand should be met by domestic producers. Need driven sectors like agriculture , FMCG, Healthcare , textiles , processed food , Education , Oil and natural gas should be country centric and needs more thrust for explosive growth .

Any tender worth 500 Crores or more should not be allotted to bidders who have manufacturing outside India. This will increase capacity building within the country

Seeing that it is recession time, the EMI of housing and vehicle loans for people who have lost jobs should be adjusted for at least two years. If the loans of 65000 crore can be waived for an income class that does not pay income tax (farmers). Why not give a moratorium on payments for the income class that pays tax. The two years EMI that are deferred for payments should have the interest based on the PLR or at reduced rates.

Every Indian needs to spend 10 minutes a day for politics and community work – An hour a week. Go start a neighborhood-nation building programme to ensure good governance. Rest I will add in my next blog

There are three sources of growth for an economy, increase in capital, and increase in labour force, and improvement in productivity. We will have to address all three

There is a difference in Economic growth and economic development. Economic growth is purely GDP but economic development is a broader concept that includes not just GDP but also indicators like social justice , income distribution, political freedom, pollution , Equality of income …………GDP captures average national income , but do not reflect how that income is spent.. Even increase in aids and cancer incidences in the country will add to the GDP expenditure on health services , Also, calamity will lead to the increase in GDP due to increase in reconstruction activities.

Moreover, GDP growth rate is inadequate measure of growth as it is calculated largely on the basis of rate of growth of income of the upper 20-30 % of the population who receive disproportionately large share of income. It calculates only money transactions and leaves many important activities and social measures and conditions like adult literacy rate, life expectancy and HDI rank

We must change our economic measurement methods from Economic growth to economic development

India needs to re-look into the growth measurement model. We have a solution for economic crises. We need to act fast and grow faster. Rest in my next blog

Good luck

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Mobile:
India + 91 9323109456
Email: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
www.countryfirst.org
www.linkedin.com/in/rajendragupta

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Third World War is on - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Actual GDP growth around 4 % ?- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.

Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.

The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.

Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %

Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .

Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008

With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA's in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA's via defaults .

Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories

If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.

We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ...........

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
E-mail : rajendra.india@gmail.com

Sunday, March 8, 2009

UPA means Unfulfilled Promises & Agenda - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Broken Promises – UPA 2004-2009

Promise :
The UPA government will enact a model law to deal with communal violence and encourage each state to adopt that law to generate faith and confidence in minority communities
Performance : The government dropped the idea of enacting a model law meant for each state to adopt separately. Instead , in 2005, it introduced a bill that applied to all as it conferred overriding powers on the center to declare a riot –affected areas as ‘Communally disturbed’ and assume responsibility for restoring law and order . The bill was a non-starter.
The communal violence (Prevention , control and rehabilitation of victims) bill wasn’t passed as the government could not hammer out a consensus on such a departure from the existing federal arrangement .
Promise : Judicial reforms will be given fresh momentum:
Performance : Despite the growing incidence of corruption in the higher judiciary , the government failed to convert a bill pending since 2006 into a law providing for a statutory machinery for judicial accountability . The Judges ( inquiry) bill carried a little credibility as it restrained the existing in house procedure without allowing any outsider to have a say in the probe
Promise : The Lok Pal bill will be enacted into low
Performance : The government failed to come up with a bill even after its Administrative Reforms commission recommended in 2007 that the proposed Ombudsman on political corruption be given constitutional status and be called ‘Rashtriya Lokayukta’ instead of Lok Pal
Promise : The UPA will take lead in introducing legislation for one third reservation for women in the Vidhan Sabhas and Lok Sabha
Performance: All that the government did was to introduce a bill with much fanfare in the Rajya Sabha in May 2008. Although , most of the major parties ( Congress, BJP and the Left) are ostensibly in favour , the government never got around to putting it to vote in parliament )
Promise : Complete legal equality for women in all spheres will be made a practical reality, especially by removing discriminatory legislation and by enacting new legislation that gives women , for instance , equal rights of ownerships of assets like houses and land
Performance : Other than enacting the law against domestic violence ,which was promised separately in the CMP, the government did not come up with any bill related to this long winded commitment of moving towards gender equality in all respects
Promise : The UPA will bring constitutional amendment to ensure that democratic , autonomous and a professional functioning of cooperatives
Performance : Despite holding elaborate consultations , the government failed to reach the stage of introducing a bill to amend the constitution
Promise: Labour laws other than the industrial Disputes Act , that created an inspector Raj will be re-examined and procedures harmonised and streamlined .
Performance : Thanks to pressure from the left for most of its tenure , the government did not dare tinker with the inspector Raj prevailing in labour laws.
Courtesy: Times of India , March 08, 2009.
For a detailed Congress Score Card 2004-2009. Please check the earlier Blog wherein , I have quoted the congress manifesto of 2004 verbatim along with failure to deliver on the promises .

Friday, March 6, 2009

An appeal to teachers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Dear Teachers,

Most of you are busy conducting exams . After this , you will get busy evaluating answer scripts. Here is what i need to appeal to you. As most of you will remain untouched from these hard economic times , as you belong to government run schools and colleges. But your students have a multiple problems, that i must apprise you. Most of your students are depressed with poor job prospects after education or their long term future prospects , Besides , they are also facing problems in case their family member has been fired from the job recently or has taken a pay cut or the family business is passing through trying times .

Appeal to you all is , that please be liberal in evaluating the answer scripts unless the answers have no relevance . Please do not add more to students problems . Try and boost their morale .

Hope this appeal does not fall on deaf ears

Thanks for your kind consideration.

mail@rajendragupta.org

Rajendra Pratap GuptaMobile:India + 91 9323109456

Growth a big issue - Needs a radical change - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.
Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.
The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.
Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %
Does not signal good for future . Calls for a radical change

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Youth and Women hold the key for success - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Youth, Women, Minorities & Regional parties hold the key to success.

In the last twenty five years, the electoral dynamics has changed. It is easier to understand and a challenge to manage. One who can manage will form the government at the center.

Let’s have a look:

According to 2009 electoral rolls, women are in majority in six states Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Poducherry.

· Andhra has 2.86 crore women compared to 2.80 crore men

· Kerala has 1.11 crore women compared to 1.03 crore men

· Manipur has 8.97 lac women compared to8.29 lac men

· Poducherry has 3.91 Lac women compared to 3.63 lac men

· Tamilnadu , Daman , Diu had more registered women than men

Also we must carefully understand the implications of these statistics :

· 49.1 % was the percentage of votes that congress got in 1984 elections, in which it won 404 seats.
· 48.7 % was the percentage of both the congress and BJP combined in 2004 elections.
· 477 is the number of seats that six national parties got in the 10th Lok Sabha elections in 1991
· 51 is the number of seats that state and regional parties got in 1991 . In 2004, they got 154 seats.
· BSP increased the number of seats from 5 to 14 in 1998-2004, increasing its percentage vote from 4.63 to 5.33%
· SP increased its seats from 20-36 from 1998-2004 & decreased its percentage vote from 4.93 to 4.32
· RJD increased its seats from 20-24 between 1998-2004 and the percentage vote decreased from 4.93 % to 2.41 %
· DMK increased its seats from 6 to 16 between 1998 till 2004. And the percentage vote increased from 1.44 o 1.81 %
· BJP had a 1.6 % vote loss costing the party as many as 44 seats in 2004
· In the last election Congress got about 26 % seats and BJP got about 22.16 % votes
· Muslim form more than 30 % of the electorate in 42 of the 543 seats
· In 1998 Lok Sabha polls only 7 % of the muslims voted the BSP and 61 % for SP. But in 2007 assembly polls , 32 percent voted for the BSP and 40 % for SP.

Youth :

· There are 34.8 crore youth in the age group of 15-34 years .
· Of these, about 10 crore are in the 15-19 years of age . Of these , 7 crore are rural and 3 crore are urban .
· Of the urban youth , more than one crore are living in large cosmopolitan towns and the more than one crore are living in small towns less than one lakh.
· Of the 3 crore urban youths , only 1.3 crore youths have completed their matriculation or higher secondary .
· Another 24.8 Crore youth are in the economically active age group of 20-34 years.
· Amongst these 7.6 crore are in urban areas , more than a third of them in small towns of less than one lakh.
· Only 3.6 crore of the 7.6 crore have studied till matriculation or above.
· And there are only 1.3 crore graduates . If we count total number of young graduates ( Urban & Rural ). It will add up to 2 crore.


If the party can understand the evolving electoral dynamics & worsening economic scenario coupled with elections just 45 days ahead & has a carefully evolved high noise level strategy. Victory is a foregone conclusion

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
mail@rajendragupta.org
Mob: +91-9323109456

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

What next ? Rajendra Pratap Gupta

50 years of Congress Misrule : Decline of India as a super power - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Congress has ruled this nation for more than fifty years. Let’s examine what it did to this nation ?

In the last fifty years , the congress leaders have contributed immensely to deteriorating the economy and suppressing the rights of the common man by denying him the right education and running the economy on the ‘Self serving’ license raj. It was only in the 1990’s that the congress policies led India towards Bankruptcy, and under the instructions of the World Bank , Congress had to liberalise the economy.  We should not forget that as a single party running the nation for more than 50 years, it did not let the common man to get proper education , as ‘The Common Man’ would have protested for change, and this, the shrewd leaders in congress never wanted . BJP was the first government that started the “Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan” to bring about the change ! Population under the congress misrule has just remained a mere statistics and a vote bank to be used during elections and abused thereafter. Let us also not forget that , congress due to its ‘Single family rule’ got divided into many parts and no one knows which is the original congress and still they talk of unity ? There is a Congress (i) , Congress Nationalist Party  etc . Congress has followed only one game in the name of government , prepare the nation to take on the next Gandhi inheritor no matter what . Respect for talent and merit has never been a norm in the congress party . The party that cannot practice democracy at home , how can it practice Democracy in the party, leave alone democracy in the nation.  Respect for democracy and talent in congress is a cruel joke . Congress is nothing but the rule of Gandhi family .  

Below is an ‘Eye Opener’ on what Congress’s contributed to this nation :

A Failed Judiciary :

 

On Feb 6, 2009, the Supreme court said that , the Criminal justice system has collapsed – Making the chilling observation, which to many only confirmed the widely held perception of the erosion of the system, a Bench comprising Justices B N Agrawal, G S Singhvi and Aftab Alam also said that the lower judiciary had decayed. "The courts of magistrate and munsif have ceased to be an option for the common man," the Bench said and compared the lower courts to ill-equipped and ill-staffed public health centres (PHCs) in rural areas.

Only those people go there who have no other option," said the Bench as an apparent indicator of the low measure of public faith in these courts, which are the first points of dispute settlement for the masses.

While the last Election manifesto of congress in 2004 quoted ‘  Immediate measures will be taken to drastically cut the delays in courts, particularly in the high courts and in lower levels of the judiciary’.

 

Central Bureau of Investigations : “Only God can save the situation”.

 

On Tuesday 11th Feb , 2009, the Supreme Court  said the CBI was acting at the behest of the law ministry while investigating the disproportionate assets case against SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family members. An exasperated Bench said, “Only God can save the situation”.

“You are acting at the behest of the law ministry. You are not acting on your own,” said the bench comprising Justice Altamas Kabir and Justice Cyriac Joseph ‘

 

Ironically, the last election manifesto of congress quoted ‘ An administrative reforms commission will be established to prepare a detailed blueprint for revamping the public administration  system completely so as to make it more performance oriented and accountable’.

 

Divided Election Commission : Fading hopes !!

 

The Chief Election Commissioner's recommendation for removal of Election Commissioner , Navin Chawla ahead of the general elections brings to the fore the differences among the three-member body which has often been marred by clashes over crucial decisions. This is the second pillar after the Judiciary that safe guards the democracy . Under the current Congress rule ,The Election commissions decisions cannot be trusted anymore . Apparently , looks like, that the system has lost its credibility . Whereas , the Election Manifesto of Congress quoted ‘ Congress is deeply committed to electoral reforms’.

 

 Congress is not in favour of Aam Aadmi  ??? Poor accountability on spending :

 

The CAG( Comptroller and auditor general )  report released on 20th February 2009 said that the centre’s Aam Aaadmi Bill was highly inflated. According to CAG, the funds meant for social and infrastructure development were diverted to celebrations and giving aid to NGO’s and other expenditure rather than creating infrastructure .

 

Remember Rajiv Gandhi saying , out of every rupee meant for the poor only fifteen paisa reaches the common man. This is what the leader of party said , whose family ruled this nation as its fiefdom since the very independence !

 

Congress has failed to act against terrorism – We are living at the mercy of the terrorists.

 

The less we talk the better. This government has failed utterly against terror . We had all kinds of attacks at all the places – Air , Land & Sea. It is not just Kashmir , it is all across . We are totally at the mercy of the terrorists . Congress has let the nation down badly.

 

Financially , our economy is at its worst :

 

The fiscal deficit for 2009 would be in around 11 % .  The Fiscal deficit budgeted at 2.5 % of the GDP this year , will end up at 6 % , to which should be added another 1.5 % of the GDP for the off-budget items like dues on oil and fertilizers companies . Throw in another 3.5 % of GDP of state government deficits , and India will have a consolidated fiscal deficit of 11 % in 2008-9. Remember, during the BJP led NDA , Revenue deficit never crossed 4.5 %.  Congress took over from BJP, an Indian Economy growing at 8 % every year and after five years. We are just a step away from being rated as a ‘Junk status’ under the congress policies and misrule.

 

Congress regime has seem unchecked inflation . Even we are not sure whether the low inflation numbers we see today are correct or cooked up . Economy is sliding day by day.  Companies are getting into voluntary shut downs, expected job losses till March 09 are expected to cross one crore.  Last Election manifesto of Congress reiterated “its firm commitment to eliminating the revenue deficit of the central government in five years time” & actually gave India the worst ever revenue deficit since its independence .   According to S&P’s ( Standard & Poor’s ratings ) , India’s fiscal position is unsustainable in the middle term, reduced the outlook on long term debt from stable to negative for four government entities , and , in turn, the UPA government .  In the 3rd Week of Feb’ 09, even Fitch ratings  had called India’s finances in to question. 

 

Urban Poverty :

 

According to the 'India: Urban Poverty Report, 2009',The poverty in cities is not an overflow of the poverty in villages but has happened because of the faulty nature of urbanisation in India, says the country's first report on Urban Poverty released today. According to the study, an estimated 23.7 per cent of the urban population was living in slums amid squalor, crime, disease and tension, but not all slum dwellers exist below the poverty line.

They have been marginalised because of the poor city planning and poorer urban land management and legislation.

The urban poverty was not about only nutritional deficiency but deficiencies in the basic needs of housing, water, sanitation, medical care, education, and opportunity for income generation. As many 81 million or 25.7 per cent people(2004-05) subsist in urban areas on incomes that are below the poverty line. Eighty per cent of their meagre income goes towards paying for food and energy, leaving very little for meeting the cost of living in an increasingly monetised society

Congress Election Manifesto of 2004 quoted ‘ The Congress is conscious of the havoc that corruption at all levels adds to the harassment of the common man’.

In fact, fifty years of Congress misrule is a naked , sordid & ruthless saga of Gareebi , Bhrashtachaar and Aantakwaad and not the Roti , Kapda aur Makaan that has just remained a slogan after 50 years of rule. Congress is all words and no substance !

Overall , Congress led UPA is a failure on all fronts.  Giving it even five hours is against the interest of the nation and the common man . All including , wise men in Congress will agree to this along with the fact that, Congress only talks of sacrifices by the Gandhi family and does not even acknowledge that others have also contributed to this nation. Is it that except the Gandhi family, no one has sacrificed in Congress ? The last manifesto of congress read ‘ It is the congress leaders like Gandhi ji, Indiraji and Rajive ji who have sacrificed their lives in the services of the country’ . 

Fifty years of misrule has certainly achieved one thing; ethics has been eroded in politics and no one trusts a politician. BJP is committed to change this by you participating actively in bringing about this change and creating an India for the common man

Decline of India as a Global power :

Source : Angus Maddison, The World Economy, Paris , OECD, 2001, P.261, Table B-18

The Changing share of world GDP 1600-1870 ( In million 1990 International $ )

Geography

1600 A.D.

%  of total

1700 A.D.

% of total

1870 A.D.

% of total

Britain

6007

1.80

10709

2.88

100179

9.10

Western Europe

65955

20.02

83395

22.46

370223

33.61

China

96000

29.14

82800

22.30

189740

17.23

India

74250

22.54

90750

24.44

134882

12.25

World

329417

 

371369

 

1101369

 

 

This chart proves that India was a world leader in trade after China with 22.54 % of the world GDP.  East India company changed the global equations and reduced it to 12.25 % . Congress did the rest . Today , we are less than 2 % .

 What next  ? It depends on what you and I will do next ?

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President

Country First

Email: President@countryfirst.org

                Rajendra.india@gmail.com

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Truth and nothing else - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Worst for the economy is over – Senior Congress Minister – Fooling Indians to vote ???

On 28th December 2008, I had written on this blog, that the GDP growth will be less than 6 % , I had also given the reasons as to why it would fall below 6 % for sure, when the government was firm that GDP growth would be 7.1 %. The fact is out now , and our GDP has grown as low as 5.3 % in the Q3, 2008.

We will have lacs of suicides from job losers ! Earlier it was the farmers , now it will corporate people and workers who will commit suicides or commit crimes or suffer a nervous break-down. Why are we sleeping now . We just have 45 days – Please check the congress score card on my blog , They are a bunch of inefficient & dishonest people ! Can we entrust them our nation ?

As per the latest data ,

· India had an external debt of $221.3 Bn at the end of June 2008, 20 % of it is the short term debt, this will be hurt badly due to weak rupee .

· NRI deposits declined by as much as 1.1 Bn USD at the end of June 2008 compared to end – March 08 level.

· India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by 62.35 Billion dollars to 249.53 Bn USD as on Feb 20, 2008 from 311.88 Billion as on April 4, 2008.

· Agriculture is reporting negative growth at -2.2 % in Q3 , 2008,

· Exports have plummeted and people in export oriented companies are being fired every minute

· Industrial production is at a record low

· Fiscal deficit is highest since independence

· Sensex is at a record low in the last 40 months , Investors have lost more than 2/3rd of their investments

· Real estate sector is facing worst crisis ever

· GDP fell to 5.3 % in Q3 , 2008

· Rupee is weakest at about Rs.52 to a dollar

· Tax collections and revenue earners for government are dipping every day due to the above mentioned factors

Is what we call an economy of strong fundamentals ? When US , Europe and Japan sank into recession, immediately our growth story withered away, and we had been fooled to believe that India had strong fundamentals and we will not be affected . Is this not severe recession ?

At the top of all this , our learned writer of the book ‘India’s Century’ & also our Union trade and commerce Minister , Kamalnath had said just 3 days ago, that the ‘Worst time for the economy is over’. And just three days after the rupee is about 52 to the dollar and the sensex is on its 40 months low !! How clueless is our Union Minister ? Do we give such people to run our trade and commerce for the next five years ? If his words cannot last even a week , how come he writes a book on India’s century ?

We are into an unprecedented crisis , if we let congress win , I am sure that some of us will not even survive to vote !!

Here is the Congress Scorecard . This has the verbatim statements of what Congress wrote in its last manifesto and next to it is what it did for its promises .


Congress Scorecard 2004-2009

No.

Key Result areas

What Congress promised in the last Manifesto

What it did

1

Agriculture

Annual growth of less than 4-4.5 % is unacceptable

Agriculture Growth in Q3 2008-09 is Negative -2.2 %

2

Intensive agricultural development program will be started in 100 districts

???

3

Farmers insurance

Farm insurance schemes for both crops and cattle will be implemented

???

4

Employment

Accelerate employment Generation

More than 2 crores jobs lost till March 2009

5

Fiscal Policy

Committed to eliminating the revenue deficit of central govt. By 2009

In Feb 09, the revenue deficit reached at 11.4 % , highest ever since Independence

6

Growth

Growth of below 10 % in industry is simply unacceptable

Growth figures in Q3 2008-09 was around 5.3 %

7

Education

To spend 6 % of GDP and set up Education Development Finance Corporation

???

8

Khadi & Village Industries

to be modernised

???

9

Block level

Establish at least one industrial training institute in each development block of the country

???

10

Annual Rozgar report

To be released every 1st May

???

11

A great thrust on Exports of textiles , handicrafts , Gems & Jewelry , leather , software & engineering

Painful slowdown in all this sectors and the government is clueless on what to do ? Units are shutting down and much more than one crore people are expected to be out of Job by March end in these sectors

12

Farm labour

Ensure the fullest implementation of wage laws for farm labour

???

13

Landless

Congress to Redouble its efforts to distribute surplus productive land to the landless

???

14

Women

Congress pledges to press for the constitutional amendment to reserve one third of seats in Lok Sabhi and in Vidhan Sabha’s for Women

???

15

Healthcare

Congress will raise public spending on healthcare to at least 2-3 % of GDP

???

16

Reservation

Congress pledges to extend reservations for the economically deprived persons belonging to communities that are at present not entitled to such reservations

???

17

Weavers & artisans

New middle level technical institutions will be started in places where for example weavers and artisans are concentrated

???

18

Food scarce areas

Grain Banks in chronically food scarce areas will be started

???

19

Girl Child

Nutrition program for the girl child particularly will be expanded on a significant scale

???

20

Organised , Informal & Unorganised sector

Urban Poor

Every initiative will must and will be taken to expand the proportion of employment in the organised sector, congress will ensure the well being and welfare of all workers in unorganized sector

Only job losses have been reported in the last few years in all these sectors and Congress has remained a silent spectator

21

Congress to establish a National Commission to examine problems facing enterprises operating in the unorganised sector

???

22

A national fund will be created

???

23

A single , simplified law will be enacted to set out the obligations of these enterprises to labour and for safety

???

24

Congress will create legal space in towns and cities for hawkers , vendors , food sellers etc......so that they are spared the risk of extortion , eviction, confiscation and harassment

???

25

Social housing schemes will be launched to meet the needs of the urban poor

???

26

Security of the nation

Congress will strengthen the intelligence network

Most gruesome 19 attacks . A records of 63 blasts in 35 days . Assam, Oct 30, 2008 – 63 people killed, Imphal , Oct 21, 2008 – 17 people killed , New Delhi, Sept 13 , 2008- 26 people killed, New Delhi, Sept 27, 2008 – Three people Killed , Ahmedabad , July 26, 2008 – 57 people killed after 20 bombs went off in two hours, Bangalore , July 25, 2008 – One person killed, Jaipur, May 13, 2008 – 68 people killed in serial bombings, Faizabad , November 23, 2007- 15 people killed in Court bombings, Hyderabad , August 25,2007- 42 people killed in two blasts, Samjhauta Express , Feb 19, 2007- 66 people killed , Malegaon , Sept 8, 2006- 40 people killed in two blasts, Mumbai , July 11, 2006 – 209 people killed in seven blasts on sub-urban trains – the lifeline of Mumbai , Varanasi , March 7, 2006- 21 people killed in three blasts including one at the temple and another at the crowded railway station, New Delhi, Oct 29, 2005- 61 people killed in three blasts on the eve of Diwali

27

Judiciary

Immediate measures will be taken to drastically cut delays in courts , particularly in the high court’s and in lower levels of judiciary

On Feb 6, 2009, the Supreme court said that , the Criminal justice system has collapsed .. A Bench comprising Justices B N Agrawal, G S Singhvi and Aftab Alam also said that the lower judiciary had decayed. "The courts of magistrate and munsif have ceased to be an option for the common man," the Bench said and compared the lower courts to ill-equipped and ill-staffed public health centres (PHCs) in rural areas

28

Manufacturing Sector

Congress will establish a National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council

???

29

Yearly report card – Jan Dastavejh

Every year on October 2nd , the congress pledges to present to the people of India a Jan Dastavejh on the progress of the implementation of the manifesto

???

All Words

No Substance