Growth, Recession & Realities

Dear Blog Readers,

Thanks for your continuous feedback . I am attempting to address the issues that you have talked about .

Over the last few months, i have been reading a lot about inflation , double digit growth and so on....................

We need to understand the real issues a little deeper and better if we wish to do something worthwhile for this nation

Consider the following :

A few decades back , government thought that nationalization was in the best interest of this nation and it nationalised the airlines , banks etc.......Now after a few decades , privatization is considered in the best interest of the nation !!!
The government was cursing the huge population in 80”s and termed it as ‘Population Explosion’ . Now the government is talking of the demographic dividend , because everyone across the world is talking about the same ! We are having the government that does not have original ideas but have copy cat versions or China inspired & induced growth !

What is the government doing to convert ‘No productivity jobs into low productivity jobs and finally into high productivity jobs' Every district should focus on productivity . People do not reason the government and never questions the actions and government even does not know if it is doing the right things .

Look at these facts

Between 2010 and 2020, India will add 120 million people in the ‘working age population’ . It will also add 43 Million senior citizens to its population . Does the government have a concrete plan to address this ?

If we do not plan for 120 million people that we are adding to the working age population , we will be provoking between 10-30 % of them into naxalites or anti-social elements . Imagine , 12-36 million gun wielding naxalites !!

If there is no growth , it does not lead to poverty . It either leads to ill health & evil minds . Which is more disastrous than poverty In the next 10 years , some parts of India will become more developed than they are today. We will become a more materialistic nation in places like Mumbai , Goregaon , Bangalore , Pune etc................. Media would have exposed this ‘Have not’s’ to this material world .

This will lead to aspirations in youth for a better life style, and with no means to make it to this elite league with legitimate means , the criminal route to making money will lead to more extortion , more drug lords and criminals in politics – GDP growth can be 8.5 % or 10 % but criminal activity will growth much faster under such conditions . There is no doubt on this . India will become a naxalite factory and will surpass Pakistan in producing anti-social elements

GDP attributable to agriculture is de-growing , GDP attributable to services and industry is growing . Agriculture not only supports 57 % of the work force & has low productivity per capita but has to feed the 1.2 Billion population else , we know the triple digit inflation that will strike India by 2050.

Agricultural productivity can go up if we bring down the cost of logistics from the current of 16 %. Worldwide , it is around 9 % ............. Government must plan in detail how to boost the agricultural productivity
We are treading a difficult path and the "demographic dividend will become a ‘demographic disaster’ or the ‘Demographic bomb’.


People with many educational degrees ( Indian experts from USA recruited by the government as advisors ) are working for people with no degrees (poor population ) . So they do not identify the real problem leave alone addressing the issues . Recently , i have heard about the food coupons being distributed to the BPL families . What a joke ? BPL people do not know how to read and write & also this is bound to be misused ( 10 paisa of every 10 rupees will reach the BPL families )

Few fundamentals have to change .

India has not to change , Indians have to change .

Made in India has to become made in ‘rural India’

We are talking of CSR ( Corporate Social Responsibility ) but what we need is ISR –(Individual’s Social Responsibility )


We are all talking of divestment . The government is looking to raise Rs.40,000.00 crore through divestment but why is government not looking at investing back 10 % of the divestment money to build another PSU that can yield returns disproportionate on its investments ? How about setting up the Solar Energy Corporation of India or the Hydro Power corporation of India ? Build them now . Don’t just sell

Governments tax collection targets have been missed by around Rs. 40000 crore, i am sure that divestment target is also going to be missed !! Where will be the GDP deficit be in 2011-12 ?

Indian government has not just to create jobs ( employment ) but also create entrepreneurs . It has to think inside the box only ( forget out of box ). Imagine , if different cities with tourism potential start training tourist guides , taxi drivers and listing them on a central website . People travelling to these towns can avail the services of the government approved guides at the pre-decided rates & can pay in advance through the website . The money can be transferred electronically directly to the service provider after a referral cut ( government can retail 20 % & transfer 80 % money). Safety & savings for tourists and income for self employed people .

Back to my favourite recession & India :

Why did recession in the USA / Europe not affect India so much Or you all believed that government was able to protect India from recession effectively ? Think about this report

Times of India , 17th March 2010. According to the WHO - UNICEF report ,58 % of all the people in the world who defecate in the open are in India . 638 Million people in India have no access to toilets . Will India, with such living conditions ever get effected by recession ? The same government could not control inflation . Imagine how they can control affects of recession – they faked the efforts and impacts and we all believed it like fools !

In 62 years after Independence , we have more than 60 % population having no access to ( toilets ) hygiene , 2/3rd of the population living in absolute poverty , 1/6th of the nation living in naxalites controlled areas . And we are already a “recession proof” India . Entire India has still not felt the impact of growth except a few urban towns , so recession hitting us is a joke ?

By the way , next few days will show India conquering the world as ‘ BHARTI is acquiring an African Telecom Giant’. Read all the headlines ................................

While you read these headlines , more than 50 % of India will go to sleep without a meal .............................

And also, according to the government , the austerity drive for Indian government is over & our babu’s and politico’s can fly business class, so finally , India is out of recession & in a high growth phase

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : Office@rajendragupta.org