Address at the award function for Dhanvantri awards

Friends .

Thanks a lot for bestowing me this honour and giving me an opportunity to visit this historic city

I am thankful to the jury for having selected me for this honour though I am not a doctor !

It is a real pleasure to be speaking with such an audience in the land of famed rulers like Chandragupta I, Vikramaditya , Ashoka & Poet Kalidasa.

“The town fallen from heaven to bring heaven on earth" wrote Kalidasa about Ujjain. It is a twin blessing for me , first to visit Ujjain and second to get the award !!

I have been asked by the organizers to speak for a few minutes on

• India’s healthcare system versus the World Healthcare system & the future of the India’s healthcare system
• Retail Chains in India
• Indian Economy and its future

These three topics are loaded ones , and I need to dwell briefly on the same

Firstly,

Healthcare in India & the way forward : All across the world the healthcare systems have failed . In India, we are placed at a point in time when we can chose what we want, as we are about to build our healthcare system. We are here not by design but by default ! I have always said , we must not import failures !! Recently , i have sent out a detailed note to the Prime Minister and our Health minister on healthcare reforms . Imagine , we do not even have a epidemiological survey in India , so how can we build a healthcare policy without it ? We need to build more preventive care then tertiary care , unfortunately , we are doing the reverse . NRHM & NUHM can spend a lot of money but these adhoc schemes cannot build a lasting and a result oriented healthcare system

Health Insurance : People are very gung ho about Health insurance , we need to check if this is the right model for India !!! Government run blanket insurance schemes make people irresponsible and careless and the systems go bankrupt , this is what the failures in USA & Europe prove. Taking cue from this, India must re-look into the entire insurance business

Technology is advancing fast and becoming cheaper day by day and this must be used extensively at the PHC’s and PHC should become Panchayat Health centres with basic telemedicine facilities . India is the youngest nation with an average age around 26.5 years. If we don’t focus on healthy diet , fitness & chronic care , our economy will collapse due to exorbitant healthcare costs and an ailing and non-productive population over the next 30 years .

Retail chains in India .

Retail sector is the key to India’s economy. We have more than 12 million retailers and many times the multiple of 12 million earn their livelihood from this sector . Whilst the media opened the eyes and exposed us to the western world, we have got carried away and are trying the cut , copy and paste model to imitate what happens in other parts of the world , without even caring for the basics !!

I will limit my references here to the pharmacy chains here, though most of what I say applies to other general retailers as well.

Pharmacy trade has to be looked upon from three players perspective :

Independent retailers , organized chains and AIOCD Venture for retail

We have about 20 + retail pharmacy chains and trust me , all are having serious issues with scaling up and profits !! This leaves us with one learning , the current organized pharmacy model does not seem to be working .

Ironically, even AIOCD got carried away with organised retail . Though my understanding is that it will never be successful in getting into total pharma distribution , retail and market research; as their history shows them as a cartel extensively into boycotting and arm twisting pharma companies to accede to their demands. With such a history , and with same people at the helm of affairs , think what will happen if the pharmaceutical companies become totally dependent on AIOCD for their market research reports & distribution !! Also that, AIOCD is looking at private labels , manufacturing , retail chain companies , distribution and market research . Last thing for them to do is to appoint their health minister !! Result is a foregone conclusion

Retail chains have their own set of problems and will take time before they get the ‘right’ funding & the right people which has become the biggest bottle neck for the success of the pharmacy chains in India . If this continues , the organized pharmacy retail will be eaten up the MNC chains that will find a way in India in the next 3 years . Also that, the pharmacy chains are not united to present themselves as one voice and this is telling its tale with AIOCD tightening its noose around them . Overall , the next three years will see more deaths in the trade . Already a few players have started showing up symptoms of Asphyxia

Independent retailers : Two places where no one can defeat them is a sense of ownership and cost advantage !! Most of the organized retailers are losing money in monitoring their business with its supervisory infrastructure . Where you need to gear up is customer record keeping and satisfaction . Add adequate stocks and join hands to do good marketing by adapting to latest standards. Most importantly, please look at offering basic health checks for the part of the population you service . In the next two years , I expect pharmacies in India offering chronic care programs . This is what the pharmacies should be doing in India . Think small , act fast and aim big !!

Focus on basic cold chain infrastructure , join hands and approach the government for putting you in ‘Essential Population health services’ and offer you discounted electricity charges and lower taxes so that you could have the standards to maintain efficacy of medicines or else , ask the government to increase margins to 25 % for retail and 12 % for distribution. We have enormous potential for employment and pharmacies can bring about change that can make the healthcare system more result oriented as it the first and the last point of care for the common man . I see a bright future for small & independent retailers and big MNC chains !!

Indian Economy & Future :

We must not forget that India is a great country and we call ourselves a ‘developing country’. Now we need to change from being identified just as a ‘developing country’ ! We have much more than our economy for the world . The World cannot ignore our contribution to science , spirituality and peace . Ironically, our lack of public activism has given us a self seeking political leadership that lacks original ideas and for years, they leaned on Russia and then USA and in all probability , will lean on China in the next decade. We are trying to copy models from abroad . Even most of our Prime Minister’s advisors come from Abroad or foreign universities . Trust me , we are importing failures . China built SEZ’s , we tried to do the same ..................why , no one asks how many people have exited the SEZ business !! What kind of tax loss will the government have when we are currently under a huge budget deficit by promoting SEZ’s !!

We are living in a country with enormous potential . Just check that 1/6th of India is under naxals , 4/6th lives under less than Rs. 80 a day. So effectively , what you read in the news as growing India is just 1/6th of India . We have started measuring our growth with the growth of the sensex . If the sensex grows , we see growth . Unfortunately , not even 1 % of the population trades in shares . Ground situation is that we have a very high inflation , lawlessness and insecurity, and we push more poor people below the poverty line due to healthcare costs and price rise than we push above the poverty line every year

Go and check a crowded general compartment in Indian railways . People are seated in toilets to reach their destination. Looks like a scene of partition days . Why do we witness such a scene after more than 60 years of Independence ? Can railways not increase the coaches or trains ? Will this not make the lives of a common man better and earn more revenue for the government & add to the development of this nation ?

A few days back there was a hue and cry on Shashi Tharoor and S.M.Krishna staying in five stars hotels. Government announced an austerity drive. This week , government passed a bill allowing ministers to travel with families and relatives 48 times a year !!! Don’t forget , government’s money is not someone else’s , it is our money and we are letting all this happen with our eyes open and mouths closed. A time to get into action . But the government is least concerned as we are . We only speak , government also speaks; when we will act , government will also act! Government mirrors its citizens in actions

Finally , I must say that the government must focus on Agriculture , industrial production and SME’s for making India a progressive nation . All industries can fail but not agriculture & industries into daily needs

Lastly, i must touch the topic all the major nations for fighting for – Climate change

We should carefully commit to emission cuts keeping in view that we are far from industrialized . India must focus on emission per capita rather than ‘committing percentage cuts’. If you see the rough emission trends of the global emissions , India emits about 5%, Europe about 11 %, China about 15 % and USA about 20 %. Compare the population size and emissions and then decide . At maximum , we must stick to standards for emission norms and not commit summary cuts , even self imposed .

Even the World Bank’s study has contradicted the governments claims made that India can achieve an emission intensity target of 20-25 % below 2005 levels by 2020. It wonders how it is possible when the capital costs in setting up cleaner grid power could rise by 15-25 %. Though capital cost is only one of the several cost factors . Government’s claim was based on the home work done by the planning commission .

With this , i must thank you for patiently hearing me and enjoy the speakers ahead

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

India needs major healthcare reforms - Rajenda Pratap Gupta

Dated: November 23rd, 2009 Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President

Dr. Manmohan Singh
Hon’ble Prime Minister
Government of India
7, Race Course, New Delhi-110001 Registered Speed Post / E-Mail

Shri.Ghulam Nabi Azad
Hon’ble Health Minister
Government of India
Nirman Bhavan, New Delhi -110011


Reference: Healthcare reforms – A detailed agenda for Population Health Improvement

Dear Dr.Singh & Shri Azad ji,

This needs your esteem, kind and personal attention. I am sending a detailed note on what India needs to do to build an effective healthcare system. Over the last 62 years , we have increased the life expectancy by 26 years , reduced the infant mortality and morbidity significantly, eradicated Small pox and Guinea worm and almost eradicated polio and Leprosy.

The government of India has taken up a smart fight against HIV, T.B. , Tobacco. The launch of massive programmes like NRHM & NUHM by the government & the ban on smoking in public places is a proof of the fact that, Indian government is committed to the healthcare of its population. I believe that the healthy population is a prerequisite for an economically vibrant & a healthy nation .

At this juncture, with such a proactive government, I must bring to your kind notice a detailed note on how to transform the healthcare system of the nation. To start with, healthcare has to become the priority sector for the government of India. The Indian healthcare system must have a broader scope and a bigger purpose!

Firstly, let me apprise you of the fact that, higher spending does not mean better healthcare. We have the case of America where 17 % of the GDP goes on healthcare. Still 77 % of Americans have at least one chronic disease, 1 out of 2 Americans have a chronic disease and 7/10 people die of chronic diseases. Despite such a high spending, according to WHO, US Healthcare system ranks 37th amongst nations, at par with Serbia; 31st in life expectancy and 40th in child mortality, worse than Cuba and Croatia . So we must not pursue wrong goal of just doubling the healthcare spends as a percentage of GDP. We need a system that is outcome driven and not that is expense driven !!

Even the French Healthcare system which was ranked as the best by WHO in 2000 is losing USD 28124 every minute and is expected to go bankrupt by 2019.



Taking into consideration the global examples in healthcare , where most of the healthcare systems have failed , India is fortunately better placed. As developed regions like USA & Europe are struggling to correct their system backwards, India is just starting to build its healthcare system. We must embed strong fundamentals in our healthcare system. Though India is better placed not by design but by default and faulty policies over the last six decades, we must use this opportunity to build in our indigenous healthcare system and not import failures by copying anything from abroad .

Let me draw your attention to a few important observations of mine regarding the healthcare system:

Payer model: India has the right payer model , where the user pays. This makes the user as the ‘gatekeeper’ in the healthcare system. The global experience shows that, whenever there is a blanket cover for free healthcare, it is likely to be misused, over used and prone to fraud. Global examples have proven that, whenever healthcare is free, systems collapse. So I must request the policy makers never to change this basic fundamental of the healthcare system, though you must provide free healthcare to BPL families.

Preventive care & Recession: My belief is that healthcare was also one of the main reasons why America faced recession. In 2008, U.S. employers paid an average of USD 9144 per employee for healthcare insurance. Over the last few years, increasing healthcare costs have forced American companies to ship jobs overseas as this presented significant cost savings. Imagine that a computer sold in U.S. was produced in China. So the entire process of building a computer created job and income for Chinese but it was sold in the U.S? So while U.S. kept spending on buying products, U.S. lost its earning & income creation opportunities to China. For each product U.S. citizens purchased, salaries and income moved to China for producing such products. No wonder, China became the biggest lender to America!! American recession was in the making for the last couple of years because of the healthcare costs going up.

Why healthcare costs went up in America? In 1970 preventive medicine specialists represented 2.3 % of the physician work force and by 2002, the preventive medicine specialists were down to 0.8 %. America did not take care of prevention, and today it is home to a population that is more ill than healthy and so is the economy. American economy is a mirror image of its healthcare system. U.S. spent USD 700 billion on the troubled assets relief program (TARP) & USD 568.4 billion on fighting chronic diseases in Medicare and Medicaid. India must learn from USA on the management of chronic diseases early on. We need to build a strong preventive care in the Indian healthcare system.

India is a young nation with more than 60 % of its population below 40 years in age but, in the next thirty years; we will become an aged nation. We will grow ‘Older’ before we grow ‘Wealthier’. Moreover, with the rising incidence of chronic diseases, we are heading towards a problem where even after spending 25 % of our GDP on healthcare, we will never be able to salvage our healthcare system.

It is high time we converted our slogan from Food, Clothing and Shelter to: Food, Clothing and Healthcare. Health care needs to become the fundamental right of every Indian



Disease burden in India: India has to first asses the health burden in India. The figures released by the top consulting firms are not reliable given the wide disparities. Let me give you a glimpse of the ‘potential’ disease burden in India.

A. According to WHO, India has 14 % of its population suffering from Arthritis. This takes the Arthritis patients to approximately 140 million
B. According to WHO, India has 10 % of its population suffering from Hypertension. This takes the Hypertension patients to 100 million
C. According to the International Diabetes Federation , approximately 5 % of the Indian population suffers from Diabetes i.e. 50 million
D. India has at least 40 million CVD patients
E. Cancer patients in India are about 2.5 million
F. Elderly people in India are about 150 million

So, by any conservative estimates, we have about more than 400 million patients suffering from one or more chronic disease.

ABCDE of Indian healthcare system . I coined this Acronym , where A stands for Arthritis , B – Blood Pressure , C- Cardiac diseases & Cancer, D- Diabetes , E – Epilepsy or Elderly. My belief is that the prevalence of chronic diseases is such that today every family if India has one or more members of either of ABCDE .

Due to out of pocket spending on health, about 40 million people go below the poverty line every year.

If we see the population dynamics & demographics , it calls for a serious planning and implementation on healthcare reforms so that we don’t face what America is passing through today! We need to build low cost, user friendly & accessible healthcare system so that people enter the healthcare system earlier and leave it earlier and it does not cost more!! I have changed the centuries old saying ‘Prevention is better than cure’ to ‘Prevention is better than death ™’ Since chronic diseases, if not controlled, lead to disability and finally , death

Problem of distribution: India has a serious problem with the focus & allocation of health resources ; we are quite urban centric. A survey by the Indian Medical Society had found that 75 % of the qualified consulting doctors practice in urban centers, 23 % in semi-urban areas and only 2 % in rural areas, where about 65 % of the population lives

Acute model of care: Though over the past 60 years the disease patterns have shifted from acute and infectious diseases to chronic or life style diseases, still Indian healthcare system emphasizes on acute care and medical care model. This needs an immediate correction. The problem of not adopting preventive care is that aging population requires more healthcare treatments with a lower earning and paying capacity. Earnings reduce with age but healthcare problems increase. This will put our ‘Young’ nation of today into a serious economic, social and development crises in the next 25 years. The ‘baby boomers’ of today will become ‘Patient boomers’ of tomorrow.



A study done by Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that, the healthiest 50 % of Americans account for just 3 % of the annual spending; the sickest 15 % represent nearly 75 %. This should help India understand the importance of preventive measure to keep our population healthy.

I believe that we have already been late for this generation, but we must build a robust healthcare model for the coming generation. We need to bring a change in government policies, medical curriculum, medical practice and channels of delivery of care across the healthcare spectrum. Without an integrated care system, we cannot have results, and without preventive care we cannot have an integrated healthcare system.

We must seriously consider that it might be cheaper to provide free preventive care than to absorb the high cost of chronic care. Preventive care must become the minimum standard of healthcare.

New paradigm of care: We must work towards building a strong support system for our healthcare infrastructure to build an effective healthcare system. This calls for a strong:

• Self control & Self care : Individuals must take to self care and self control and become health conscious individuals. This is where the government can play an important part and sensitize the population on health issues , so that the healthcare becomes effective
• Education system: The Prevention must move from the ‘Medical school’ to ‘Primary school’. It should be ingrained in our school text books and Preventive care is more important than the sex education for which too many efforts are being made too fast! Yoga & Meditation should be taught for at least 30 minutes / day from class 1 onwards
• Occupational health: Work place wellness is not established in India. I would expect that the proactive private sector gets active on providing preventive care to its employees at the work site

Why should a person approach the doctor directly for every small / routine issue?

For Preventive care , we must have two goals :

A. Preventive care has to be the mainstay of the stable healthcare system
B. Preventive care becomes the minimum standard of care

Government: Action points:

• The government must set up an inter-ministerial task force under the Prime Minister’s office or mandate the National Knowledge Commission to make recommendations every five years on healthcare reforms needed , based on the fast changing dynamics and demographics of the Indian population. The ministries to be included are Ministry of health & family welfare, Ministry of labour , Ministry of sports, Ministry of finance , Ministry of defense , Ministry of rural development , Ministry of child & social development ,and


Ministry of tourism .We must look at Brazil’s healthcare system where the health provisions are under the state & municipalities , but the Federal government continues to be responsible for the quality of care
• Health should be a federal subject
• Department of pharmaceuticals ( currently under the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers) must be brought under the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare
• Central Health Authority : We need a central health authority along with similar state health authorities in every state to focus on Health Risk Assessment , Healthcare forecasting, Health Awareness , Immunization , Mother & Child care , Geriatric care , Primary prevention , Occupational health , Disease management , Organ transplants , Emergency care & Palliative care
• Government must take the sole responsibility for awareness creation about wellness and diseases separately, and both should be handled by different heads with proper coordination
• India immediately needs an epidemiological survey. As of now, there is neither an epidemiological survey nor a health risk assessment index to find the actual disease burden. Without that, anything we are doing amounts to Adhocism. We need to be more scientific in whatever we do to have an outcome. The data given for various disease states are thrown by various organizations and the data is hard to believe! Health Census must be done along with the population census.
• Government must take the responsibility for mass screening and mandate the employers to do mass screenings for their employees based on the guidelines for each sector
• Government must issue industry & sector specific recommendatory daily allowance (RDA) for food intake or calorie intake , health & wellness guidelines for employers and employees. If need be, government must appoint a employee health regulator to enforce the guidelines
• All the admissions after high school should have a basic health check as a prerequisite
• People above the age group of 21 should go for a yearly basic health check up
• Marriage certificate should only be issued after a comprehensive risk assessment
• Those with BMI above 23 should be put on annual preventive check
• Those with a family history of any chronic ailment should be kept on OPC – Observatory preventive checks at an early age ( 16 years )
• Government must come out with a health status report on its national leaders and set up a separate health department for political leaders both at national & state level
• Government must focus more on Geriatric care
• Government must address the issue of mental health deficiencies & encourage TeleHealth in Psychiatry seeing the ratio between Psychiatrist and population being 1:1 Million
• Government must start ‘Day Care’ centers for minor surgeries across the nation
• There are thousands of lives lost every year in road accidents. Government must work out organ transplant centers and frame guidelines for cadaver implants.
• The government must start a 24 hour health channel.
• Local governments must start a IVR – Toll free health helpline for the local population with Frequently asked questions on health put in IVR format





Special guidelines to treat chronic diseases:

• The government must immediately start a Central Disease Registry (CDR). All the
chronic disease patients must be registered under the same by the path labs itself
• Once the person is diagnosed with a chronic disease, the entire family must undergo a health risk assessment covering basic checks like BMI, B.P., Sugar, Cholesterol etc. This will be an effective way to monitor and control the chronic disease incidence. Such families should be advised to undergo a yearly basic check to avoid chronic diseases
• Chronic diseases cannot be controlled by prescription alone. It involves a behavioral change. This calls for counseling. Counseling should be made mandatory for chronic diseases. Doctors , Pharmacists and Nurses should be trained in the management of chronic diseases
• Patient’s family must be involved in the management of chronic diseases. Chronic diseases cannot be managed alone; it needs proactive support from the family members. Guidelines should be issued for the same
• Based on the disease state , the patients must be put on the appropriate disease
management program
• The doctors practicing in the field of chronic diseases should not be allowed to practice without a counselor , dietician , Phlebotomist and a fitness trainer
• The local municipality must encourage the formation of patient groups at a local level to help in the self management through ‘role model’ approach and via experience sharing amongst patients. This can be quite effective in the management of chronic diseases
• Nurses & Pharmacists have not been effectively utilized in the management of chronic diseases. These health professionals should be effectively used. In fact, the pharmacists should become the first local touch point for health information dissemination
• Pharmacies must be mandated to provide instant checking like BMI, Sugar, and B.P., Cholesterol etc.
• Pharmacists must be mandated to counsel all chronic patients
• Government must encourage generic prescription in all government hospitals and allow patients to seek generic substitution at the pharmacies.
• All doctors must seek patients nod before prescribing products other than generics
• The government must implement Disease management in the PSU’s immediately to
study the amount of money & lives that can be saved. Also that this can lead to better
outcomes and increased productivity
• Religious leaders must be used to tackle health issues as they can prove really very
effective
• The government must ban Junk foods in schools
• Special emphasis needs to be on Geriatric care and a separate set of guidelines needs to be worked out on the same
• Government must mandate the insurance companies to pay for routine health checks and
preventive care. Home based self diagnostics should be re-imbursed under insurance
• Gram Panchayats must be starting points for information dissemination for rural India.



Primary Healthcare centers should add Telehealth to its faculties to take the health to the rural population. Building and maintaining healthcare faculties in rural India is not viable. But Telehealth is an option worth trying to provide boost to rural health

Standards & protocols in Medical Practice : Due to absence of medical establishment standards , lack of treatment guidelines and protocols ; substandard facilities are mushrooming and malpractices are leading to ‘Over Diagnosis’ and ‘Over Treatment’ The government must play an effective role for the formulation of guidelines and enforce the same effectively . Also , despite having the best of brains and facilities , we are still
using the JCI / Australian accreditation . The government must recognize only the NABH / NABL accreditation for its healthcare facilities and take it international through support and incentives .

The detailed guidelines are expected on:

• Guidelines for screening.
• Guidelines for diagnostics
• Guidelines for treatment of various disease and the line of treatment along with the diagnostic requirements
• Government must come out with grading norms for facilities based on the treatment outcomes, number of beds , clinical staff, facilities , accreditations offered , town class and treatments offered
• Government must decide the price / rate for various treatments & procedures in facilities based on the infrastructure , town class , outcomes data for treating patients & grade of the facility
• Referral protocols for higher diagnosis and treatment
• Rural health guidelines should be formulated

Financial Incentives for the health sector:

• Rapid or instant diagnostic kits should be entitled for lower taxes & duties. Ideally, it should be duty free. But we must also encourage local production
• Telemedicine or Telehealth hold a promise when it comes to healthcare delivery in more than 6.20 lac villages. Such companies should be given a tax holiday for the next 10 years
• Medical imports under PPP must be tax free
• Clinics & Hospitals in rural areas must be given a tax holiday for 10 & 20 years
• Government must give a tax holiday for 3, 5, 7 & 10 years for healthcare facilities in tier 1.2. 3.& 4 class towns
• Preventive checks should be made tax free
• Currently government gives rebate in income tax for medical insurance. The same should be given for preventive check and the amount for such checks should be Rs. 2500 per family member per year. For senior citizens, it should be Rs. 3000 per member per year. Gyms & Yoga club memberships should be included in the preventive check category


• Health professionals working in designated rural areas should be given 50 or 100 % tax free income based on the regional disparities
• Companies that do preventive checkups for employees must be entitled to a tax rebate on such expenses to an extent of 100 %
• Pharmaceutical & other companies that sponsor health checks in communities should be given 50 or 100 % tax rebate for the amount spent.

Health Minister’s Fund – (HMF). The government must create a health minister’s fund to encourage donations from individuals and corporates with 100 % tax exemptions on donations. This fund must be used for providing healthcare to BPL families

Compulsory Health Savings Account(CHSA) & Health Cess: We need to look at innovative ways to fund healthcare. Levying 1 % health cess on taxes would collect Rs.4000 crore.

The government can draft a CHSA under three classifications and people can opt under the scheme as per their entitlement. The people enroll in CHSA at an age of 25-30 years and contribute a monthly amount for 30 years. Say, for example, a category A person pays Rs. 1250 per month per family for the first 10 years, Rs. 1500 per month for the next 10 years and Rs. 2000 per month for the last 10 years. So in 30 years the family saves USD 31000 and can get free healthcare for the rest of his life. Also, if we assume that the dollar is at an exchange rate of Rs. 45 & an annual interest rate of 7 % is accrued on this ; the middle class which is assumed to be 150 million now, grows to 200 million in the next 20 years and 250 million in the next 30 years. The government will stand to collect USD 1 trillion after 10 years, USD 2 Trillion after 20 years and USD 6 Trillion after thirty years. . The money thus collected can be used to make the best of healthcare facilities.

Indigenous research: We have sent Chandrayaan to the moon and made our own sub marine. But we have not done great research in medical technology and pharmaceuticals. Technology and equipment import constitute a major cost in a healthcare facility set up cost. These costs are passed on to the patients. This can only come down if we can have our own technology. Irony is that, we export our brains and then import technology at an exorbitant cost!! We have the best institutes & best brains to train them but we are not able to retain them! The government must frame strict deterrents to avoid brain drain. Healthcare will only become affordable if the cost of set up comes down. This can happen if we have indigenous technology. Going forward, healthcare will be totally technology driven.

AYUSH Professionals: The government must integrate and effectively utilize AYUSH professionals in mainstream healthcare & rural health. This could be the best way to make use of the resources at hand.

Medical Curriculum: Far reaching changes are required in medical curriculum

•
•

• The government must not allow M.B.B.S. to do Post graduation till they spend 3 months each into rural health, telemedicine, pharmacies and Panchayat health centers.
• Private medical college students should also undergo the same internship as is for students of government medical colleges.
• Those health professionals ( doctors , nurses and pharmacists ) working in rural areas for three & five years must be given special quota / guaranteed admission in P.G. courses or given fast track promotion in government jobs
• Government must provide higher pay and perks ( including tax free income ) and more paid leaves to doctors working in rural areas
• Doctors who working in rural areas should be given loans at a cheaper rates from the ‘Central Health Fund’ to set up medical clinic / facilities

In Mexico, absence of proper planning during the 70’s lead to oversupply of physicians in the 80’s. India should avoid the same and plan carefully.

Rural health needs a special consideration. In rural India, whenever a patient is taken to the nearest urban center for treatment, at least two family members accompany him. That’s the reason why even the 20 % beds mandated free for BPL families remain unused. Government must provide for free accommodation to these two attendants of the rural population who travel to urban areas for treatment including free train & bus travel. Telemedicine should be the core to rural health model in India

New Models : The government must ideate and try new low costs model where the primary preventive care can be availed at Rs.2 per day. Imagine, if we get 5000 people to pay Rs. 2 a day , we can have Rs.3 Lac per month per facility .This can be used to have two full time doctors , two nurses , two counselors to provide basic care to the population of 5000 people round the clock. I believe these are the models to be tried and implemented

The government’s role must logically move from a provider of care to payer and a regulator. Though government must be responsible for primary care,disaster management & sudden outbreaks but it must also focus on

• Awareness and education about health & wellness for the common man
• Primary care and prevention
• Rural health
• Regulation and standardization

The government must follow the chart mentioned below when approving secondary & tertiary care facilities in any place based on the population size as the standard for population health improvement. Government must not approve the higher end facilities for a geography till the facilities are existing for the levels below ,for which the approvals are sought. The government must also encourage private players by incentivizing them for providing primary care before approving them for secondary and tertiary care

Level of care Population Size Facilities Services provided
1 1000 Telemedicine, Panchayat level dissemination of info. Basic health services must be provided
2 10,000+ PHC – Panchayat Health Center Trained Nurse Practitioner
3 50,000+ Primary Hospital with 25 beds Primary Care
4 100,000 + Secondary Care Hospital 100 beds Secondary Care
5 500,000+ Multi Specialty Care hospital 250 beds Tertiary Care
6 10,000,00+ Institute of Medical Sciences Centers of Excellence

Private Public Partnerships (PPP): I have been actively involved from the very beginning in the PPP document authored by CII. I have already written in detail about the success factors for PPP in healthcare. The government must enter into PPP only for secondary and tertiary care. There is a lack of trust, transparency, speed and continuity in the government policies. Government does not trust the private players and Vice Versa. All PPP’s must pass the test on the four parameters

• Scientific credibility
• Operational stability & scalability
• Financial feasibility
• Political viability

Medical Tourism: Medical tourism can be a big revenue earner for the Indian healthcare system. But there should be a segregation of DHSP – Domestic healthcare service providers and IHSP – International Healthcare Service providers

Government must provide land at highly subsidized rates or free, at or near the airports, for hospitals and facilities catering to medical tourism ,and take the profits as a sleeping partner

For private players entering into IHSP, for each IHSP facility they set up, they should set up three DHSP.



Government must come up with an insurance scheme for international medical tourists coming to India for medical treatments to encourage and promote medical tourism

We have the best of tertiary care in India but what we lack is the basic primary & preventive care in the country .If we don’t start healthcare with preventive care and continue with chronic care management; one day, the entire healthcare system will become over burdened, under- funded and outdated – no matter what we do !

We have to move from being a ‘Disease focused’ and a ‘Doctor centric’ system to a system that revolves around younger populations, and where nurse and a pharmacist play the role of a health coach

The government has to be careful in our healthcare capacity building. One side, we need to increase the healthcare service providers, on the other hand, we have to work to reduce the burden of ‘Killer’ diseases. A very strong primary and preventive care model needs to be embedded in the system.

Healthcare is the largest service industry in terms of revenue and the 2nd largest after education in terms of employment

‘World Class’ standards in India is not the goal, ‘India Class’ standards for the world should be our goal. We can teach the world how to run an effective healthcare system

I am quite convinced that committed leadership will take cognizance of this note and take measures to implement the suggestions after a debate with all the stake holders in the continuum of care . Should you need any assistance at my end , feel free to connect.

With best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
CC.
Sonia Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi
Dr.Murli Mahohar Joshi
Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Shri L.K.Advani
Smt. Sushma Swaraj
Shri Dinesh Trivedi
Sitaram Yechury
Members of Parliament
Sam Pitroda
Secy , Health & Family Welfare , GOI
Dr.K.Srinath Reddy
Chief Minister’s of States
Dr.Salim Hebayeb, WHO
Gerard M La Forgia , World Bank

The growth story of India is questionable - Rajendra

India’s questionable growth story :


While the government’s overall inflation figures remained at record lows of 0-1.5 %. The average wholesale price of food items had increased by a whopping 17.5 % in past one year as per the government announcement yesterday

Despite the growth of 6.8 %, the country’s fiscal deficit at the end of the first half of the current year ( April – September 2009 ) stood at 7.9 % of the nominal GDP compared to 4.4 % in the corresponding period last year . It is very difficult to contain the deficit at budget targets . Pranab Mukherjee has estimated the full year fiscal deficit in the budget 2009 presented in July at 6.8% . A sharp pick up in the economic activity will not help bridge the gap as the tax collections remain depressed.

If we strip the government consumption , then the real growth for the rest of the economy was 4.9 % in the September quarter, at 1999-2000 constant prices. That's lower than the 5.5. % year-on-year growth notched up during the preceeding quarter. The last instalment of the pay commission arrears has already been paid , so no further boost to government consumption is expected. What will happen to growth realising that the rain God were not approving the plight of farmers under the current government and thought it wise to boycott India !!

How will the government fund ambitious schemes ?

What is the plan to bridge the deficit ?

Is divesting PSU a short term goal ? If we keep divesting this way , after some time , when the deficit widens , we will be left with nothing except to sell the nation !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.org

Lessons to learn - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Price rise & Inflation: ‘Elecflation’ –i coined this term for ‘election induced inflation’. This is a recurring phenomenon

I see a lot of hue and cry on the inflation and price rise of vegetables and pulses. While the public is worried, government seems to be doing nothing on it. Why???
Answer: Whenever there are elections, the business houses are forced to contribute to election funding or false cases built up against business houses to make money to fund the party. So how will the business houses recover the money they have spent for the elections? So very naturally, the politicians are also obliged to allow these business houses to hoard and sell at higher prices till they recover in multiples of the money paid for fighting elections. It is a simple election driven price inflation. Remember , same politicians and business houses will meet again for the next elections

I was recently addressing a gathering and i told the people that we don’t have any political parties in India. The people were quite anxious to know what made me conclude this? To which, i explained that what we have today are ‘election parties’ & not ‘Political parties’. Election parties come up with a manifesto during elections and then forget everything for another five years and spring into action again gearing for the next mandate. If we had political parties or politicians then we would have a long term vision for this great nation. Unfortunately, we don’t have politicians. A politician or a political party cannot run a nation of 1.2 billion population without an agenda for 10, 20 & 30 years. Adhocism has not taken this nation anywhere in the last 60+ years

Also, no politician or party can take credit for India’s growing middle class. What we are today is not by design but by default and fault of failed policies and politicians. Fortunately, it puts India in the right spot at the right time. But we should not brag about it but we must have a long term vision and policies and actions to shape the destiny for the nation

Just think, 1/6th of India is under naxalites, 4/6th of India is poor. So whatever you read or see as India opportunity is just representing 1/6th of India. I.e. 200 million Indians are in a position to afford what you have. This blog will only reach may be 40-50 million people. Isn’t that an irony of a nation with 1.2 billion brains? We are exporting brains and then importing technology. We are not a democracy but a pseudo-democracy for just 200 million Indians

There are clearly three segments of Indian population.

People who vote (majority are paid or coerced to vote – these are the people who fall into 800 million people living @less than 2 $ a day)

People who make others to vote (town class or semi urban middle class or Political workers.)

People who are voted – run into a few million as elected or rejected candidates who have the best of all available and are above the law of the land)
It is a time to change ................................The democracy that is India is for 1/6th of the population. Remaining 5/6th is either under the slavery of naxalites or poverty.

On 25th /11 there was a function organised at the Mumbai police Gymkhana. As a trustee of the United Force of India i was asked to share my views on the Mumbai security after 26/11. I only asked one question to the journalists. If after one year of attacks our elected representatives can be manhandled in the Vidhan Sabha and our journalists can be beaten and their office vandalised. Where are we? What security are we speaking about? We are just waiting for another attack to happen and it will!!

Now coming to Dubai crises: For long, i have believed that we are chasing wrong goals as an economy. In fact, on 19th January, i wrote a letter to our Hon’ble P.M. that we should not build our economy on dollars but it should be built on agriculture and SME’s. Free dollar flow is a sign of future pain!! .

See the case of India’s stock markets . The FII’s invest in it raise the index , exit and book profits . Poor Indian retail investors lose when such FII’s exit . But you cannot do anything . The big fish make money . My perception is that , this is happening with the concurrence of the people who are a party to such ‘short money making tactics’. Every politician starts as a humble farmer or a worker and then becomes a ‘uncrowned king’ with schools , charitable institutions , real estate , business ventures unheard and unimagined by people like you and me . We have seen the case of YSR’s son, Reddy brothers , Madhu Koda and the list is end less ............

Take the case of Dubai. Now people have started calling it ‘Doob Gayee’ . Dubai built their economy on dollars and we know their fate. If India does not focus on Agriculture and SME’s. We will cry with pain. I recently read Dr. Manmohan Singh statements that with strong FDI inflows, our economy is slated to grow 9 %. I sometimes, don’t understand why are we still dependent on the foreign money? This FII / FDI are like a refined and sophisticated terms for EIC – East India Company. They will take profits abroad. These instruments have only one goal – Feast on the growing middle class. Do we allow them? The day we make our ’Farmers , the father of the nation , the nation will turn into a vibrant economy’. I wish Dr.Singh to say some day that our farmers contribute to the growing GDP and SME contribute to a majority of dollar inflow .

Lastly, i must quote our Environment Minister, Mr. Jairam Ramesh - ‘If there was a noble prize for filth, India would get it hands down as there would be no competitors’. I expected our M.P. friends to seek his resignation for officially calling India a land of filth. He is a union minister and he should have abstained from making such a degrading comment on this great nation. Anything he says impacts India’s image negatively. What will people think about India when they read about this ‘noble prize’ eligibility for India? Do we expect more tourism with such statements or do we get more sanitation funds from WB / WHO etc with such irresponsible comments? Is the entire nation full of filth? Mr. Minister, please apologise for your senile statements and resign . You are getting your perks from this nation of filth .
Does it not prick your conscience to bring about a change in the nation than to complain??

Each one of you can bring about a small change in the scheme of things . Think small , aim big and act fast .




Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country FirstEmail: President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org

Plenary address at the India Health Summit - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Plenary address at the India Health Summit 2009, Rajendra Pratap Gupta, President, DMAI & Director, DMAA- The Care Continuum Alliance, USA

Dear Friends,

This is an interesting audience which includes policy makers and those who can influence policy makers. I have a short message for you all. I feel so great about our nation. The developed world has failed in healthcare, and fortunately, in India, we are starting to build our healthcare system. This is the time when we can have the strong fundamentals ingrained in our population health improvement model

According to Kaiser Family Foundation the healthiest 50 % of Americans account for just 3 % of the annual spending; the sickest 15 % represents nearly 75 %. Half of the spending goes to those 55 and over, a third to those over 65 and over. In Europe, the chronic care accounts for 70 % of the healthcare expenses.

Today, we are the youngest nation with an average age of approximately 26.5 years, 30 years from now; we will be the oldest nation. Also, that we will become older before we become wealthier.

At present, we are not able to provide healthcare to more than 65 % of our population, and we are growing in numbers and age both. If we don’t pay attention to preventive healthcare, our health systems will soon become over burdened, under-funded and outdated as well.

This sums up clearly that we need primary preventive care as the starting point for healthcare and secondary preventive care in the continuum of care. We have the best of tertiary care in India but preventive care is missing!!

I believe that the biggest threat to our healthcare system is our generation. Our ‘lifestyle’ will lead to ‘disorders’ that will become the ‘Chronic diseases’ for us, and ‘Genetic disorders’ for our very own next generation. It is a call to action.

I must reach out to you all the come and participate in the three Global campaigns that I am starting at the Disease Management association of India

1. Red Flag campaign - If you have BMI above 23. Work Hard. Did you all ever think that having a BMI at 25 is being at borderline and being predisposed to chronic risks!! Let’s try and get it at 23. A healthier India should be our goal
2. Blue Building Campaign – We have green buildings to conserve energy. What about conserving health and becoming more employee health friendly. let’s have blue buildings, where the employers are proactive about employees health
3. Eat more, Burn more campaign. Have the RDA for each lifestyle. Live happy, live healthy. If you eat more, don’t feel guilty and regret, just you need to work out a little more and burn the extra calories. Isn’t that simple.

Thank you.

Vulgar Salaries - Corporate India

Mr.Salmaan Khurshid
Union Minister for Corporate Affairs
Government of India
New Delhi

Dear Mr. Khurshid ,

I wish to put my view point on your statement made a few days ago on the Vulgar salaries. Since i was travelling so i could not send this earlier .

Recently there has been a lot of hue and cry created due to a statement made by you. Earlier a similar statement had come from Dr. Manmohan Singh. According to you, corporate honchos are drawing salaries that are 12500 times the per capita income of this nation

I am not at all happy with your statement . I recall my letter to Dr. Manmohan Singh in January 09, wherein i requested that the salaries of the public representatives must be made more lucrative to attract the best brains

Also, that I must walk you through some of the realities in the corporate world and the politician’s working so as to make a correct assessment and a logical conclusion.

Firstly , Mr.Salmaan Khurshid , you must question why the governments in the last 62 years have not been able to increase the per capita income in this nation ? If the per capita income would have grown sufficiently , then you would not have a devastating comparison of 1:12500 ? Prime Facie your governments are at a fault for the backward development of this nation on the basis of caste and regions , and focussing on the real issues

Also , that the corporate world have created wealth for the nation and politicians have taken the nation’s wealth to Swiss Banks ? Did you take this into account before your statement ?

Corporates have created millions of Jobs. Be it TATA’s , Birla’s , RPG or Reliance or any big or even the smallest corporate house . These people have a lot of responsibility to deliver & risks to take at the cost of their family and social life. Still of whatever they earn , you ( i mean the government ) takes 50 % as taxes , both direct and indirect taxes. Needless to mention, about the income that government makes from the corporate taxes that the companies pay due to the hard work and intelligence of these executives !! . If they earn Rs.50 crore a year after delivering billion of dollars for the nation’s economy & creating lacs of jobs, what is wrong in that ? You forget that Ambani’s themselves contribute about 10 % to the total tax kitty of this nation ? What an irony that you would pat your back with his 60 % voluntary salary cut . Anyways, he has his net worth in billions of dollars as stakes in RIL etc........ You must think of nationalising his stake in RIL

Did you also take into account the CSR ( Corporate social responsibility ) that the corporates undertake ?

Mr. Minister , did you ever consider that government run companies are ‘Toxic assets’ till your people run it, and they become ‘Exotic assets ’ once they are privatised !! Because when you pay peanuts , you get monkeys !!

Today , you go all over the world and scream of the India’s IT & Telecom numbers . This is done due to the hard work of Private CEO’s and not political monkeys !! You had the monopoly of BSNL & MTNL . What great job have you done despite the monopoly ? You privatised VSNL to TATA’s and it is doing good. You could not make good business out of it. In the 60’s when the private sector wanted to grow you licensed it and even nationalised it, claiming it was the right thing to do . After messing it for 40 years , now you are privatising and you believe that it is the best thing to do ? Are you not fooling the public ? You all are privatising as you don’t have the money to run the government !! That’s the truth .

Let me show you what you politicians do. Here are some examples

Centaur hotel at Mumbai airport was sold to Batra Hospitality for Rs. 85 crore . Without doing anything , Batra Hospitality sold it to Sahara for Rs. 143 Crore within a few weeks . And its occupancy is 100 % at any given point in time. What was your minister doing when Centaur failed to deliver ? What was the basis of his selling to Batra and not to Sahara directly ? Reason out why the hotel was sold at such a low cost to Batra Hospitality ? Government lost due to a minister that was not at all as competent as Batra Hospitality executives or .......................

Your Current Civil Aviation minister had lost the election in 2004, despite that he was made the minister . Under his leadership, Indian airlines would stand to lose Rs.5000 Crores this year . Is this how a corporate CEO performs when he takes the so called ‘Vulgar’ salaries? Give me one example in India where the CEO gives such a humongous loss and still continues !!

India is facing an unprecedented shortage of agriculture products ( grains etc due to erratic and insufficient rains ). Please check the rule book of the FCI (Food corporation of India ) godowns ( warehouses ). 2.5 % of wastage is permissible ( please correct me , i may be wrong on this info). This means for one lac ton of grains , 2500 tons of wastage is permissible !! How efficient is this ? Please privatise and see the magic !!

Mr. Telecom Minister is delaying the allocation of 3G spectrum. It is estimated that the spectrum allocation would earn the government anywhere between Rs.20000 to 35000 crore . Ministry has already delayed the spectrum allocation by more than a year . If he takes it to two years . Just the interest loss to the government on the spectrum fees would be as high as Rs. 7000 crore ? Wish you had a corporate CEO taking Rs.100 Crore a year salary and saving you Rs.6900 crore ( Assuming a loss of Rs.7000 crore on the interest income ) ? Does it sound ‘Vulgar’ ? And , interestingly, even after giving such a massive loss to the government exchequer . Your minister has the ‘Cheeks’ to make tall statements and he is not accountable . Had it been a corporate CEO issue , he would have been removed ‘unceremoniously’ from the board , and his career would have ended forever !!

Sometime in 2007,i had a chance to meet once of the relatives of your Telecom Minister Mr.A.Raja . His relative asked for 10 lacs to make ten calls on behalf of the Minister to corporates irrespective of the outcome . What a business model ? Dare to act ? Please initiate a CBI inquiry against Mr.Raja’s assets and the truth should be out .

Earlier , you had the license Raj that killed the corporate world . Now you are trying to license the salaries ? Do you want corporate CEO’s to meet the Minister for taking approval of the salary hikes ? So that you all can start making money on corporate salaries ? Have some shame Mr. Minister !

When parties go to collect donations for the elections , why do you not talk about this ‘Vulgar salaries’. Shamelessly, you collect money from corporates and then have the ‘balls’ to talk nonsense !!

Do you also have a figure of the cost of buying an M.P’s vote in the ‘floor test’ of the house ? For an ordinary MLA it is about 50 core !! That’s what we have always heard or read in the news . Does this not sound ‘Vulgar’

When your allies ask for ‘Plum postings’ in Ministries what does it mean ?

Mr. Khurshid, let us check what the Minister’s take as salaries and perks:

• Average minister get’s an M.P.’s basic salary of Rs.1.92 Lac per annum
• Rs.24000 additional
• A Bungalow in Delhi – Costs upwards of Rs. 200 crore at today’s prices and would mean a rental of Rs.60 lacs a year
• A staff strength of 16 for cabinet ministers and 13 for Deputy ministers
• Plus Security Guards
• A fleet of three cars with Petrol ???
• Unlimited domestic and international calls
• Now ‘Cattle Class’ travel and also private jet’s and government choppers used for luxury travel – cost cannot be calculated off hand .
• A MPLAD fund of Rs. 2 crore for expenditure
• Above all . No accountability !!

Do you think that an M.P. can represent 1.9 million people and win an election at these salaries and perks ? unofficially , the average cost of becoming an M.P. is Rs. 20 crore . That is the reason that most of the current lot of M.P’s are either owners of media houses , educations trusts , shady businessmen or sons and daughters of politicians .Pay decent salaries to your M.P’s, rather than being jealous of the corporate salaries !! Corruption in politics is only, because all of us expect a lot from our politicians and they are grossly underpaid . My view point is , that each M.P. represents an average of 1.9 million citizen, and they must be paid a between Rs.5-10 crore per year as salary to get the best out of them.

With 545 M.P’s in Lok Sabha and 245 in Rajya Sabha working for this nation . We still had a staggering fiscal deficit of Rs. 2,10,000 crore in January 2009 and counting . It works out to a loss of Rs.575 cores a day , 23.95 crore per hour or Approx. Rs.40 Lac a minute. Does it not make sense to pay each M.P. a salary of Rs.5 -10 crore a year and get the best brains ? You all are penny wise and pound foolish policy makers !!

What a colossal opportunity loss for India due to ‘mediocre brains’ and ‘low salaries’. Please re-consider the salaries, and we ( at least i would be for sure ! ) would be glad to join !!

I know that recently , Mukesh Bhai decided to take a 60 % cut in his salary so Salmaan Khurshid can pat his back . Don’t take common man for a ride Salmaan Sahab . Your statements are a proof of your getting distracted by handling the ministry of corporate affairs . You should be made either the rural development minister , NAREGA , JNRHM or the minister of telecom . Your mouth would be shut for the next few years !! After all they are ‘Plum postings’ !!

Don’t forget that until 1980’s India was only known for poverty , population & corruption. It is the private sector that has taken India where it is today. Don’t try and meddle with the sector

Though , i must make a point that a very few corporate CEO’s in India take a salary of about Rs.10 crore or more . They are a handful in a land of 1.2 billion . Pray to God that we have more such CEO’s so that India can grow more . I want a wealthy India . You might say it is ‘Vulgar ‘ to think so !

Regret to write to you this email, but can’t stop expressing the thoughts

With no wishes or regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President
Countryfirst
office@rajendragupta.org
President@countryfirst.org
+91-922 33 44 542


C.C.
Mrs.Sonial Gandhi
Dr.Manmohan Singh
Rahul Gandhi
Sharad Pawar
Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi, Chairman , Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance
Sitaram Yechury
A.P.J.Abdul Kalam
Shiv Khera
Ratan Tata
Mukesh Ambani
Anil Ambani
Media

USA & the New World Order- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Speech delivered by Rajendra Pratap Gupta at the US-ASIA Business forum at Los Angeles , USA on 12th September 2009 at the Los Angeles Convention Center , LA, USA

Global Economy – in the new world order

Good Morning ladies and Gentlemen

A very interesting session !!

Like an earth quake changes the topography , the recession changes the eco-geography ( Economic Geography ) . Every time a recession has sets in , the world is put on a reset button. We have seen in the past that the earlier recessions have changed the world order. The 20th century recession changed the world .The supremacy of the British empire ended paving the way for a bi-polar world from a uni-polar world. This recession will shift the world order again . It will now change to a multi-polar world . It is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world to a multi-polar world

For more than a century since the invention of the Steam Engine, America has been a source of inspiration and awe for the world. Today , it is a source of learning and unlearning . It has shown the difference between being ‘Big’ and being ‘Great’.

Over the years , we have also seen the growing interdependence of the developed economies on the developing world.

We have seen how G-4 nations, the group of four biggest economies have, over a period of time expanded to G-5, G-8, G-14 & now G-20. After the recent crises , India, China & other developing economies have been invited to participate and play a role in revival of the Global economy. We are just seeing the economic evolution , which is similar to the Human evolution. It was earlier the survival of the biggest , then came the survival of the fittest and now will be the survival of the most agile & interdependent economies .

We have seen that the corporations that stood tall for over 150 years, collapsed in weeks last year. It had a cascading effect . Companies that were associated with such global corporations suffered huge losses. Nothing is infallible in this dynamic world. We need to have foresight , intelligence & be responsible to keep standing tall.

I see that there has been a lot of hue and cry on outsourcing, and I don’t understand how can people drive the market by such ad hoc policies ? We must not forget that outsourcing was started to create economic, internal efficiencies and customer focus , and this finally lead to Globalization. Globalization is an irreversible process . It is a fact that market conditions drive the economies today. It is more important to see the index of the stock exchange every day and not the GDP of a nation to gauge the market sentiment and the economic outlook. Today, the companies are not driven by market share but by share market . So are the economies. We must not forget that the developed economies or the world class cities & global conglomerates have been built by immigrants and locals working together . Today, this is more relevant . We have moved to an interdependent World

Out sourcing is market driven and it will always exist, where ever companies & countries want to grow .

This year, for the first time, we have seen that about 20000 of the 65000 H1B VISA’s have not been used out of the yearly quota . This signals a drastic shift . Till last year , the applications were over quota on the first few days of the opening . And there used to be a lucky draw for allocating H1B Visa to applicants in India. Suddenly , there are no takers this year. The very ‘brand America’ is hit badly.

Today, there is one world economy interlinked with three category of customers – developed , developing and under-developed countries

The developed countries have reached the peak and are saturated , and growth is going to be marginal . Investments will not be forth-coming in such a scenario and money invested might not yield good returns . The major corporations from the developed world need to support and get support from the rest of the world for future growth.

Developing countries like India & China support more than 2.4 Billion consumers . A great place !! These customers need more investment, and growth & returns would be fantastic . These countries also need to learn from the experience of the developed world , they need knowledge sharing , technology support & investment to scale up and work with the developed world

Under –developed countries; The more we invest, the more better & bigger markets we will be able to create for developed & developing countries . This is the future

Today , the mix of the world economies present a unique synergy and a tremendous opportunity to work together and progress; much more , much faster. There is no competition at all globally , we just require to understand the growth equation in the world order & invest , collaborate and scale much ahead . Horizons are expanding as we are trying to reach them. The world is not just a market where we represent either sellers or buyers , but it is a family knit more closely than ever before . Globalization is not just irreversible but is also indispensible force that drives us together , ahead . Remember , we are equity partners in the global economic progress where wars drive down our returns and growth increases our returns . We know that , today, business interests drive the political decisions . So we require a more close and a strong business relationship between the developed , developing and the under-developed economies to ensure a lasting peace and progress universally.

For more than a decade , America has been a land of opportunity for the rest of the world . Today, the rest of the world is a land of opportunity for America .
I would like to define the developed , developing and under-developed economies as the past , present and future of the new world order and without past , you cannot plan your future !

Two important points to note :
First : There is a reversal of destinations , innovation has moved out of the developed world , as innovation always follows the struggling race. Today , developing and under-developed world houses the world’s best innovative minds & the real consumers . They are the fertile economies . Let’s accept this fact and shape our vision accordingly. The destinations have reversed in the last 15 years and we need to see them as interdependent destinations

Second: You cannot give up outsourcing and still sell your products and services to the developing and under-developed countries. You need to understand that the developing economies are also the consumers. Today China might be a developing economy but also is the biggest lender to America & has 1.3 billion consumers . If China decided to en-cash all the American bonds , the American economy will come down today evening . But we understand that the valuation of dollar is what holds the value of Chinese economy’s reserves. If China decides to en-cash US securities , Dollar will fall and so both the economies will collapse simultaneously. So today , we are closely inter woven and cannot bully a nation. We are partners in progress and partners in downfall alike . Today no country can be independent in resources to meet its population’s needs without interdependence . We depend on oil from Middle East , manufacturing from China & IT & Knowledge from the eastern countries like India . Indian & Chinese economy suffered a hit due to slowing down of the US economy but do you know why Germany slowed down ? Because the Chinese and Indian companies stopped buying heavy machinery from Germany and so was the case with many such countries . It was not just the US economy driving down production , it was also the developing economies that affected the developed world. We have to understand the fact that, it is a either win –win –win or a lose-lose-lose for the interdependent world in today’s equation. The world has come close together like one family during this crisis . We need to use this as an opportunity to develop more understanding for a longer and a deeper global partnership so that we can avoid future recessions . We are all living in a fully integrated and inter-dependent world. It is like a necklace . One weak link can break the entire chain and the necklace will fall off.

Also, America needs to have a re-think on some of its strategies . It needs to invest more on development of the developing world . Just think $ 568 billion was given as aid in S. Africa for the last 42 years and more than $ 642 Billion is being spent on Iraq war . Today the world could have been a much better place & probably out of recession, had the war money gone to the development of the world’s under-developed and developing economies . These could have been the biggest customers for US companies !! We should not forget the point that the majority of the biggest corporations in the world are from America .

Globalization according to me, means a truly interdependent and an intertwined world.

So, it is clear that we live in a truly interdependent world & that we need more even distribution of opportunity and challenges all over the world , and invest more on economic opportunities than enhancing military capabilities; to share more wealth to a much larger mass of population . Thriving businesses can do that faster without much involvement from the government . The forums like US-ASIA business forums must happen more frequently to develop an understanding , partnerships and facilitate a better flow of resources , ideas , goods & services to all the three categories of customers & vice versa

I would suggest my friend Kevin Kaul to take the US- ASIA business forum to a much broader scale and help develop the understanding of interdependence of the new world order between the past , present & future i.e. developed , developing and under developed economies to bring all round progress for the whole world
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your day

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

515-450-8036 (USA)
+91-922 33 44 542 ( India )
+971-553 121829 (UAE )

Email : office@rajendragupta.org
office.rajendra@gmail.com

Where are we headed - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Where are we heading as a nation – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Let’s examine the state of the nation after the election. It is good that the public voted out all the nuisance mongers like Lalu, Mulayam, and Mayawati & Jayalalitha. Public is growing aware and taking an active interest in the governance of the nation.
Let’s see where are we now?

Rural India

NAREGA – This is the over hyped scheme of the regime. Recently, a study revealed interesting statistics about NAREGA.
• Only 10.62 % of the total 33.89 million registered rural households in 2007-08 were provided 100 days of employment
• The national average of the number of work days per household in NAREGA was only 48 in the last fiscal year. Less than 50 % of what was targeted
• 80 % of the of the households said that they did not get the work within the stipulated 15 days time of demand for work in writing , nor were they paid any unemployment allowance
• It was found that only in 42 % of households could women share the one-third of the allocated person-days ( wage days )
• It is also doubtful if any permanent assets can be created with unskilled labour

Agriculture:

Rain gods have shattered the claims that rural India was shining that the rural economy was unaffected by the global crisis. With drought rampant in most parts of the country. It is going to spell disaster. It is really painful to see that the image of the farmer has not changed in India despite 62 years of independence. When you think about the farmer. The image that comes to mind is that of a ‘half clad, dark skinned frail old man looking at the sky covering his fore head with his hand ’.
All our leaders forgot that ‘Farmers of the nation are the fathers of the nation’
Poor planning for farmers have led to a stage that the government had to push over 7 billion dollars to rekindle the rural India.
Prices of the agricultural produce are going sky high, and the grocery items are supposed to reach a new high from the next month onwards when the rainy season is over. Adding to this, about 70 % of the population lives below the poverty line revealed a national study early 2009.

Aviation sector:

Thanks to our efficient Aviation Minister, the biggest and the only government carrier is bankrupt. All the airlines are bleeding. New airports are in bad shape, the waiting time is an average 30 minutes before landing and 20 minutes before takeoff. Air India burnt more than Rs.150 Crores for the waiting time in the air.

Foreign policy:

We are surrounded by hostile neighbors and all the time is spent in fire-fighting with Srilanka, Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bangaldesh and Burma. With such ‘un-cooperative’ neighbors. In addition to this, we don’t share the same relations with US & USSR (CIS). USA is openly supporting Pakistan with arms and ammunitions ,and doing a lip service to India.

With such relations, do we not conclude that the foreign policy is a total failure? Our entire diplomatic energy is wasted balancing equations of power
Sharm-Al-Sheikh was another blunder after JLN took Kashmir to United Nations. We must wait and watch as the future unfolds in the Indian Foreign diplomacy.

Defense & Internal Security

Our moon mission is a failure, our fighter planes are being called flying coffins. And there is a serious issue with attracting talent in the army.
Earlier it was Kargil, Kandahar , Kashmir and then it was terror attacks. We are still waiting for the next anniversary of attacks to repeat. We are not prepared to avert any attacks

Healthcare

Neither there is Health nor care. Swine flu is taking its toll and health minister is giving absurd statements. Millions of kids die every year due to malnutrition. 75 % of the population is anemic. The Cardiac diseases and diabetes are taking away millions of Indians away from us every year with India not having an effective coverage system.

Judiciary

With Crores of cases pending in courts , anyone who says he respects judiciary is respecting the inefficient and corrupt and insulting the nation. We can certainly be forced to abide by the decisions of the courts but the question of respecting the judiciary in its current form is not acceptable

Opposition

At this point in time, Indian democracy should have has a strong opposition. Unfortunately, BJP is paying for its misdeeds and image and self projection issues of its top two leaders. It is high time; it shapes up to ensure that it plays the role of an impactful opposition party in India.

Hope that the good sense will prevail


Rajendra Pratap Gupta
office@rajendragupta.org
0922 33 44 542

Address to the students if ISCS, Indira Group as Chief Guest - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Dear Friends,

Good morning, Congratulations and a warm welcome to Indira Group. You have embarked on an important stage of your career.

When I was invited as a Chief Guest, I had another meeting planned at Guwahati today, but I cancelled it and came here. I recollected a discussion with one of the senior most professors of Welingkar institute a few months ago.

I was looking for a good management institute for admission of one of our family friends. So I talked about this to Indira School, D.Y.Patil and Welingkar. While I was chatting with my Professor friend , he told me , Indira Group had won the maximum awards from the industry, and if I could get a seat there , nothing like it ! So friends, let me tell you that you are luckily in the management institute that is highly regarded by the industry

Now that you have a wonderful platform of ISCS, you will have the confidence of having graduated from this well known institute. Now you have to make the best out of this institute by your hard work.

I thought it would be helpful if I shared a few important points with you which will help you , based on my experience & learning right from being a research officer to being the Vice President , COO, CEO , Executive Director & Vice Chairman in different companies and across different sectors

First and foremost, what I must share, is the value of time:
Just think , at 99 degrees water is hot and at 100 degrees water is boiling, 1 degree makes the difference. In 800 m 2004 Olympic games , the margin of victory for a gold medal was .71 seconds . In Formula one racing, in last ten years, the average difference between the first and second position has been 1.54 seconds. The first prize is 1.27 (1278813) Million USD and the second prize is .621 Million (621321 USD). A difference is 657492 USD for just 1.54 Seconds, So friends, never forget that time is the most valuable asset that you have. You cannot afford to delay your decisions when you are studying or working

Time Management : What is the common thing that people like Henry Ford , Albert Einstein and Wright Brothers and all of you - 24 hours of time, and what is the difference ? How they managed their time Also, the most important thing every day is not anything else but how you handle the most important task of the day – Time Management. . I suggest that you pick the most difficult or the most time consuming task first and time management will be quite easy. Time management will help you achieve your goals much easily. If you mess up on time management, you will end up frustrating yourself. These four lines are very relevant for you to remember

He slept beneath the moon
He basked beneath the sun
He lived a life of about going to do, and
Died with having nothing done.

Knowledge Managment :Let me ask you a question: How many of you brush your teeth every day? Almost every one! How many of you brush your knowledge every day? Remember both are equally important. I would strongly recommend that you not just study your course, but also regularly update yourself on the economy & all the sectors of the economy on a regular basis and spend at least two hours a day on updating your knowledge. You must read three newspapers a day

How many of you can buy 50 management books or magazines in a year? How many of you can buy one magazine & book per year. Imagine, if you did so, you have access to 200 books & magazines to read. When you leave this institute, you can donate the same to the institute library with your name and batch on the cover page. Not only that this will enrich your batch but also the subsequent batches who join this institute. They might be thankful to you for your contribution when they read your name on the book. If this continues for the next ten years, this institute will have the best library due to an individual’s effort! On the choice of books, I must advice, you pick a wide range of topics from self management to management and beyond.

Working and networking: Networking is equally important as working. In a world connected by internet and VOIP, networking is boundary-less and free. Please keep enhancing your network and maintaining your old network of friends. It will eventually become a big asset

World Economy: Having talked to you about the values of time , knowledge management & networking , now let me update you a bit on the world economy & the industry: We are hearing on the state of the world economy that we are into a deep recession. I believe that, the world has been put on a reset button. Every recession has shifted the global supremacy of economies. The first recession shifted the power from Britain to U.S.S.R. & U.S.A. if I were right, the current recession will shift the powers to multiple economies like China, India etc. So it is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world and now towards a multi polar world. So ,you will have an important role to ensure that Indian corporate world makes the best use of this God send opportunity and that, can only happen when you are prepared to make the best use of this opportunity . You all have an important role to play

Indian Economy: Two sectors have to be changed if the economy has to grow at 9 or 10 %. These are agriculture and SME sector. About 65 % of the population is engaged in agriculture & 40 % farmers are willing to give up this profession. We will have a serious economic crisis if things don’t change. For agriculture, this also presents two great opportunities – organic farming and food processing. You must consider these opportunities once you pass out from this institute. These two opportunities can add real value to the economy both in terms of domestic revival and foreign trade. SME sector contributed to about 39 % of the economic output in India, but in the developed world SME sector account for more than 90 % of the economic output. In India, SME’s are not that competitive, as we lack good managers in the SME Sector. You can contribute a lot to the SME sector to raise the GDP of the nation and contribute to the economy of this nation

Overall economic environment is very dynamic. As students of management, you must keep a watch on the sectors. SME , Agriculture, Retail, Healthcare, Real estate , Tourism, Education & travel will remain the hot sectors for the next few decades. You must add value to these sectors when you join the corporate world.
Having updated you on all these opportunities , I must also let you know two most important realities.
One, that things never come to you without efforts and you will have to work restlessly to achieve them. Most of the time you will be discouraged and turned away but never mind. Keep chasing your passion. In the end, you are bound to succeed...

Chester Carlson was turned down by all the 20 companies he approached, including GE & IBM. But Chester gave us Xerox.

Jeff Hawkins & Donna Dubinsky invented the palm pilot, they were turned away by the VC’s who believed it was a sure fire way to poor house. In 1995, Jeff and Dona settled for USD 44 Million from U.S. Robotics

Same was with John Grisham; he was turned down by about 80 publishers only to become the best- selling author

Marconi was taken to a psychiatrist when he talked about his invention - Telephone

Let me give you examples of a few Indian’s.
Thyrocare – largest path lab in the country. The owner of this lab slept on CST, Mumbai station from August 18-22 in 1982. He went on to do PhD from BAARC. One day he realised what will happen when he retires from BAARC. He quit and started a one room lab at Byculla with three employees, one who would collect samples; other would do tests in the night and the third who would deliver the reports. All three were Dr.A.Velumani. Today, he runs a 500 cr Business

Suman Jha- He went to Russia to study M.B.B.S. Today at the age of 36, he runs a 700 million USD business that he started when he had 100 USD in his pocket. Shreya entertainment and Shreya Life Sciences are his company

So, may be that most of the time you will be discouraged or turned away. Does not mean that you give up. Remember, a setback can let you down or get you more determined. Choice will be totally yours. Second and most important thing, contended people never bring any changes, they happily adapt to the world. It is the dissatisfied, discontented & the restless people who bring about the change. You all must try to be a change agent. India is a land of billion plus people but we only have about 6 major corporate groups. There is another big question. Can we not create more?

Last question :How many of you think that you will settle down in your life in the next 10, 15 or 20 years? You can never settle down in life at any point in time. If you were ever to do that, It will be after death! Being settled is against the rule of life. Check with any doctor. What does it convey from an ECG when it is a straight line? It means the person is dead. So if the ECG is not a straight line , that is a good news . So friends living and being successful cannot be like a straight line . I was talking to my friend who is from the corporate world and known as the biggest business guru and motivational speaker of his time. He was about to venture in a new field. And I asked him, are you willing to give up your earlier venture for the sake of a new venture. He immediately said; No, I am still to settle down .......................So live with the reality. We are never settled in life, we have to keep working & we are never settled and will never be. As you reach the horizons, the horizons will expand. Keep moving . Always remember that life is a moving target

Please work hard, support the right , don’t compromise on the values & be assertive and the world is yours. Try to make it a little better place

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
So friends, it was real pleasure being with you all this morning & i wish you all the very best

Rajendra

Indian Economy & Michael Jackson's dealth - A lot to learn - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Indian Economy Opti – 'mystic' about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?
Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.
Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?
This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic
Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!
No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .
The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .

Budget did not enthuse - Rajendra Pratap Gupta

July 6, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.

Dear Dr.Joshi,

Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!

As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.

I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.

I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.

Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each

Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!

The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!

Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.

My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!

The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly
Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day

National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person

More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.

Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!

I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!

I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.

Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %

UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %

French Economy will decline by 3 %

Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %

Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %

Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %

Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %

Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.

With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.

This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.

Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?

Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!

Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.

Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.

Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.

The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.

My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year and that too, slowly. I don't expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.

Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.

What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.

Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??


Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.

Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!

How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!


Security of the nation- Diplomacy :

Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.

China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours

Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.

Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.

Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.

Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise

Waiting to hear you in parliament

As always, with best regards

A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com